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Fnord
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07-13-2008, 02:17 PM
Post subject: Lets give the table rock lots ot action on a bad turn card!
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Opponent is 14/7 over 80 hands. Has yet to 3bet or really show much of any life. He got his stack going set over set for 150bb (he raised the flop there.)
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($207.50)
UTG+1 ($72.00)
Hero ($304.00)
BTN ($569.00)
SB ($118.00)
BB ($450.75)
Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO  
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4
Flop:    ($19, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14, BB folds
Turn:  ($47, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN raises to $70, Hero calls $40
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Ok, so no replies so far. I guess I should post more routine hands.
My thoughts: No flop raise on a board like this makes me kinda discount a set. I have the :Kd: in hand and the :Ad: is on the flop. That eliminates a lot of flush hands he could have. AT? JTd? Bluff? kinda small raise size for a bruff. How often is a king an out here? How often does he check the river behind with a worse hand?
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I think this is a fairly trivial turn fold. He rarely raises worse and you won't get paid off on the river 7 outer
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reprisal
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 106
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I dunno, his raise is so small you arent that far off the price you need to chase your FD w/o any implied odds. The implied odds on catching your K, from AK & AQ should be > then the times you get owned by AA. If he is ever bluffing, has worse or has QdQx or something(and he'll check behind OR jam when we do hit) then it seems like its a close spot.
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xptboy
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Straight
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Brussels
Posts: 187
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I like the turn bet, and implied odds are good enough to call his minraise, if you hit then even if he doesn't hand u his chips he'll still be emotionally affected by it
I'd put him on a flush btw so I woudl'nt say a K is an out, he almost never has AA, and and AK/AT is a good possibility
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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Almost min-raising with anything other than a made flush would be really bad here. Board seems way to wet to take chances. I call though, fair odds and he could be bluffing a scare card. For instance if I had JQ I might well pretend I was chasing the FD instead of the SD.
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Just playing to improve.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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I'm going to agree with deanglow here.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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i wud so say your crushed on turn, a 14/7 has next to no imagination for poker lines. he thinks he has you and now he raised. id say he will bet rivers alot
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Why bet the turn to begin with?
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Marshall28
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,198
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if hes dumb enough to make this tiny raise on the turn so deep, im calling without a doubt.
argument is that hes dumb enough to pay u off when u hit,and hes also dumb enough to raise here w/ a worse hand that just plain doesnt make any sense.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Why bet the turn to begin with?
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How many flush draws are in his range?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Why bet the turn to begin with?
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How many flush draws are in his range? |
if you think there are few flush draws in his range then this implies he would rarely have a straight draw which your turn bet seems to want to charge. he also probably won't call with a worse made hand if he is so nitty. why did you bet 30? If I bet this turn I would definitely gaybet it for like 16$ (1/3 pot), since I don't think this dude's gonna make a creative play on me. He is able to call this bet with worse made hands. He also might do something dumb like minraise this bet if he has the goods which gives u much better odds to see the river than when he raises your 30$ bet.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Even if flush draws constitute a small part of his range on the flop, the idea is that betting the turn is a huge mistake against his flushes but only marginally correct against the rest of his range, so don't bet, at least not $30.
Think about it, if he has a hand like Q-J, you're just inducing a fold when he's completely smoked anyways, so you gain next to nothing. Betting with K-K without the K of diamonds might actually be more correct than betting with Kd-Kx.
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