Hypothetical River Decison

I'm thinking c/f

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I'm thinking c/f

why?

close spot.... and depends how loosely he calls 3bets and how floaty and his unwillingness to fold draws.
I'm not sure how he plays draws on the flop in this spot but I'd say he's probably betting NFD's and K high FD's and Pair + fds and checking back hands like 78s, JcQc, JsQs, 98s,97s, T8+ . Vills range for calling turn contains most of the hands that he checks back flop with depending on how tight/loose he is, we'll assume he's tight for now and make his calling range 7h8h, 98s, 97s, T8s, TJs, TQs, TKs,ATs... maybe AhQh and some other random suited aces some of the time.

(The above range is assuming he's super standard, and without reads i think it's usually the safest option.)

To decide whether or not c/c is good here depends on what level he's on. I think your hand by the river is JJ Tx AQhh AKhh so he should be turning his hand into a bluff, but it's unlikely he's capable or willing to pull such a move with limited info. I find that most regs don't have the balls to turn made hands into bluffs so C/f is going to be the best play here and the lowest variance option. But if we find out later that he's calling alot more 3bs we should be adding more hands to his turn calling range and therefore be assuming he has alot more air by the river making it a C/c.

why do you not consider jamming here with your entire range?

Originally Posted by aka_red

why do you not consider jamming here with your entire range?

If we're playing against an aggro opponent that will turn made hands into bluffs on the river and ship busted draws then c/C'ing with our entire value range can be better. The problem with shoving our 'entire' range here is that our entire range plays better as a bluff catchy range because it's hard for us to get called by worse, and it's hard for us to have zero equity bluffs because most of our strong draws probably bet flop and shove turn (this is how i would play the majority of my range).

well clearly strong draws are different than ones like KQ/KJ or 67

sick spot.. More info needed about his btn calling range. If this is a decent sample size he seems like he prefers folding and 3betting to calling? Would he raise 9x on the turn? The only hands you lose to seem to be AQhh and 89s. I don't think he calls turn with many draws as most will be shitty, and don't prob doesn't turn Tx into a bluff. I'd c/f when he shoves AQhh for value.

Pre-flop discounts AA, KK, QQ, AK

Flush draw usually bets the flop. Ditto with sets.
Calling the turn with just an Ace and a big card seems too i-hate-money for someone with sane stats unless he's trying to re-steal from us for some reason (but why not just raise the turn then.) So I don't think the Ace really changed much.

Most likely hands:
QJ (no diamond), JTs, QTs, KTs, JJ, 88, 77, 66, 55

Discounted but sane hands:
XXdd (usually big cards), set, T9s, QQ mostly something he checked the flop with to mix it up.

I like a value bet (which I guess given stack sizes, balance, etc. is a shove.)