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KK vs. flop push

  
 
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r8ed
Old 08-16-2006, 05:23 AM     Post subject: KK vs. flop push #1 (permalink)  
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Handn't paid much attention to Villain but he was seeing 45% of the flops without raising much at all. I've been tight and usually getting respect. Too many people called and then Villain leads and 3bets me. It's tough to lay down Kings with unders on the board but this seems like a good spot. Standard or weak?

***** Hand History for Game 4958833690 *****
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Wed Aug 16 00:39:28 EDT 2006
Table Lady Ester (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: elmalvado ( $124.30)
Seat 2: Goteburgare ( $35)
Seat 3: Hero ( $128.55)
Seat 4: spooter1312 ( $25.25)
Seat 5: wolfe2114 ( $220.32)
Seat 6: bcchamp15 ( $24.05)
bcchamp15 posts small blind (0.50)
elmalvado posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks, Kh ]
Goteburgare folds.
wolfe2114: lol
Hero raises (4) to 4
spooter1312 calls (4)
wolfe2114 calls (4)
bcchamp15 folds.
elmalvado calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ts, 5d, 9d ]
elmalvado bets (10)
Hero raises (20) to 20
spooter1312 folds.
wolfe2114: hm?
wolfe2114 folds.
elmalvado raises (110.30) to 120.30
Hero folds
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Renton
Old 08-16-2006, 05:29 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 i call
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vegascoop
Old 08-16-2006, 06:58 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I think I would fold this, although its close with all of the possible draws. I play at NL50 so not sure what villains range might be for making this play. Renton, would you elaborate on your thought process?

I'm pretty sure I fold too much now as an over-correction to the worse problem of calling too much. Still looking for the sweet spot
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Renton
Old 08-16-2006, 07:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 i think this player pushes a lot of hands that we beat.
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mcatdog
Old 08-16-2006, 07:34 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I think you're ahead a lot here, and I also don't like the min-raise if you plan to fold to an all-in. It looks too much like a let's-see-where-I'm-at raise and I think you're going to get 3-bet a lot even when you have the best hand.
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Miffed22001
Old 08-16-2006, 12:33 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 call.
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r8ed
Old 08-16-2006, 03:09 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I usually don't mind being raised here but him leading and then pushing seems like a set. Flush or str8 draws usually check initially here. Since I didn't have a read, I didn't feel like stacking off with an overpair with 2 outs on a flop that 3 other people saw.

If you were villain and had a set, what line would you take?
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andy-akb
Old 08-16-2006, 03:26 PM #8 (permalink)  
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That minraise is way to weak, why are you making it? You priced the original raiser in even if he has a FD, if 1 other person calls after you anybody after them can easily tag along with most hands and play them profitably.

Renton and miffed, why call? Care to explain any of your reasoning beyond "we are ahead of his range?" What range do you put an unknown on here?

I personally dont mind this fold that much without a better read than him seeing a lot of flops. If we trust our read that he is passive, then is he really going to push with AT? We are ahead of JJ and QQ which are very likely becuase even passive players tend to 3bet KK and AA preflop, but he could easily be getting tricky with aces so thats not out of his range completely. A set is also very possible and we are way behind that, a hand like T9 is also in his range. We beat draws and one pair hands lower than Ks, but do we really think our opponent is playing any of those except for QQ and JJ this aggressively? I honestly dont know so I can see it either way, but I do know we arent helping anything with the small flop raise.

As to the OPs question about playing a set here. If I hit a set out of the blinds in a raised pot Im going to lead into the PFRer hoping he has something like AA or KK and try to get it all in, much like he did although Im not sure Id make such a big push over your small raise.
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Rondavu
Old 08-16-2006, 03:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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This is a call, and it's not very close.

Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Renton and miffed, why call? Care to explain any of your reasoning beyond "we are ahead of his range?" What range do you put an unknown on here?
It's not a player specific range as much. It's a wide range based on all the meta reasons this person would push in this spot. These include hero min raising the flop, looking like he's buying a card with a draw, and villain pushes with air or a pair. It also includes villain viewing the min-raise as weak when he has his own draw. Now he sees fold equity and outs.

