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I have odds to draw but fold anyway

  
 
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benny999
Old 01-31-2007, 04:02 AM     Post subject: I have odds to draw but fold anyway #1 (permalink)  
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utg is standard tag, donk leader is a call station...UTG has a higher flush almost always right?

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1./$2.
4 players
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Stack sizes:
UTG: $196.80
Hero: $549.20
SB: $185.30
BB: $227.50

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 8 5
UTG raises to $7, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: K 9 J ($22, 3 players)
BB bets $20, UTG calls, Hero folds.

edit- here is the turn (I actually called on the flop):
Turn: 7 ($82, 3 players)
BB bets $82, UTG calls, [color=#cc0000]Hero???
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Genitruc
Old 01-31-2007, 04:08 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Somtimes, yes, but not "definitely".

it could be a hand like KQ/K10 or even QJ (although prob least likely) if he's seen the donk lead when weak.

U def avoided a potentially tough spot by folding though.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 01-31-2007, 04:23 AM #3 (permalink)  
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good point, didnt even really think about those hands when I posted.
I actually tanked on the flop then called. what would you do the turn (just edited the OP)? I think I should've folded...
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Genitruc
Old 01-31-2007, 04:45 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benny999
good point, didnt even really think about those hands when I posted.

I actually tanked on the flop then called. what would you do if the turn is a heart, the call station leads full pot and the tag calls again?
lol puke?

If you think the hand through I think this spot is either a clear push or a clear fold. You're not really worried about the donk (unless you've seem him make strong semi-bluffs OOP) so the big question is just how tricky the UTG player is.

If he's very straight-forward then I think it's a push. If he thinks a cpl levels deep then I think it's closer to a fold since he's likely to put you on a draw and feel very confident with you coming along for the ride.

I can remember folding a flush in this exact spot vs 2 villains but it was very very tough. In this particular hand, the complicated part is the donk-leader. If this player isn't a donk (and UTG is presumably aware of this) then it becomes an easier fold.

At this point though, I can understand both folding and raising. I think calling would be bad. The "optimistic" guess at UTG's hand would be KxQh. Donk is probably not folding so you can raise your flush and not be too worried about him (although like I mentioned before this only applies if you haven't seen him semi-bluff OOP which means his most likely holding are Kx, 2par, Q10 or set).

The big problem is UTG who imo either has the nut flush/Qh10h or KxQh/KJ playing conservitavely. I'd probably flip a coin, then push as I'm timing out regardless of the coinflip lol.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 01-31-2007, 05:01 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
I can remember folding a flush in this exact spot vs 2 villains but it was very very tough. In this particular hand, the complicated part is the donk-leader. If this player isn't a donk (and UTG is presumably aware of this) then it becomes an easier fold.
sounds exactly like this...the dnok was what made me so sure utg had the nut or QThh here, because he very likely was aware the other dude was a calling station, so he would've almost surely raised any hand with value on the flop.

I mean I was pretty confident about that, so think folding the flop was probably the best move, but still was tough being used to just looking at odds and optimistic about things.
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Genitruc
Old 01-31-2007, 05:23 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benny999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
I can remember folding a flush in this exact spot vs 2 villains but it was very very tough. In this particular hand, the complicated part is the donk-leader. If this player isn't a donk (and UTG is presumably aware of this) then it becomes an easier fold.
sounds exactly like this...the dnok was what made me so sure utg had the nut or QThh here, because he very likely was aware the other dude was a calling station, so he would've almost surely raised any hand with value on the flop.

I mean I was pretty confident about that, so think folding the flop was probably the best move, but still was tough being used to just looking at odds and optimistic about things.
yeah it's not huge deal either way, don't think you gave up a huge amount of equity either way.

btw, shouldn't we just get a room or something ben? This thread flirting is heating up
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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