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Lets play a big pot with AQ!

  
 
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Fnord
Old 06-27-2007, 11:03 AM     Post subject: Lets play a big pot with AQ! #1 (permalink)  
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MP seems to be a rather sane, TAggy regular
I've seen BB 3-bet pre-flop at least twice in the couple orbits or so since I sat.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($96.50)
SB ($77.70)
BB ($214.45)
UTG ($158.85)
MP ($279.10)
CO ($98.90)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with Q, A.
1 fold, MP raises to $4, 1 fold, Fnord calls $4, 1 fold, BB raises to $20, MP folds, Fnord calls $16.

Flop: ($44.50) 5, 6, 6 (2 players)
BB bets $24

Easy shove? Should I have just stuck it in pre-flop?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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minSim
Old 06-27-2007, 11:52 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think your preflop line looks like TT, 99 a lot, maybe even 88. Therefor I think a flop shove is getting called relatively light. On the other hand he doesn't call without a pair so it really is marginal. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ is less likely for him to have because you have 1 of the cards. Oh well I'll do some math:

AK 12 combis
AQ 9 combis
AJ 12 combis
KQ 12 combis
Total he folds: 45

AA 3 combis
KK 6 combis
QQ 3 combis
JJ 6 combis
TT 6 combis
Total 24 hands he calls

Wether opponent has 99, 88 and other pairs, A10 etc..and folds or calls isn't really that important. This is actually a very + EV shove, according to my ranges.

(hope my math is ok)
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minSim
Old 06-27-2007, 11:54 AM #3 (permalink)  
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If he doesn't 3-bet AJ and KQ this becomes interesting.
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Fnord
Old 06-27-2007, 12:11 PM #4 (permalink)  
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He's loose enough to call with at least AK here.

Also, I think he's got a lot more crap in his range.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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minSim
Old 06-27-2007, 01:06 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
He's loose enough to call with at least AK here.

Also, I think he's got a lot more crap in his range.
A10 12 combis
A9 12 combis
A8 12 combis
KJ 16 combis
K10 16 combis
AQ 9 combis
AJ 12 combis
KQ 12 combis
Total he folds: 101

AA 3 combis
KK 6 combis
QQ 3 combis
JJ 6 combis
TT 6 combis
99 6 combis
88 6 combis
77 6 combis
66 1 combi
55 3 combis
44 6 combis
33 6 combis
22 6 combis
AK 12 combis
Total he calls: 76

Just play around with the ranges. In general the tigther his preflop 3-bet range and/or the wider his calling range on the flop make the push less +EV, or even -EV.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 06-27-2007, 01:14 PM #6 (permalink)  
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preflop and flop looks like spew no matter how i look at it...

maybe i should go read that gbucks article again.
 
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Genitruc
Old 06-27-2007, 02:43 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 If he's a thinker and doesn't know anything about you then just call flop and check turn or lead turn, depending on the card. He'll NEVER bluff you in this spot since he knows an unknown is unlikely to fold an overpair.

If turn goes check/check then lead river depending on the card.

Problem with this is he can own you by repping a big card that hits but, hey, it might hit you.

I think pushing is fun as well on the flop, but the above move has worked for me countless times vs aggro thinkers.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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jackvance
Old 06-27-2007, 03:30 PM #8 (permalink)  
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jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point
 If he's aware of his image, this push can be problematic because he's gonna call with pretty his entire range that beats you.
Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
 
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zook
Old 06-27-2007, 04:21 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I 3-bet myself pre-flop. As played I don't mind a flop shove. But if you think he's calling with AK here then aren't you mostly folding hands you're ahead of? I mean TT+ are snap calling, maybe 88+. So you're only folding AT+/KQ/sc's. Maybe genitruc's call and get it in later isn't so bad if you have so little fold equity vs. this guy.

I don't like a pre-flop shove b/c it looks so bluffy after a cold-call.
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LimpinAintEZ
Old 06-27-2007, 04:30 PM #10 (permalink)  
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i don't like flop shove - I think a floating line here looks much stronger - plus, thats a serious preflop raise - He may have done it 2x in your orbits so far, but if you haven't seen him showdown crap we can't just put him on garbage - i would put him on QQ+ there....see what he does on the turn and then decide to push - if he's still leading strong he's calling a push most times - Who's calling $20 preflop with a hand that hit the flop?

flop shove looks more like a bluff than anything here -

i think we gotta give some credit sometimes - Just cause he's 3bet doesn't mean he's done it with crap - he could be on a heater...
this space intentionally left blank
 
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mixchange
Old 06-27-2007, 04:45 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I don't get why you would shove the flop. I've never seen a 100NL pf raise of that size that is not a PP. I have seen people 3bet AK against full stacks, but it hasn't made it to $20 pf. Unless you know this guy well it just sounds like pure spew.

Fold PF, or 3bet AQ if you want to rep a bigger hand. Cold calling PF makes your hand look weaker
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LimpinAintEZ
Old 06-27-2007, 04:46 PM #12 (permalink)  
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forgot to say fold preflop to the 3 bet, btw
this space intentionally left blank
 
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Fnord
Old 06-27-2007, 04:51 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
I 3-bet myself pre-flop.
I play it either way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 06-27-2007, 04:57 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
II don't like a pre-flop shove b/c it looks so bluffy after a cold-call.
After thinking for a bit, I chickened out on the flop.

Next orbit he plays a ~$200 pot pre-flop getting the worst of QJo vs A4s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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LimpinAintEZ
Old 06-27-2007, 06:10 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
II don't like a pre-flop shove b/c it looks so bluffy after a cold-call.
After thinking for a bit, I chickened out on the flop.

Next orbit he plays a ~$200 pot pre-flop getting the worst of QJo vs A4s.
then add him to the buddies list and follow him
this space intentionally left blank
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 06-27-2007, 06:13 PM #16 (permalink)  
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IowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enoughIowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enough
 shoving the flop seems pretty bad given your reads.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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