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KQs @$50

  
 
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 04-14-2007, 06:36 AM     Post subject: KQs @$50 #1 (permalink)  
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Against this villain I have ~800 hands on him but I haven't played 6-max in a couple months so he likely doesn't remember me. If he does it's cuz I'm a nit. He is around 39.x/13.x/2.7 with the turn being the most aggressive street for him at around 4.5.

Stars $50, 6 handed, effective stack is $57.

I raise UTG w/KQhh to $2, he calls in the cutoff, we take the flop HU

Flop is QJ3 rainbow
I bet $3.50, he calls

Turn is a 7 giving me a flush draw
I bet $6, he raises to $15, I call $9 more

River is meaningless
I check, he puts me AI for 36.50

Thoughts on the entire hand? Push turn? Call river given how we got here?
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vegascoop
Old 04-14-2007, 07:26 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Given what we know, I don't know how we get away. Shoving the turn doesn't fold any better hands so I like the turn call. He's drawing thin if behind.

I think you have to call river.
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bigspenda73
Old 04-14-2007, 07:31 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 You really have to ask yourself what he could possibly be overplaying
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benny999
Old 04-14-2007, 08:52 AM #4 (permalink)  
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it may be weak but i'd prob check-call the turn, or maybe bet but stronger.
I like that more than leading kinda weak into a lag like that especially if he see's you as nitty.

i think the most likely case is you're behind on the turn, but could also see this being a bluff.
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givememyleg
Old 04-14-2007, 08:56 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I think the river is so tough because of how you played the turn.

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bigspenda73
Old 04-14-2007, 09:34 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I think the river is so tough because of how you played the turn.
But what else can hero do on the turn?
c/c?
b/3bet AI?

Personally I fold the river, if we got bluffed then so be it.

Hate to give a spewtard too much credit but his line looks like 33. In all honesty, you look like you have a made hand and his shove shouldn't be a bluff. Think about it, what hand can you raise UTG, bet the flop and bet/call the turn with that is a drawing hand. I think villain has to believe you have a made hand.
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givememyleg
Old 04-14-2007, 11:24 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I think the river is so tough because of how you played the turn.
But what else can hero do on the turn?
c/c?
b/3bet AI?
I think c/c or bet are both okay here, really. I think I would c/c a decent sized bet here more often than lead, but that is because I check the turn with air a lot if my cbet is called. It really depends on how you usually play and is villain is even thinking. However, heros 1/2 pot turn bet looks soooo weak that if villain is semi-decent at all he could be pouncing all over it. I think it should be assumed that he is at least okay with 800+ hands on him (regardless if it is 50nl). That's why I think the river is tougher than it should be because of the weakness that has been shown.

I probably still fold here more often than not, but a call should at least be considered.

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Galapogos
Old 04-14-2007, 12:44 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I c/c the turn vs this player. As played I fold the river without even thinking too much about it.


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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 04-14-2007, 05:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I got a few details in the hand wrong but it's still pretty much the same...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($52.50)
Button ($52.05)
SB ($32.20)
BB ($64.60)
Hero ($55.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, K.
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 6, Q, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP raises to $15, Hero calls $9.

River: ($40.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $32.5 (All-In), Hero

I do have follow up questions to the replies though...
Why check the turn?
When you check/call the turn, do you block bet river or c/c?
The pot after rake is just over $10, how much is an amount you would bet that a strong player wouldn't raise? $8.00?
Given that the heart on the flop is the 6h and not one of the 2 broadways do you think this increases heavily the amount of semibluffing hands that he has. Enough so to call the river? Enough to push the turn?
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pgil
Old 04-14-2007, 05:42 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I would probably put it in on the turn half the time and call/check-call the river the other half, but that may not be the best idea. You said in your OP that the turn was his most aggressive street, so he could be making a play here.

Have you seen him play any hands, or has PT done all of the observing for you? Has he used a similar line before, and if so what did he have?

How does he play sets/2pr. QJ is a definite possibility here. People love QJ and play it far too often.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 04-14-2007, 05:45 PM #11 (permalink)  
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As I said in OP it's been a couple months since I have played 6-max and those hands are from then and I don't have any notes on him or even remember his name. Given how many hands I have on him I would expect to have notes on him since I am an avid note taker but I must not have seen very much out of him when we did play a couple months ago.
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vegascoop
Old 04-14-2007, 06:22 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I still think I'm probably not folding but a couple of more things to complete the read. What's his aggression frequency on the turn and cold call percentage pre?

This guy smells like a floater against unknown tag's. cold call in position, call the flop c-bet, push tag off hand on the turn. If cold call percentage and aggression frequency on turn don't look out of whack, this might not be true, but I'd guess they're both higher than normal given his other stats.
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vegascoop
Old 04-14-2007, 06:31 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher
I got a few details in the hand wrong but it's still pretty much the same...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($52.50)
Button ($52.05)
SB ($32.20)
BB ($64.60)
Hero ($55.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, K.
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 6, Q, J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP raises to $15, Hero calls $9.

River: ($40.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $32.5 (All-In), Hero

I do have follow up questions to the replies though...
Why check the turn?
When you check/call the turn, do you block bet river or c/c?
The pot after rake is just over $10, how much is an amount you would bet that a strong player wouldn't raise? $8.00?
Given that the heart on the flop is the 6h and not one of the 2 broadways do you think this increases heavily the amount of semibluffing hands that he has. Enough so to call the river? Enough to push the turn?
I was thinking about this river call scenario and I'd like some help with it.

I'm going to try and figure it out later. While I think the call is probably +EV in my games, I don't think c/c on river is optimum, or at least has to be balanced with shoving the turn sometimes and blocking the river sometimes. We obviously can't c/c every time being oop against a good villain who would balance checking behind and shoving properly.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 04-14-2007, 07:00 PM #14 (permalink)  
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lol, I went back to the hand to get those things for you vegas, but something really wierd happened. PT said after 89 hands he's playing 12.36/8.99. That's just for this month so he must have tightened up a bit because his overall stats are still 40/15. So my read might be a little off but postflop he is still aggro and the turn is still his most aggressive street. After those 89 hands his turn agg is 3.0 and his WTSD is 7%. His c/c% is just over 1% after all his 800 hands.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 04-14-2007, 08:30 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 i play same but fold river.
people seem to severely underrate the WTSD% stat because its constantly omitted, this info could really help.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 04-14-2007, 08:47 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
i play same but fold river.
Well I folded the river cuz I'm a nit, but the more I think about this hand the more I think I should've called.
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