Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

You need 25% equity to call on the river, but need >25% equity to make shoving +EV.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Surely we need >50% equity to make a shove better than a call.

edit: In fact we dont even need >50% equity against his river range. we need >50% equity against his shove calling range.

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

We are getting 3:1 pot odds on this river bet. So, if we need approximately 25% equity to call and villain is never folding to a river shove, then shoving becomes +EV if we have >25% equity.

Originally Posted by Pelion

I dont understand that logic. If we have 25% equity then that means we expect to be behind but are calling for pot odds. In order for a shove to be better than calling there need to be more hands that call us and lose, than call us and win.

In this hand his range is bla and we have 25% equity. We win one time for every 3 times we lose. Getting 3:1 from the pot makes a call fine 0EV.

But we have 3 more behind to shove. When we shove we still expect to win 25% since he never folds. Also our effective pot odds 6:4 since we now win 6 every time were ahead and lose 4 every time were behind.

So the 3 times we lose well lose 4 for a total of -12. The one time we win well win 6 for +6. Total EV in -6 which sucks.

All weve done is decided we are probably losing, decided we have good pot odds, and then decided to make our pot odds worse for some reason.

Originally Posted by Lukie

river decision.

step 1.

put opponent on a (weighted) range.

step 2.

Figure out equity against said range. If we have 25%+ equity, the decision is between calling and raising. If we have 25% or less equity, the decision is between folding and raising. For all intents and purposes, let's just say raising = shoving. Let's also ignore metagame and variance considerations.

In any case, figure out the EV of a shove. Quick, possibly flawed maths:

hero has 144 of 726 eff stack in pre-river. so once villain bets, we're looking at a 436 pot with 582 behind. if we shove and villain folds, we win 436. If we shove and get called by better, we lose 582. If we shove and get called by worse, we win 874 (current pot + rest of opponent's stack). So do your best to figure out the %'s of each based off what you perceive his weighted range to be, and voila! we have the EV of a shove. it might look something like .5(436) + .45(-582) + .05(874), which just so happens to be approximately 0. Whatever this number is, compare it to the EV of folding (0), and calling ((equity*580)-144). Pick the best option. If options run very close together, the general hierarchy is raising > calling > folding, for metagame purposes.

The alternative is to base your play on other people's one-liners which are based on what their pre-conceived notions of what's standard are in particular spots.

Originally Posted by gabe

raise the flop not the river

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Why would you not raise the flop? Yeah as u said 30/9 leading into you but your not going to find a fold anywhere so might as well get good value.