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Numbr2intheWorld
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07-08-2007, 06:06 PM
Post subject: JJ reraised pot vs semi unknown
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Villain is like 13/7 over 30 hands. Obviously not big enough of a sample.
The turn was a quick c/r.
I'm not sure why anyone would c/c flop and c/r the turn on this board with a strong hand. Obviously, this player isn't me and might see reason for it. Then again, there are really no hands except strong hands which would ever c/r this turn.
i'm ranting... what do you think, call this push or not?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($597.60)
UTG ($400)
MP ($435)
Button ($395)
SB ($418.60)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , J .
3 folds, SB raises to $12, Hero raises to $40, SB calls $28.
Flop: ($80) 2, 8 , 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $58, SB calls $58.
Turn: ($196) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $135, SB raises to $320.6, Hero calls $185.60.
River: ($837.20) Q (2 players)
Final Pot: $837.20
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snowbird4life
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 246
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I think i fold here, especially against a 13/7, however with the money in the pot, your getting some pretty good odds at that point to just call. I think i may have checked behind on this turn. I would be a little wary after he calls my flop bet. While its only a 30 hand sample, i still wouldn't expect his ranges to fluctuate that much after a much larger sample.
I can see how you would think flush draw here, but against a 13/7 im probably giving him more credit than that. I also think this may be a poorly played aces or kings.
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Ace isTrumps
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 23
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To aggressive? You leave yourself no room to manoeuvre because you bet so much.
I see everyone puting in pot sized bets, whats the point? So easy to outplay you guys....
He doesn't raise on flop which seems strange as it's draw heavy. Seems to me he has a bigger pp or he has 33 and caught his set on turn which would explain a lot. Other possability is he has A-x hearts.
I'm banking on bigger pp or 33 though, so either way you are beat.
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snowbird4life
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 246
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sorry i lol'd @ Ace isTrumps
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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sets could play like this. i've played sets like this before on flushed board against aggro players. wait for a blank turn card where you equity goes up, and bomb them.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Bigger pairs felt the flop so I think you're fine.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ace isTrumps
To aggressive? You leave yourself no room to manoeuvre because you bet so much.
I see everyone puting in pot sized bets, whats the point? So easy to outplay you guys....
He doesn't raise on flop which seems strange as it's draw heavy. Seems to me he has a bigger pp or he has 33 and caught his set on turn which would explain a lot. Other possability is he has A-x hearts.
I'm banking on bigger pp or 33 though, so either way you are beat.
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LOL
I doubt he ever has 33 in this spot:
a) The villain does not hve the right implied odds to call the preflop bet to chase a set.
b) How can he just call the flop bet with 33?! Sure maybe if he was aggro eough he might raise 33 with the possibility you have AK, but this is an easy check fold with 33.
This looks like AA/KK.
As for criticism of psb...er 3/4 on the flop and 2/3 on the turn, do the math. Also, Massimo is one of the most respected posters on FTR I think he knows what he is doing on the whole!
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
a) The villain does not hve the right implied odds to call the preflop bet to chase a set.
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It's close but not horrible.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
a) The villain does not have the right implied odds to call the preflop bet to chase a set.
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It's close but not horrible. |
I thought the feeling was x15-20 to include the times Hero does not stack of with overpair/does not have overpair?
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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There's a school of thought that 8-10X is enough to sethunt.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz
a) The villain does not have the right implied odds to call the preflop bet to chase a set.
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It's close but not horrible. |
I thought the feeling was x15-20 to include the times Hero does not stack of with overpair/does not have overpair? |
It's a good idea but that doesn't mean people do it. I can't count how many times my large 3-bet preflop has been flat called by 22 or other garbage. A lot of players are not good with odds or disciplined enough to follow them.
Massimo, I think I fold. This looks a lot like badly played aces. Whatever the case is though, he's not running a bluff here by leaving so little folding equity on the turn.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Toadstool
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 442
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If opponant has AA I dont think its badly played - would massimo have stacked with JJ if opponant had played AA any differently? it's unlikely.
As for the hand I think its a fold - he likely either has you crushed with a set/overpair or he has decent equity with Ax of hearts.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
If opponant has AA I dont think its badly played - would massimo have stacked with JJ if opponant had played AA any differently? it's unlikely.
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Learn to spell opponent, thats like 3 times I've seen in the last 5 minutes.
As for the implied odds thing, OK I know that quite a few players aren't following the 'rule' or even know about implied odds. I try to follow it as often as possible. At these stakes though , don't most players abide by it?
I think only 8-10x isn't really realistic, against a good OPPONENT(lol) he may not felt his overpair and he may not even have an overpair at all -AK/AQ and other ranges depending on how light he three bets.
The 8-10 rule assumes that the 3-bet means
a) He has a big pair
b) Will stack off if it is an overpair
Those are fairly rigid assumptions and a larger 15-20x rule factors in those variables.
