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JJ vs TAG

  
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-20-2007, 02:42 AM     Post subject: JJ vs TAG #1 (permalink)  
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villain is a solid TAG, 21/15/3

Seat 1: Seat1 ($164.03 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: Seat3 ($38.97 in chips)
Seat 5: Seat5 ($149.30 in chips)
Seat 6: Seat6 ($94.10 in chips)
Seat 8: VILLAIN ($102.60 in chips)
Seat 10: HERO ($191.43 in chips)
Seat3: Post SB $0.50
Seat5: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [ ]
Seat6: Fold
VILLAIN: Raise $3.50
HERO: Raise $12.00
Seat1: Call $12.00
Seat3: Fold
Seat5: Fold
VILLAIN: Call $8.50
*** FLOP *** [ ]
VILLAIN: Check
HERO: Bet $28.00
Seat1: Fold
VILLAIN: Allin $90.60
HERO: ...
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dsaxton
Old 07-20-2007, 03:21 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Call.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 07-20-2007, 04:14 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 1). You are getting around 3:1
2). You are even money against a flush draw with 1 overcard, slighly behind a FD with 2 overcards
3). You are in really bad shape against a set, as well as K-K/A-A.

I believe this is a pretty accurate range for villain.

I am only going to give villain 1 combo each of K-K/A-A.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.015 secs 858,000 games/sec

Board: 9h 7h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.289% 84.29% 00.00% 10848 0.00 { AcAs, KcKs, 99, 77, 33, AhKh, AhQh }
Hand 1: 15.711% 15.71% 00.00% 2022 0.00 { JcJd }


And one without K-K/A-A.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10,890 games 0.005 secs 2,178,000 games/sec

Board: 9h 7h 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.251% 83.25% 00.00% 9066 0.00 { 99, 77, 33, AhKh, AhQh }
Hand 1: 16.749% 16.75% 00.00% 1824 0.00 { JcJd }


---

Even if you think he will always 4bet K-K+, it does little to change Hero's equity against villain. I would fold, even with the possibility villain is completely bluffing. If he loves to get fancy in these spots then it is much closer but without a specific read i would fold this.
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dsaxton
Old 07-20-2007, 04:29 AM #4 (permalink)  
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ZeroSkill, those are absurdly narrow ranges for how a typical tagg plays these days.
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sauce123
Old 07-20-2007, 04:42 AM #5 (permalink)  
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bet/fold $20
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Harry
Old 07-20-2007, 07:26 AM #6 (permalink)  
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He almost never has AA or KK. Sets and big draws are in his range. QQ as well. It's probably a fold. I don't think you need to c-bet as large.
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Fnord
Old 07-20-2007, 04:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
He almost never has AA or KK.
I disagree.

It's still a call though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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snowbird4life
Old 07-20-2007, 04:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I call. I think your going to see something along the lines of AKh or AQh even Ax of hearts more often then your going to see a set or aa/kk here.
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noble007
Old 07-20-2007, 05:22 PM #9 (permalink)  
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QQ would be closer imo.
Against a full stack I think I fold, a shorty who had up to 65bb at start I call.
I also look at aggression factor post flop if its less than 3 I would definately fold more than 4 I might lean towards calling - don't know if thats valid though, my thinking when I'm playing is that they're pushing draws/bluffs more often.
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bigspenda73
Old 07-20-2007, 05:27 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
He almost never has AA or KK.
I disagree.

It's still a call though.
I think you have to be including some strange hands for this to be a call. We're pretty much smoked by a standard TAGG's range here.

IMO it's not a call until we have KK. QQ is really close
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-20-2007, 05:37 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Fnord, idk what games ur playing this is a fold.
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Fnord
Old 07-20-2007, 06:10 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Thinking about this hand some more, I think the re-raise pre-flop was a pretty big mistake.

167,310 games 0.331 secs 505,468 games/sec

Board: 7h 9h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.003% 65.70% 00.30% 109922 508.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 33.997% 33.69% 00.30% 56372 508.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo+ }
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bigspenda73
Old 07-20-2007, 06:21 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 LOL, at least make the suited hands for hearts only.
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Fnord
Old 07-20-2007, 06:27 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
LOL, at least make the suited hands for hearts only.
Meh, I think the problem is that we figure to often have a lukewarm hand post-flop and even against a fairly aggro UTG range, we're only a 2:1 favorite.

