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I know what villain has, but I'm not sure how to bluff -50nl

  
 
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 11-19-2009, 06:39 PM     Post subject: I know what villain has, but I'm not sure how to bluff -50nl #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is a tagg reg with high cbet % and with stats and reads I'm sure he has JJ+, maybe with a diamond as well. If we assume thats his only range, what is the best betsizing/timing on turn n river that will lead him to fold?

He most likely sees me as a nittier tag than normal who does not get outta line.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -

saw flop

UTG ($52.25)
MP ($50.90)
Hero (CO) ($136.45)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($8.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
UTG bets $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) , , (2 players)
UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50 (Should I have bet bigger? Pot? Overbet so I can bluff bigger on the river?

River: ($26.75) (2 players)
UTG checks,
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Pelion
Old 11-19-2009, 06:43 PM #2 (permalink)  
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What makes you think he wants to fold? I really dont get your preflop or flop play either.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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d0zer
Old 11-19-2009, 06:58 PM #3 (permalink)  
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d0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the rough
You're going to lose a lot of monies trying to push people off of overpairs.
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 11-19-2009, 06:59 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I wouldn't be too happy getting it in against his UTG 4bet range, and I dont mind playing post flop with AKo. His going to cbet that board close to 100% of the time and with my tight nit imagine I think there are enough scare cards n money behind to bluff him out on later streets(plus maybe can spike A/K). Ultimately I think we would be putting villain in a tough guessing spot OOP against a tight player with only one pair. Leakage thinking?
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d0zer
Old 11-19-2009, 07:09 PM #5 (permalink)  
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d0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the rough
pre is fine, I think the float is fine, turn is ok too imo.

If you think he's capable of folding JJ+ here then just overshove river...you don't look like you have any bluffs in your range, but I wouldn't do it without a good read cuz I don't expect many players at 50NL to be laying down overpairs nearly enough to make that profitable.

Also there's a chance you're ahead of his KdQx.
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sniderstyle
Old 11-21-2009, 03:26 AM #6 (permalink)  

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sniderstyle
I don't mind flatting prelfop.

But postflop, with you having two overcards and the backdoor nutflush draw. I would raise his flopcbet. He's going to fold a very high percentage of the time.

When he doesn't fold, you take the initaitive in the hand. That's huge because now you control the pot.

Most of hte time, he's going to flat with 77 88 99 T. JJ he may 3bet and you can fold without feeling too badly.

But I liek to take initiative. I would then bet any diamond on the turn very hard. If I actually hit an A or a K, i would check behind for deception then value bet close to pot on the river.

I don't really liek the way you played it. As played, I would check behind the turn because I think our Ace high is actually ahead of a ton of his hands. He very well might have AQ AJ and thats fine. No need to bet here.

I would bet teh turn if you had total air though

And the river is just a check behind.
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Marshall28
Old 11-21-2009, 04:22 AM #7 (permalink)  
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If you're betting the turn you have to be betting every river. Otherwise you should just check back the turn and try to get there.

I'd bet bigger on turn and probably just shove the river.
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Marshall28
Old 11-21-2009, 04:22 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Or I'd just chk back the turn and try to get there on the river. Either line is fine.
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