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I usually don't post hands like this...

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-28-2007, 10:33 PM     Post subject: I usually don't post hands like this... #1 (permalink)  
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 I wasn't on my comp when i played this hand, so no HUD. I've played probably 50 hands with the villain so far and he seems pretty good and decently aggressive. I haven't seen him showdown a bluff or anything retarded.

Knowing that this guy is a TAGG and solid, i thought there was a good chance that he thought the Q was a good two barrel card for me. Also, he took about 10-15 seconds before shoving the river.

Obviously, this is a marginal situation. I doubt he shows up with AQ here, KQ possibly but not likely for a lot of reasons. I feel like my hand is really nothing but a bluff catcher. But, i also think that he's bluffing here about 15%-25% of the time (my best guess). So pretty much i answered my own question that the river is a fold, but i'd like to hear if your analysis is any different.

POKERSTARS GAME #117437225: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/08/28 - 17:14:30 (ET)
Table 'Tucana IV' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: PIMP1111 ($883.60 in chips)
Seat 2: hero($207.50 in chips)
hero: posts small blind $1
PIMP1111: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ad Qc]
hero: raises $4 to $6
PIMP1111: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Ts 7d 7c]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $8
PIMP1111: calls $8
*** TURN *** [Ts 7d 7c] [Qs]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $20
PIMP1111: raises $40 to $60
hero: calls $40
*** RIVER *** [Ts 7d 7c Qs] [3d]
PIMP1111: bets $809.60 and is all-in
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EzDuzIt
Old 08-28-2007, 10:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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looks like a 7 or a bluff to me. i kinda think hes bluffing here more than 15-25%. he could have easily picked up a draw on the turn and C/Red it then decided he was going to try to continue the bluff after he missed. I just think there are more hands that he could have that contain like a flush draw then hands with 7s. because hes not calling preflop with too many hands with a 7 in them is he? but i guess he isnt guranteed to play a draw like this either. overall i think you are getting good enough odds for this to be a profitable call but it does seem kinda close.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-30-2007, 01:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Turn is probably a fold and river yeah i have to fold here. The only hand we beat is 98s or J9s i would think. Considering how long he took i'd expect QT, or a really bad 7.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-30-2007, 04:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 or KJ
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-30-2007, 02:01 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 he had that? that's the least likely of hands he could have IMO
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-30-2007, 06:07 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 no he didn't have KJ, i'm just saying it's possible.

Does anyone think QJ is possible?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 08-30-2007, 08:43 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
no he didn't have KJ, i'm just saying it's possible.

Does anyone think QJ is possible?
if he thinks tp is the nuts.
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