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ISF Theorem BAYBEE

  
 
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Ash256
Old 08-06-2007, 10:20 PM     Post subject: ISF Theorem BAYBEE #1 (permalink)  
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 iPoker 50NL, 100bb effective. Opponent seemed to lurk in the corner doing nothing much, as 9/9 over 34 hands proved. I threebet pre just cause I don't think 34 hands is a long time and I was in position. The flop looked like it had shat on most of his range. What do you think?

Dealer: Ratmir posts Small Blind $0.25
Dealer: R3sistance posts Big Blind $0.50

Dealer: Dealing cards
Dealer: Your cards :Th: :Td:
Dealer: Tefal folds
Dealer: dannylwd folds
Dealer: wackiepolackie folds
Dealer: mavorre folds
Dealer: Ratmir raises $1.75
Dealer: R3sistance raises $6
Dealer: Ratmir raises $9
Dealer: R3sistance calls $4.50


Dealer: Dealing Flop
:Ac:
Dealer: Ratmir checks
Dealer: R3sistance bets $15
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snowbird4life
Old 08-07-2007, 12:06 AM #2 (permalink)  
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He has AA and you just got stacked is what i think :P

But seriously, he has you beat, so you are hopeing he has something like KK/QQ and not AK/AA and you can push him off?

I wouldn't do this especially at this level. I think a lot of time even if they have kk/qq they are not giving it up and this is just too costly. I realize your using ISF's theorem lol, but i don't think this one will go over too well unless villain is a true nit capable of folding big hands. I would just check behind.

The 3 bet looks fine.. but once he put in that small4bet, proceed with cautionnn. Small 4bets at this level are almost always AA/KK imo
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 08-07-2007, 12:18 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 fold to the 4bet PF
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bode
Old 08-07-2007, 12:22 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill
fold to the 4bet PF
unless stacks are deep enough, right? Cant we play this for set odds w/ like $60ish stacks?
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EzDuzIt
Old 08-07-2007, 12:32 AM #5 (permalink)  
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how is this ISF theorem?
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griffey24
Old 08-07-2007, 02:05 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
how is this ISF theorem?
lol, yah I agree. I think this is just 'continuation bet' theorem

<edit: just noticed that villain had the last raise, so its not 'continuation bet theorem'.. hmm but I'm still not sure if this is ISF theorem>

either way.. I'd prob just check, I think he's calling with QQ/KK even.. so you'll have to double barrel here to take them off their hands.
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pokerroomace
Old 08-07-2007, 02:15 AM #7 (permalink)  
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don't fold to the pf 4bet. you're getting massive odds. he bet way too small. you played it fine. call the 4bet preflop and see a flop and reevaluate.

A hi flop is terrible so easy checkfold.

with 100bb stacks ($50). folding to the 4bet is ridiculous IMO
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Ash256
Old 08-07-2007, 05:07 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Here's what I meant by ISF theorem:

(Before we start, my hand is a bluff and I'm definitely not betting it for value or because I have anything more than 2 outs)

I think his 4-betting range is QQ-AA, AKs.

An Ace flop scares QQ and KK. He checked to me, which for me indicates his range is skewed towards the QQ, KK area. My range according to him is probably 99-QQ, AQo+. I make a bet after he checks, which indicates my range is skewed towards the Aces.

To cut a long story short, I think he has QQ/KK, and I think if I bet he thinks I have AQ, AK. The bluff needs to work something like 45% of the time to be breakeven, so I go for it.

Thoughts?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-07-2007, 05:13 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 this is actually okay but you have to make sure hes folding KK/QQ everytime.

And while this may not actually be good its the kind of thinking you have to do to get better.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-07-2007, 05:17 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I'm actually in love with this if this was 600 or 1000nl versus a very good player.
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snowbird4life
Old 08-07-2007, 05:20 AM #11 (permalink)  
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I don't think it will be nearly as successful as you may hope. If you have a read against this villain or you know that he is capable of folding kk/qq then go for it, but it seems your read is that villain is more of an unknown who just min 4bet you. I wouldn't try this against unknown villains who run 9/9 over 30 hands and min 4bet you imo.

