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aislephive
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12-13-2006, 09:27 PM
Post subject: Huge river call on scary board - second pair -- ??
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Downswinging holla!
Posts: 1,523
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Villain is 33/9, pretty aggro postflop and has shown down a couple bluffs but nothing major. Also he is the type of player who doesn't make many thin value bets, which was one of the reasons why I looked him up. This is never a bare Q, and I wouldn't expect him to show me a set or two pair given the line he took. I also tend to think he would just make a standard value bet with a real hand as opposed to pushing, as most players wouldn't even consider calling his bet without a near nut hand. I'm only really fearing TJ, but that's a bit unlikely considering I have two J's in my hand. I'd be a bit more worried about a 7x diamonds hand that backed into a straight if anything, but again I think he would make a smaller bet if he had the hand he was representing.
The reason I bet the turn (probably too small in retrospect) was because I put him squarely on a draw, and if he did have a queen, this would probably net me a free showdown if neither of us were to improve on the river since I think he would check behind any Q type of hand on the river. Therefore making his river bets easier to decipher as a bluff or not.
Thoughts?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
saw flop|saw showdown
MP ($201.25)
Button ($210.70)
SB ($242.23)
BB ($144.89)
Hero ($353.50)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J , J . SB posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises to $7, MP calls $7, Button calls $7, 2 folds.
Flop: ($24) 5, Q, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $16, MP folds, Button calls $16.
Turn: ($56) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $35, Button calls $35.
River: ($126) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button calls $210.70 (All-In), Hero calls $152.70.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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villain's hand could be Ad7d but, given your read, I obv don't hate the call
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I like the call if opp is not too good.
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aislephive
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Downswinging holla!
Posts: 1,523
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Bumpity bump.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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As much as your reasoning makes a lot of sense, you have to be right like 40% of the time and I feel like with Ad7d and JT, or maybe even playin you, you can't be that sure.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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Your turn bet is too weak imo.
As played, I really don't think your good often enough. fd missed, oesd hit.. 76s/87s makes sense too (floating with gutshot). I agree that sets/2p/top pair are very unlikely here.
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aislephive
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Downswinging holla!
Posts: 1,523
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Results: 4 2 no goot.
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