Basically every reason villain would push that you're ahead of is paying you, and you don't want to fold overpairs on safe boards if you can help it.

Just my take.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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r8ed
Old 08-16-2006, 04:25 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I don't have a high win rate in these situations without a read. If I factor in the below with the times they have 9T or a set is calling still +EV?

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5c Td 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kh 532 53.74 458 46.26 0 0.00 0.537
Ad 2d 458 46.26 532 53.74 0 0.00 0.463
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aislephive
Old 08-16-2006, 09:08 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Similar hand I played yesterday.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($159.75)
Button ($301.09)
Hero ($198)
BB ($197)
UTG ($200)
MP ($292.53)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG raises to $8, 2 folds, Button calls $8, Hero (poster) calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($26) 9, 2, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $18, UTG raises to $40, Button folds, Hero calls $172 (All-In), UTG folds.

Final Pot: $256

Note that most people don't play big hands as hard as I do, and I would play any combo draw the same way (A2d, T8d, 78d, etc). I think I'm calling in the original hand OP posted since most people won't play a big hand that fast.
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Robert
Old 08-16-2006, 11:53 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Raise more on the flop. To be honest, I'm split between calling and folding to his shove.
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Renton
Old 08-16-2006, 11:57 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 If you are calling in this spot you are maximizing winrate and variance

if you are folding you are curtailing your winrate for less variance.
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r8ed
Old 08-17-2006, 02:11 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
If you are calling in this spot you are maximizing winrate and variance

if you are folding you are curtailing your winrate for less variance.
Well put Renton. If I was on a winning streak I call this all day but I've been running about even or less for a while and I probably overthought this one.
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johnny_fish
Old 08-17-2006, 02:24 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
If you are calling in this spot you are maximizing winrate and variance

if you are folding you are curtailing your winrate for less variance.
How often do you think it's a set/Tx/AA? Let's say were behind 30% of the time (15% equity), and 70% ahead (60%). That means 47% equity.. It seems a pretty close call.
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Renton
Old 08-17-2006, 02:30 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 our equity is probably about 55-65 percent. Overlay makes this call fairly clear.
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Silly String
Old 08-17-2006, 02:58 AM #17 (permalink)  
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I don't think a set plays like this, and villain probably slow plays, or check raises 2 pair here. I say fish with AT or str8/flush draw and I call. I play 50NL though and I feel this is a call vs. my average opponent as described. Most of my opponents 45% to flop with no raise are not fast playing monsters.
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andy-akb
Old 08-17-2006, 03:26 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
our equity is probably about 55-65 percent. Overlay makes this call fairly clear.
Im not disagreeing with you here, but Im curious as to where you came up with this number.
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Rockymv
Old 08-17-2006, 07:04 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Loose passives don't usually play sets and 2 pair like this. I bet this is usually JJ-AA, AT, maybe straight draw.
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Renton
Old 08-17-2006, 07:05 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
our equity is probably about 55-65 percent. Overlay makes this call fairly clear.
Im not disagreeing with you here, but Im curious as to where you came up with this number.
outta my ass
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Rockymv
Old 08-17-2006, 07:09 AM #21 (permalink)  
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even if 2 pair and sets are equally as likely as overpairs and AT, it's an easy call:

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.5643 % 54.65% 00.92% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 44.4357 % 43.52% 00.92% { JJ+, 99, 66-55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
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Renton
Old 08-17-2006, 07:17 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockymv
even if 2 pair and sets are equally as likely as overpairs and AT, it's an easy call:

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.5643 % 54.65% 00.92% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 44.4357 % 43.52% 00.92% { JJ+, 99, 66-55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
damn i am good
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Genitruc
Old 08-17-2006, 02:32 PM #23 (permalink)  
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 damn renton u r good
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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mcatdog
Old 08-17-2006, 02:49 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Is there a reason you put 66 in his range of hands?
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veos
Old 08-17-2006, 03:00 PM #25 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockymv
even if 2 pair and sets are equally as likely as overpairs and AT, it's an easy call:

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.5643 % 54.65% 00.92% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 44.4357 % 43.52% 00.92% { JJ+, 99, 66-55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
What tool do you use to calculate the odds?
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Muzzard
Old 08-17-2006, 04:22 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Hey! this is my first post... rip it to shreads if you want, I don't profess to be an amazing player, but here's what i think. It's on my blog too pokermuzz.blogspot

This is a pretty tricky spot with 4 callers preflop, small pairs suited aces and pretty much any two face cards a possibility. I wouldnt put any of these guys on anything above J/J as the correct play should be to reraise here... unless they are slow playing. An alternative option here would be to limp UTG+1 and HOPE someone raises although this is even more dangerous unless you can lay down your KK easily post flop if a raise does not come.