A better 3-bet range against a UTG opener would be something like KK+/AK with the occasional suited connector or 22-55 thrown in.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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bigspenda73
Old 07-20-2007, 06:33 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 He's in UTG+1.You cannot include all of his hands in his range after the action on the flop.

Sure, once the flop comes that is what we are against his PF range but once we are raised his range significantly shrinks to FD's, sets and overpairs.

Explain why you wouldn't want to 3bet JJ here, is it b/c we are absolutely smoked by his calling range? I think that's why we 3bet here, to define his range so we make playing the flop easier on ourselves.
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Silly String
Old 07-20-2007, 09:00 PM #16 (permalink)  
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So do we b/f a smaller amount(exploitable) or do we check behind(so weak)?
I say call and if he smooth called our 3bet with all that money in the pot, so be it. I think with 3 in the pot AA/KK 4bets here a lot. What is our image again and does TAG know us?
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-20-2007, 09:52 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silly String
So do we b/f a smaller amount(exploitable) or do we check behind(so weak)?
I say call and if he smooth called our 3bet with all that money in the pot, so be it. I think with 3 in the pot AA/KK 4bets here a lot. What is our image again and does TAG know us?
villain definitely is paying attention. our image has been pretty nitty so far at the table.
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Miffed22001
Old 07-21-2007, 01:36 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 im calling here, the ranges above are too tight. Id expect to see TT as much as QQ here, but id like to know more about opp if this is an insta-call. Without much info id hmmm and then call anyways.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-21-2007, 01:43 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
im calling here, the ranges above are too tight. Id expect to see TT as much as QQ here, but id like to know more about opp if this is an insta-call. Without much info id hmmm and then call anyways.
villain was me. are you still calling?
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Fnord
Old 07-21-2007, 02:31 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
villain was me. are you still calling?
If you don't know it's me, it's an easy fold. I know your post-flop game well enough.

If you know it's me, I flip a coin.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-21-2007, 02:59 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
villain was me. are you still calling?
If you don't know it's me, it's an easy fold. I know your post-flop game well enough.

If you know it's me, I flip a coin.
huh???
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-21-2007, 03:11 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
villain was me. are you still calling?
If I don't know it's you, it's an easy fold. I know your post-flop game well enough.

If you know it's me, I flip a coin.
huh???
k now makes sense right?
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-21-2007, 03:15 AM #23 (permalink)  
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so against an unknown TAG we are insta-calling.
against a known TAG we flip a coin because we don't really know?
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bigred
Old 07-21-2007, 03:58 AM #24 (permalink)  
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 I'm folding against unknown tag.
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Miffed22001
Old 07-21-2007, 07:37 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 its now less of a call knowing the tagg is not a total unknown, but still a call half the time.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 07-21-2007, 04:40 PM #26 (permalink)  
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lol...

i had 77. villain didn't tell me what, but i assume it had to be at least JJ, maybe TT. KK and AA are probably stacking off, which leaves JJ and QQ as the borderline hands which would have a sick decision to make.

i also discussed with spenda on my play, and my check/bomb on the flop is probably the worst way to get value. villain (the real one)'s range is actually very heavily skewed towards pairs after the 3bet preflop + big cbet....which means i'm not too worried about the flush draw. only AcKc would play the same.

so....call the flop. check/bomb the turn. if i miss, open-push the river. seems like the most +EV play here.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-21-2007, 05:07 PM #27 (permalink)  
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 You're somewhat right, your play isn't good if you know he's folding stuff like TT-JJ(QQ), but the truth is i expect my opponents to call here with those hands and u really cant risk scare cards coming. So unless you're pretty sure he's folding, I'd shove here.
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Harry
Old 07-21-2007, 06:55 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Yea, I fold JJ here, but the average player doesn't. A c/r is fine on a board like this.
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gabe
Old 07-21-2007, 07:07 PM #29 (permalink)  
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to those saying call, are we calling with TT? a9 ? t9 ?
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bigspenda73
Old 07-21-2007, 07:16 PM #30 (permalink)  
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 I think I eventually said that a weak lead on the flop would have been my decision. We just cannot expect him to cbet AK into 2 other players here.

I pretty much weak lead all of my sets anyways but they typically are in raised pots and not 3bet pots so it plays a little differently here.

Check/calling does suck for us b/c of the amount of scare cards out there if villain is holding JJ/TT. Yea, I'm either weak leading/3betAI or c/r'ing AI. I take back what I said about the c/r being bad, only b/c once JJ/TT get in his range we should get the money in soon.
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