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i dunno here...

  
 
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meeloche
Old 03-17-2008, 05:06 AM     Post subject: i dunno here... #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is a reg running 19/14/3.6
I have a note on him that he will raise cbets with air. We don't really have a relevant history. I realize I don't beat much more than a bluff but how likely is he to be bluffing here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($60.60)
Hero ($222.25)
CO ($153.15)
Button ($64.10)
SB ($62.60)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 5, 5, 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $16, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($40.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $27, BB calls $27.

River: ($94.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $53 (All-In), Hero?



 
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Marshall28
Old 03-17-2008, 10:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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with your read it seems like you played the hand entirely backwards. this is a great flop for him to c/r as a bluff cuz of how unlikely it is for it to hit u. so if u expect him to c/r u, why would you ever want to just call his raise when your hand is effectively Q high? It's like .. u induced the raise, so re-raise him, obv hes gonna have nothing a lot of the time so perfect spot to make a big semi bluff to commit yourself ... you're almost sure to have a ton of equity even if he does end up getting it in.

so if u called the flop becuz u think he has nothing, your draw is essentially useless since you'll never get paid off when u hit(since you're putting him on air). and you allow him to keep the lead in the betting, meaning if u brick the turn and he bets, like, now u r in a really crappy spot cuz your equity is essentially cut in half and you are probably facing a turn bet that will force u to a decision for your chips.

u lucked out in that u hit the T ... but its like now did u change your read from him having nothing and saying "oh well maybe he can have a 9 I guess and I can get value from that" ???? like ... if u put him on a bluff, when u bet the turn u let him play perfectly against u since he can fold when he has nothing and get the money in when he's actually got it.

shoulda check behind the turn to let him try to fire off another bluff on the river .... if he checks turn and checks river, then he probly has some type of showdown value like possibly a 9 or 66-88 and you can now safely get value from those hands w/out putting your stack at risk.
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nutsinho
Old 03-17-2008, 12:43 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 shitty, he prob has like 78 spades. very weird line by him
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griffey24
Old 03-17-2008, 01:20 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I think I prefer to check through this turn and call most/all rivers.

He's either got you owned or you're way ahead after spiking your T. It would suck to get c/bombed on this turn, esp given our flush outs.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 03-17-2008, 06:41 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
shitty, he prob has like 78 spades. very weird line by him
*edit* or 7h8h
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meeloche
Old 03-18-2008, 02:52 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I think I prefer to check through this turn and call most/all rivers.

He's either got you owned or you're way ahead after spiking your T. It would suck to get c/bombed on this turn, esp given our flush outs.
I like this, couple of questions:

a) I hit my flush on river, c/c, b/c?
b) Rivers a blank what amount am I calling/folding to?



 
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EzDuzIt
Old 03-18-2008, 03:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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hes not bluffing or vbetting worse, fold.
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wufwugy
Old 03-19-2008, 03:07 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Super standard turn check.
 
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meeloche
Old 03-19-2008, 04:48 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Definitely agree a turn check is much better. Thanks!

Anyway I ended up calling cause I'm a station and I had no clue where he was at and he had 99.



 
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Genitruc
Old 03-19-2008, 05:44 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 i would 3-bet flop to get him off A or K high

I would check back on turn

I would probably puke and fold riv cuz it s such a terrible bluff for him to make (unless he s terrible...)
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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griffey24
Old 03-19-2008, 01:47 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meeloche
Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
I think I prefer to check through this turn and call most/all rivers.

He's either got you owned or you're way ahead after spiking your T. It would suck to get c/bombed on this turn, esp given our flush outs.
I like this, couple of questions:

a) I hit my flush on river, c/c, b/c?
b) Rivers a blank what amount am I calling/folding to?
a) Well you're in position, so you can't c/c
But b/f might be hard, cause he could have been c/r a worse flush draw on the flop and so if he c/r when the flush comes it could be worse than yours. b/f is probably the best if he's solid and doesn't raise marginal hands in marginal spots (like a worse flush on a paired board). I'd imagine if you checked through turn and the flush hit on river he'd prob just lead so you can flat call it.

b) If river blanks I'm calling like most 2/3-3/4 pot size bets
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