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euphoricism
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10-27-2007, 08:41 PM
Post subject: I think I'm being stupid. Halp?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Since I am an abject failure at math... maybe someone can help me out here and point out where my thinking is stinkin'.
Folded to me in SB with AQo.
I 4x (16x left in my stack) BB calls. (8x pot)
Flop Kxx.
I cbet around 6x (10x left in my stack, 13x pot)
Villain shoves (29x in the pot and I have to call 10x, getting roughly 3:1). Assuming I'm behind to a one pair King, this leaves me with about 13% equity and 6 outs. 3:1 means I need 25% equity to break even, so this is a fold with half my stack in the pot?
Why does that sound wrong to me?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,548
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you're giving your opponent's range way too much credit
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jackvance
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10-27-2007, 09:46 PM
Post subject: Re: I think I'm being stupid. Halp?
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#3 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
(8x pot)
Flop Kxx.
I cbet around 6x (10x left in my stack, 13x pot)
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Well that's kinda a failure at math because 8+6=14, not 13.
Anyway, if you already put in 10BB when villain shoves, you have to call 10BB to win 40BB so 25% to call. Let's say he almost always has a king here, that means you're drawing to 4 outs (or 0 if he has AK).. that's about 15% so you can indeed fold it.
Let's try a different range.. 10% has you drawing dead (AK, set,..), 50% Kx giving you 15% equity, 20% some draw that you can beat with A high, giving you ~65% equity, 20% some pp below the Q, giving you 8 outs or 30%.
0.5*15%+0.2*65%+0.2*30%=26.5%.. a range like this and you can start to consider calling 
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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it's wrong because you're betting so you can price yourself to call.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
it's wrong because you're betting so you can price yourself to call.
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This is what I was thinking, but I've yet to be shown a worse hand yet.
Just a shitty spot. This is why I open shove in the SB so much ;p
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Your wrong because opp's range isn't a King 100%, if I had to guess I'd give it a 70%.
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