Your going to have to double barrel at the least to get him off kk/qq if he min 4bet that pre (i think he has more along the lines of kk/aa). Theres a good chance you won't even get him off kk/qq plus if he does have the other half the range (AK/AA) your toast and are just handing him money.

Long story short: Your analytical thinking is correct, but i don't think he will fold nearly enough for this to be profitable + i think the likleyhood of him having you crushed is just too high. In this situation, i don't think this is working more than 45% of the time imo. While your thinking is correct, i think the major part of the hand is if he is capable of folding kk/qq, and if he is an unknown, given the action, why try to get fancy?

EDIT: Imo, Save these plays for higher limit, thinking regs, or at least thinking regs. Keep this stuff out of 50nl against random unknowns.
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bjsaust
Old 08-07-2007, 05:32 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Out of interest, why do you put him on a tighter range with a 4-bet PF than you think he'd put you on for calling a 4-bet PF?
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 08-07-2007, 08:25 AM #13 (permalink)  
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I've been doing stuff like this at 25nl and 50nl with a lot of success against the right opponents. I single out the nitty multi-table regulars and this move consistanly works.
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mcatdog
Old 08-07-2007, 09:34 AM #14 (permalink)  
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This is a blind battle. Why are we even assuming we're behind pre-flop. Folding to the 4-bet = LOL.
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Miffed22001
Old 08-07-2007, 10:47 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 im betting party fish dont fold kk/QQ here so im guessing i-poker fish wont either.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-07-2007, 02:59 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
This is a blind battle. Why are we even assuming we're behind pre-flop. Folding to the 4-bet = LOL.
It's 50nl! LOL. cmon dude 50nl guys arent FOS in blind battles.
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noble007
Old 08-07-2007, 03:41 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I like this as played.
I would bet with anything in this particular spot when checked to, maybe a bit less like 11/12 so that it has to work less often.
The board isnt very scary so he can afford to check call or check raise if it hit him.
But I still think its +ev.

(Also look for fold to flop bet of higher than 50% on pt stats then definitely bet in this spot if your image is ok.)
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-07-2007, 08:11 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 i personally like a smaller bet on the flop followed by a larger turn bet, i doubt he's folding the flop to one bet.
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mcatdog
Old 08-07-2007, 11:09 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
It's 50nl! LOL. cmon dude 50nl guys arent FOS in blind battles.
This is a ridiculous statement, there's plenty of raising and re-raising that goes on pre-flop at 50NL it's just that the regs don't really understand why they're doing it and they don't play well post-flop. When I was re-building my roll a few months ago at 50NL I folded JJ/QQ to 4-bets a few times against nitty regs and got shown junk a few times.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-07-2007, 11:52 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
It's 50nl! LOL. cmon dude 50nl guys arent FOS in blind battles.
This is a ridiculous statement, there's plenty of raising and re-raising that goes on pre-flop at 50NL it's just that the regs don't really understand why they're doing it and they don't play well post-flop. When I was re-building my roll a few months ago at 50NL I folded JJ/QQ to 4-bets a few times against nitty regs and got shown junk a few times.
okay you may be right i havent been there in awhile
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KoRnholio
Old 08-08-2007, 12:36 AM #21 (permalink)  
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 ISF Theorem owns me...

Villain cold called me with 64s in position on me earlier. Stats of 26/19/3.8 with 28 went to showdown/55 won $ at showdown. Hasn't played back at me on the flop except for one bluff about 45 minutes before.

Cryptologic - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $10.75
BB: $51.25
UTG: $57.55
Hero (CO): $69.05
BTN: $72.73

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q Q (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 6 5 7 (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BTN raises to $13.00, 2 folds
Uncalled bet of $8.50 returned to BTN

Pot Size: $15.25 ($0.75 Rake)
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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