Post Flop Hero is too weak to get much information 2xraise is not enough. He should bang in at least 3 or 4x raise. Trips or aces are the only thing that has you beat here - with the option of draws for diamonds and straights... but I doubt someone would go so aggressive with a draw here.

Possible hands
a) A10
b) 9/10suited
c) JQ
d) any Trips
e) Adxd
f) Overpair

I think the only hand you can put him on with the 6 x re-raise is the overpair, so I'd have to call and cross my fingers it isnt a slow played AA or he doesnt catch lucky trips. (Prety sneaky if he has trips already and puts Hero on over pair!)
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andy-akb
Old 08-17-2006, 04:52 PM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockymv
even if 2 pair and sets are equally as likely as overpairs and AT, it's an easy call:

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.5643 % 54.65% 00.92% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 44.4357 % 43.52% 00.92% { JJ+, 99, 66-55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
Taking out 66, which Im not really sure why its in there, it is closer to what Johnny said and if you weight it as he did which makes sense then he seems to be spot on. Not saying its a good or bad call based on the info we have here, but I think its closer than most people are saying and depends on a lot of in game factors.

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.3560 % 50.32% 01.04% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 48.6440 % 47.61% 01.04% { JJ+, 99, 55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
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Rockymv
Old 08-17-2006, 06:27 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockymv
even if 2 pair and sets are equally as likely as overpairs and AT, it's an easy call:

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.5643 % 54.65% 00.92% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 44.4357 % 43.52% 00.92% { JJ+, 99, 66-55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
Taking out 66, which Im not really sure why its in there, it is closer to what Johnny said and if you weight it as he did which makes sense then he seems to be spot on. Not saying its a good or bad call based on the info we have here, but I think its closer than most people are saying and depends on a lot of in game factors.

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.3560 % 50.32% 01.04% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 48.6440 % 47.61% 01.04% { JJ+, 99, 55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }
oops...that's what i meant to do. still an easy call with all the money already in the pot tho.
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r8ed
Old 08-17-2006, 06:59 PM #29 (permalink)  
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Not that it's going to change anyone's mind but for some reason TT was excluded.
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andy-akb
Old 08-17-2006, 07:32 PM #30 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
Not that it's going to change anyone's mind but for some reason TT was excluded.
Shit, just noticed that too and plugged it in and it gives the advantage [without weighing his range at all] to your opponent.

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.7951 % 47.82% 00.97% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 51.2049 % 50.23% 00.97% { 99+, 55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }

With the money already in its a call, weighing it I dont think would change this but seeing how close this is reads could sway this one way or another and I really dont think its as clear cut as everybody is saying and these numbers really show that.
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Robert
Old 08-18-2006, 01:45 AM #31 (permalink)  
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Pokermuzz, welcome to the boards
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vegascoop
Old 08-18-2006, 05:38 AM #32 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
Not that it's going to change anyone's mind but for some reason TT was excluded.
Shit, just noticed that too and plugged it in and it gives the advantage [without weighing his range at all] to your opponent.

Board: Ts 5d 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.7951 % 47.82% 00.97% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 51.2049 % 50.23% 00.97% { 99+, 55, ATs, T9s, ATo, T9o }

With the money already in its a call, weighing it I dont think would change this but seeing how close this is reads could sway this one way or another and I really dont think its as clear cut as everybody is saying and these numbers really show that.
With cards to come, I think its closer against the hands we're ahead of than the hands that beat us. That may not be true if people play TP/OP this way at this level. I'm thinking sets and FD are more likely given action.

I agree with the statement that folding is slightly lower EV but lower variance.
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