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HU - AI on a flush draw.

  
 
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bjsaust
Old 08-01-2007, 03:47 AM     Post subject: HU - AI on a flush draw. #1 (permalink)  
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I dont do this myself, but I seem to see it a lot:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1380)
Hero (t1620)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2.
Button calls t10, Hero checks.

Flop: (t40) A, 2, K (2 players)
Hero bets t40, Button raises to t120, Hero raises to t1600, Button calls t1240 (All-In).

Turn: (t3000) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3000) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2760

Results below:
Hero has 2c 2h (three of a kind, twos).
Button has Js 9s (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t3000.


I havnt actually done the maths here, but so often I see people putting their tourney on the line going AI on a flush draw, or even an OESD. Sometimes they're the one pushing, and I guess maybe thats ok if you add in the FE of pushing, kind of an all or nothing semi-bluff, but these guys who call pushes with draws seem a little crazy.
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Fnord
Old 08-01-2007, 05:51 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Yes, people make really terrible mistakes when the chips are still deep in these. I think there is some merit in just waiting for a good spot to stick it in against a lot of the field.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 08-01-2007, 07:24 AM #3 (permalink)  
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DONKTASTIC!!!!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord (t1750)
BB (t1250)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 7, 9.
Fnord raises to t90, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t180) 5, 3, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Fnord bets t120, BB raises to t240, Fnord calls t120.

Turn: (t660) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Fnord bets t1420 (All-In), BB calls t920 (All-In).

River: (t3000) T (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t2500

Results in white below:
BB has 5c Kd (one pair, fives).
Fnord has 7s 9s (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Fnord wins t3000.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Jack Sawyer
Old 08-01-2007, 07:31 AM     Post subject: Re: HU - AI on a flush draw. #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
I dont do this myself, but I seem to see it a lot
Pure donk play. Enjoy taking their money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
I havnt actually done the maths here
I did. They will outdraw you 1/4.
This means, 3/4 of the time they're simply throwing their buy-ins away. Again, enjoy.
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Fnord
Old 08-01-2007, 07:56 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Your math is misleading because it's not uncommon for a flush draw to have other outs and heads-up you'll rarely be up against a set or even 2 pair.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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bjsaust
Old 08-01-2007, 08:20 AM #6 (permalink)  
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They outdraw more than 1/4, since theres 2 streets still to come.

They're 1.86:1 or 35% to hit their flush. Fnords right that they may have other outs, but with two overs on the board, unless I'm pure bluffing they're unlikely to win with 1 pair, so we'll discount them for now.

Effective Pot is 1380 + 140 = 1520, and they need to put in 1240, so approximately 15:12 => 5:4 or 44%. This means I need to be bluffing 10% of the time or more for this to be profitable, however its not quite right as even if I'm bluffing I may either have a Q or hit a lower pair sometimes as well.

Probably not as definately bad as it first appeared, but definately still a bad play.
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