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thizzSantaCruz
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05-26-2008, 06:26 AM
Post subject: I flop TPTK in a 3 bet pot and I want to fold
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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Villain is 27/20/5 and seems pretty good. The last couple of hands we have battled it out, with me taking down a flop with a lead, me 3 betting his open raise and taking it down. Because of this I think he is slightly more likely to play back at me here.
Hand #6567265462 begins at 2008/05/25
Dealing down cards
Dealt to hero[Ah Kc]
kenda1000 posts the small blind of $0.50
shipitoverhere2 posts the big blind of $1
agn74 raises to $3.50.
StarkIndustries folds.
hero raises to $15.
kenda1000 folds.
shipitoverhere2 folds.
agn74 calls $11.50.
Dealing Flop [9d Ac Jd]
agn74 checks.
hero bets $20.
agn74 raises to $250.10, and is all-in. ($120 for hero to call)
His call of me 3 bet was instant so it leads me to heavily discount AK. I can't see him turning QQ or KK into a bluff like this. Maybe a diamond draw like Adxd but I almost feel like he would have thought about calling or folding preflop with a hand like that. I want to squarely put him on JJ here. Is that bad? *take into account we are 155bb deep*
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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I think villain has a decent amount of FD's in his range, QT, AQ. Also, I'm not sure poeple usually 'overbet' a hand as strong as a set in a 3bet pot. I call.
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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^Yeah, looks like a combo draw, or a big steam. It's a call from me.
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,074
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I think villain has a decent amount of FD's in his range, QT, AQ. Also, I'm not sure poeple usually 'overbet' a hand as strong as a set in a 3bet pot. I call.
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A read would certainly help. The problem with the 3bet flat call is that 99 - QQ are solidly in his range, along with maybe AJ+ and ATs+. This is about the worst flop possible for Hero since it hits the sweet spot of villain's range so hard.
I agree that the betting pattern strongly suggests combo/big draw. So I'm probably calling the shove and throwing up when I pay off a fast-played set.
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thizzSantaCruz
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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Board: 9d Ac Jd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.365% 15.27% 12.09% 3477 2754.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 72.635% 60.54% 12.09% 13785 2754.00 { AA, JJ, 99, AJs+, KdQd, 8d7d, AKo, AJo }
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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call.
that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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I don't really agree with your range here SantaCruz. I think we have to weight away from sets because they don't really get played this way. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck, and this looks and quacks like a big draw (metaphor hell). I think he does have some sets/2pairs in his range *some* of the time, whereas he has big draws in his range all of the time. Also, eh, I guess he can have AA, but I think we have to weight away from that as well, so given that we're making sets less likely, and aces less likely, a set of aces is really unlikely. I think his range looks like this (I'm leaving out some combos to weight away. Dunno if there's a better way of doing this):
Board: 9d Jd Ac
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.963% 63.58% 02.39% 9441 354.50 { AhAs, JcJs, JhJs, 9c9h, 9h9s, AdKd, AdQd, AsJs, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, 8d7d }
Hand 1: 34.037% 31.65% 02.39% 4700 354.50 { AhKc }
He needs to be stone-bluffing hardly ever for us to break even. Remember, we've been pounding on him a little, so he may be frustrated (and let's be honest, this does looks like a big fat bluff, if it's not a combo draw).
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
call.
that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.
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Yeah, I'm being diplomatic with my range above, I think he has a set far less than I made out, so he probably doesn't even ever need to be bluffing for us to break even.
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thizzSantaCruz
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt
call.
that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.
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The thing about this check/bomb thing is that if he makes a normal raise of 3x of my 20 dollar cbet I only have 60 behind in a very large pot effectively commiting me and him. Shoving and raising are effectively the same thing because the money is going in either way.
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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DJJunkPauds
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 301
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
The thing about this check/bomb thing is that if he makes a normal raise of 3x of my 20 dollar cbet I only have 60 behind in a very large pot effectively commiting me and him. Shoving and raising are effectively the same thing because the money is going in either way.
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That's true. So why does he choose one over the other? One gives him more fold equity - he wants you to fold here. I.e combo draw/bluff.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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AA 4 bets preflop almost every time because when we 3 bet his UTG raise, because he have a very strong, tight range, so AA is very unlikely, and even more unlikely is KK.
also, bet the flop harder. 2/3 pot on this board is whack.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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tarath
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 101
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Snapcall
I like your flop betsizing here for a bet/call as it gives him an illusion of fold equity so hes more prone to make a big mistake.
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Timing tells would help but I snap call this.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tarath
Snapcall
I like your flop betsizing here for a bet/call as it gives him an illusion of fold equity so hes more prone to make a big mistake.
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yeah i guess he is aggro enough for this to work.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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thizzSantaCruz
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UG
Timing tells would help but I snap call this.
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I did give timing tells. He insta insta snap called preflop which strongly leads me to believe he doesn't have AK, and weights pocket pairs to be more likely in my mind. He waited about 3-5 seconds before shoving. I think this is a lot closer than a lot of people on this forum think. For what its worth I talked to ISF about the hand and he said fold. Personally as you all know I think its a fold. He has to be bluffing a lot here for this to work because thats what i beat. If I am beat I rarely have equity in the pot. If I am ahead my opponenet has a lot of equity.
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by UG
Timing tells would help but I snap call this.
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I did give timing tells. He insta insta snap called preflop which strongly leads me to believe he doesn't have AK, and weights pocket pairs to be more likely in my mind. He waited about 3-5 seconds before shoving. I think this is a lot closer than a lot of people on this forum think. For what its worth I talked to ISF about the hand and he said fold. Personally as you all know I think its a fold. He has to be bluffing a lot here for this to work because thats what i beat. If I am beat I rarely have equity in the pot. If I am ahead my opponenet has a lot of equity. |
Gah, sorry for not reading enough of your original post.
It's so much closer now but I still fold because you're just behind so often that it's pointless to throw money away. Like I said, you hate it when you fold a hand like this, but in the long run it's probably better. It just sucks that you never really ever feel good about it because you'll never know if you were beat or not for sure, even though you "know" you were probably beat most of the time...
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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id beat him in
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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thizzSantaCruz
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Santa Cruz
Posts: 894
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and how do we do that? by grossly over-shoving the flop?
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Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
and how do we do that? by grossly over-shoving the flop? |
I think he's saying he'd call Phil Hellmuth style.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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