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Light value on river..

  
 
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Alexos
Old 04-06-2007, 02:56 AM     Post subject: Light value on river.. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 50/10/.03.

Is the river value bet standard? ..bet/fold? Why or why not? Thx

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($99.25)
BB ($69.25)
UTG ($233.75)
Hero ($196)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 8.
UTG calls $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($7) 7, 4, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, BB folds, UTG calls $6.

Turn: ($19) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12.

River: ($31) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $25???
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Genitruc
Old 04-06-2007, 03:00 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 wtf is this hand?

I'd pot the river ; think of all the times you raise with AK preflop, the donkey calls, then calls down your 3 barells on a board like this a J6!

If he raises river it's a pretty close fold I think based on his seriously low AF.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Alexos
Old 04-06-2007, 03:08 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
wtf is this hand?
lol

Guess this is a better question:

bz123: raises $188.75 to $213.75 and is all-in
alexos888: folds

EZ fold.
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Genitruc
Old 04-06-2007, 04:55 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 haha nh

would be sick if he showed AA and was doing it for donk-value.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Alexos
Old 04-07-2007, 03:36 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 This ain't PaaartyPooka yo.:P
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sauce123
Old 04-07-2007, 03:14 PM #6 (permalink)  
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raise pf
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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gabe
Old 04-07-2007, 04:04 PM #7 (permalink)  
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ive never bet a river with trips and thought to myself 'this is a light value bet'
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Alexos
Old 04-07-2007, 04:12 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 hehe, I guess thats why I changed my question after.
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dsaxton
Old 04-07-2007, 07:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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You probably have the best hand even if he calls you, so I would bet. If he raises it's an easy fold.
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The_Bankroll
Old 04-07-2007, 07:27 PM #10 (permalink)  
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gabe, he isn't betting trips, he's betting a straight here.

Raise pre-flop if your going to play this hand. gives you a chance to isolate the loose-passive guy.

as played, the river is kind of tricky, and depends on the villan. This is a paired board with 4 to a straight and 3 to a flush, what could your opponent have that he calls with that you beat here? you might be splitting with another 8, and I don't think a flush is out of the question here. I also don't think that AA-99 are that likely, which are the only worse that might pay you off here. I say check behind on the river, and hope your straight is good.
 
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The_Bankroll
Old 04-07-2007, 07:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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one more thing, I ran this through pokerstove just to see how you fare against his range (based on your poker tracker stats, I gave him a range of 50.2%)

Board: 7h 4h 5h 6h 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.451% 52.26% 03.20% 278 17.00 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 44.549% 41.35% 03.20% 220 17.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }

so your barely ahead here, and I don't think you are gaining any value from this river bet.
 
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mcatdog
Old 04-07-2007, 08:46 PM #12 (permalink)  
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The Bankroll, I found your PokerStove numbers impossible to believe, so I ran through PokerStove myself and found that the Hero is ahead 85/15, not 55/45. Are you sure you entered a range of top 50%?

Easy bet.
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piratepeaty
Old 04-07-2007, 09:31 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Easy bet-fold. I don't even think it is close. He calls with all kinds of 7s.
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sauce123
Old 04-08-2007, 08:14 AM #14 (permalink)  
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yea this seems like a super-std bet/fold to me
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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Alexos
Old 04-08-2007, 09:08 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
yea this seems like a super-std bet/fold to me
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