So lets make a few assumptions of the hand in question. Massimo, though I've not played with him, has a fairly wide 3-bet range and can fold overpairs to heat. Given that I'm only getting about 10:1 makes it bad/not optimal, no?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think a lot of weirdly played hands could be in this guys range because of the fact that this is bvb.
The guy is so tight I feel like this is just such a shitty way to play it even though I couldn't offer a better suggestion.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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1. Can everyone stop saying he's so tight. I have 30 hands on him, he could easily be 24/20 or he could be 10/6, it's not really that great of information.
2. He could easily have 22, 55, or 88. Just because it is bad to call there with pp's for set value doesn't mean he's not doing it. Tons of people do.
3. I don't understand why a c/c on this flop is scary for me at all (someone made the point earlier). It's standard for all the hands that are beating me to raise there so i wasn't betting with fear.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
If opponant has AA I dont think its badly played - would massimo have stacked with JJ if opponant had played AA any differently? it's unlikely.
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This is being results oriented. He doesn't know Massimo has exactly JJ, which is quite unlikely with this being BvB. He also has to know Massimo is capable of being very aggressive, which he doesn't know after ~30 hands. And of course the obvious heart could kill his action or Massimo could check behind if he was actually drawing this time etc. etc.
In all, he simply doesn't know Massimo well enough yet after 30 hands to make a play like this.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Yes i agree that no matter what the opponent has here, he's played the hand badly.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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never fold here once you bet turn- and id bet turn
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
never fold here once you bet turn- and id bet turn
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Just because it's BvB vs a virual unknown?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Yes i agree that no matter what the opponent has here, he's played the hand badly.
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unless he has 64s, he's played that decent (although i wouldn't be a fan of the preflop call and i'd shove the flop).
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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galapagos- ur calling 185 to win 650 or somethin which basically means if hes semi bluffing or over valuing a worse hand even once in a great while we have an easy call
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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i think you have to felt because his range is so big because its bvb.
saying that a quick turn c/r (especially to that amount around 3x) usually means i know i have you beat but think you cant fold.
oops this is C-luvin not sauce.
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
i think you have to felt because his range is so big because its bvb.
saying that a quick turn c/r (especially to that amount around 3x) usually means i know i have you beat but think you cant fold.
oops this is C-luvin not sauce.
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Cy what it do?
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
galapagos- ur calling 185 to win 650 or somethin which basically means if hes semi bluffing or over valuing a worse hand even once in a great while we have an easy call
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Whoops, I was actually referring to you saying you definately bet this turn. But after thinking about it I think betting the turn is a must too.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,742
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1). If villan has Q-Q+, we lose less by checking behind. This is pretty unlikely holding simply because villan probably assumes Hero has a wide 3bet range and therefore Hero could have a drawing hand on the flop. Because of that villan would want to get the money in on the flop to prevent Hero from potentially drawing cheaply. Also Hero may then put villan on a FD/straight draw and look him up with a smaller overpair.
2). If villan has 8-x/5-x he might bet/fold turn. Or, if he didn't do that he might c/f turn some of the time. However, i think that villan is unlikely to be holding 8-x/5-x. One benefit to checking behind the turn when villan is holding a hand like this is he may want to look up a river bet. He is only 10% or so to improve his hand, unless he has some sort of draw as well.
3). If he has a draw with 1-2 overs he is about 20% to make a winning hand on the river. If he wanted to rep an overpair with his draw it would definitely make sense for him to c/r the flop. It is possible villan is c/r'ing the turn with a draw, since it isn't a terrible play.
4). He may have a hand like 6-7, but he is less than 20% to make his hand. Again, if he wanted to rep a strong made hand his best play would be to c/r the flop. Also this way he has some F.E.
5). He may have a set. It is unlikely but certainly not impossible. It also explains how he has played the hand. He might open shove the river if we check behind and if i were faced with an open shove with J-J on a blank river i think i might be able to pass up the hand against an unknown.
Since we didn't get c/r'ed on the flop, i don't feel it is as likely that villan has a drawing hand. I think this is more likely to be a WA/WB situation, and that villan is most likely to continue only when he is WA (Q-Q+, set)
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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Vi Zero Skill- Great post and i disagree completely. I think you analyzed all of his possible holdings quite well- however i dont think you put quite enough weight on two things-
1) the C/C, C/R line with a draw is very bad here because hero has such terrific odds to call
2) i think you are putting too tight a range on villain's made hands- some of his most likely holdings r combo draws, TPTK, a hand like 99, TT, or even an underpair which just doesnt believe Hero.
3) its relatively unlikely he has a set because a C/R shove on this flop is almost always the right play for a lot of reasons
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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In bvb however, a lot of opponents are being bluffy from the BB, which makes me think that he could definetely have a set here.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
3) its relatively unlikely he has a set because a C/R shove on this flop is almost always the right play for a lot of reasons
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I don't really think it's unlikely. As i said before, against an unknown, any hand where the villain takes this line is badly played. Which just makes me think he's not a good player, and definitely will not always make the "right" play. Then again, he does have TAGGy stats so it's probably safe to assume he probably would play it like a normal TAGG.
But he did show 88 for top set.
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