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donkbee
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10-08-2008, 07:14 AM
Post subject: i don't like my top 2 anymore ($50NL PS)
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#1 (permalink)
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WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,605
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Button was running 36/10/1.13 over 110 hands. In the only notable hand that I played with him, he called a standard raise with KQo in the BB, check/called a Q hi flop, checked a flush draw on the turn, and then bet OOP when he rivered his flush.
What can he have that I beat?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($60.45)
Button ($87.75)
SB ($36.20)
Hero (BB) ($49.25)
UTG ($30.85)
MP ($6.75)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 , 7
3 folds, Button calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks
Flop: ($1.50) 3, 8, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, Button calls $1.25, 1 fold
Turn: ($4) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, Button raises to $10, Hero ...?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Quote:
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What can he have that I beat?
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What can he have that you don't beat?
He's repping a very thin range of made hands. There's too much air in his range to fold. Call and c/c most rivers would be my line.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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I fold. Who cares how thin his range is? It's not like he's at a level where he's doing this as a bluff.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Kagey
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 158
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When someone this passive reps a really thin range I usually give them credit, whenever I don't they always seem to show up with the 3.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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its a limped pot, so he could verrrrry easily have a 3, and i doubt hes calling a flop with a draw and then raising it on the turn, or for that matter a pair. that being said, fold.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
its a limped pot, so he could verrrrry easily have a 3, and i doubt hes calling a flop with a draw and then raising it on the turn, or for that matter a pair. that being said, fold.
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yah this. If it wasn't a limped pot, I probably wouldn't believe this "repping a 3 BS"... but limped pot I'll just drop it.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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I really have seen people raising stuff like a FD here sometimes, or even A8 thinking he can get value.
Quote:
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It's not like he's at a level where he's doing this as a bluff.
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Maybe his game is at a level he does this as bluff.
I know it's not the whole story (position, river plan, no reads, etc), but it's 6,50 in a 17,50 pot to call;
Quote:
Board: 3h 8s 7d 3d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.140% 19.41% 15.73% 111 90.00 { 8h7s }
Hand 1: 64.860% 49.13% 15.73% 281 90.00 { 88-77, A8s, A3s, K3s, Td9d,
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I play PS 50NL games and I wouldn't think all to long before calling really. People do so much weird stuff in this game that I've decreased folding decent hands to suddenly nut repping lines.
But I could be very wrong and the others are way better than me anyway, so probably listen to them. And calling does leave you in a very tough river spot where your mistakes could be large.
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Agree with what others have said already.
99/TT or 3x is my guess. Hope you folded.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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can he really show up with 99/TT?
as most say just muck since it's a limped pot I guess
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UG
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,855
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Probably not but he is 36/10 and really passive...with some of the ways these people play at these levels he could have AA/KK sometimes here, trying to "be deceptive" and all. Again, probably not and it's usually going to be 3x, but I wouldn't put it past this player.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I really have seen people raising stuff like a FD here sometimes, or even A8 thinking he can get value.
Quote:
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It's not like he's at a level where he's doing this as a bluff.
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Maybe his game is at a level he does this as bluff. |
Thinking like this is not good. I used to do this too where you say, "Well sometimes it's possibly he could bluff." When you're not thinking about his range. Of course he could be capable of having a bluff in there somewhere. But the vast majority of the time a guy this passive who has given us no reads to the contrary will have you smoked way more often than not.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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donkbee
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WELP
Join Date: May 2005
Location: so close but so far
Posts: 3,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UG
Hope you folded.
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I did, go me!
Thanks guys.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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is it just me who things he has AA?
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
is it just me who things he has AA?
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\
in short, yes.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I really have seen people raising stuff like a FD here sometimes, or even A8 thinking he can get value.
Quote:
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It's not like he's at a level where he's doing this as a bluff.
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Maybe his game is at a level he does this as bluff. |
Thinking like this is not good. I used to do this too where you say, "Well sometimes it's possibly he could bluff." When you're not thinking about his range. Of course he could be capable of having a bluff in there somewhere. But the vast majority of the time a guy this passive who has given us no reads to the contrary will have you smoked way more often than not. |
It's just, if someone goes from a very wide range to repping a very thin range....and let's say he's bluffing with air 5% of the time, there's a decent amount of air hands in his range.
But that 5% is an assumption ofcourse and can be pretty bad if in reality it's 0%.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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Nice turn card for him. I'd let this go given what we know about him knowing that sometimes he's pulling a fast one on me. With a different history, I'm going nowhere.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I really have seen people raising stuff like a FD here sometimes, or even A8 thinking he can get value.
Quote:
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It's not like he's at a level where he's doing this as a bluff.
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Maybe his game is at a level he does this as bluff. |
Thinking like this is not good. I used to do this too where you say, "Well sometimes it's possibly he could bluff." When you're not thinking about his range. Of course he could be capable of having a bluff in there somewhere. But the vast majority of the time a guy this passive who has given us no reads to the contrary will have you smoked way more often than not. |
It's just, if someone goes from a very wide range to repping a very thin range....and let's say he's bluffing with air 5% of the time, there's a decent amount of air hands in his range.
But that 5% is an assumption ofcourse and can be pretty bad if in reality it's 0%. |
Well if he's bluffing with air 5% of the time he still has air only 5% of the time.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
I play PS 50NL games and I wouldn't think all to long before calling really. People do so much weird stuff in this game that I've decreased folding decent hands to suddenly nut repping lines.
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How often I've seen weird lines and if I've given him cause yet to think I'm totally full of shit feed into my decision here.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Galapogos
Well if he's bluffing with air 5% of the time he still has air only 5% of the time.
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Ok ok...he bluffs his air 5% of the time, or he bluffs with 5% of his air.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Quote:
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What can he have that I beat?
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What can he have that you don't beat?
He's repping a very thin range of made hands. There's too much air in his range to fold. Call and c/c most rivers would be my line. |
What
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Massimo
Quote:
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Originally Posted by minSim
Quote:
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What can he have that I beat?
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What can he have that you don't beat?
He's repping a very thin range of made hands. There's too much air in his range to fold. Call and c/c most rivers would be my line. |
What |
It's a result of my thought process that I outlined in my other posts in this thread.
Let's take an example:
Villains flop calling range is 110 hands.
He raises 10 hands for value on the turn.
He raises 5% of his other hands on the turn, being 5 hands.
His raising range consists of 33% air.
In this particular hand, I think villains flop calling range is in a positive scenario is any 3, any 7, any 8, gutshots, maybe overs with BD draws.
Going from such a range to a range that beats us on the turn is going from a wide to a very narrow range. If he's indeed raising a certain percentage of his air hands as well, I think we can call.
But please feel free to tell me I'm wrong. I'm just telling my thoughtprocess.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,323
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I think you might be misapplying a concept minSim. People hear players talk about how someone's repping a very narrow range therefore must call. That's the logic they're using against players they know will make plays, like other decent TAggs.
It doesn't matter if this guy's repping a very narrow range if that's the only range he's going to make this play with. And thus far, we have no read to the contrary. Plus his stats would seem to back that up. Also, this guy will have more than K3 or A3, these guys are all about the s00ted cards.
Remember that saying to don't go broke in a limped pot? Well definitely don't do it with a counterfeited medium two-pair against a passive donk.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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