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How often?

  
 
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biondino
Old 03-09-2007, 09:53 AM     Post subject: How often? #1 (permalink)  
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This is an experimental thread of a sort. All I want you to do is post a percentage answer x 3, no comment, no discussion, to the question below. I also want you to work out your answer before you read the rest of the thread, so that you're not influenced by that of others.

You have position on a $50NL/$100NL 6max table vs an unknown. You raise pre-flop and he calls. The flop has two of a suit on it. He check calls your 4/5 pot bet. Turn is raggy; again he check calls your 3/4 pot bet. River is a third of that suit (board is unpaired) and the villain bets:

a) 1/3 pot
b) 2/3 pot
c) all-in

How often, in percentage terms, does he have a made flush (any flush beats you in this example) in each case?

Please give your answers to a, b and c and then, once we've got 25 or so replies, I'll take an average. Remember, please decide on your answer before checking out what cocco_bill said
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Genitruc
Old 03-09-2007, 10:05 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 a) 50%

b) 70%

c) 80%

edit : kind of impossible to answer without reads, but oh well.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Hornsta9
Old 03-09-2007, 12:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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a) 40%
b) 60%
c) 20%
Click for Blog
 
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Muzzard
Old 03-09-2007, 01:23 PM #4 (permalink)  
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This is highly dependent on reads and stack sizes!

A) 40%
B) 70%
C) 80% - he is obv a check calling donk! I HIT A FLUSSSSH!!!

Check calling down and then betting out when a flush hits, fairly obv a flush high % of time, those DONKS!
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bode
Old 03-09-2007, 01:39 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 a) 50%
b) 80%
c) 50%
Quote:
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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Hornsta9
Old 03-09-2007, 04:12 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hornsta9
c) 20%
I obviously give the Donks too much credit! DOH!!!!!
Click for Blog
 
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Miffed22001
Old 03-09-2007, 04:36 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 1. 40% (edited from 30%) 30% biatch

2. 75%

3. 65%


P.S wheres coco's post?
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XTR1000
Old 03-09-2007, 04:41 PM #8 (permalink)  
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a) 40%

b) 75%

c) 60%
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred View Post
xtr stand for exotic tranny retards
yo
 
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biondino
Old 03-09-2007, 04:43 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
P.S wheres coco's post?
He hasn't made one yet but simply by asking that I know you've been cheating
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Miffed22001
Old 03-09-2007, 04:49 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biondino
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
P.S wheres coco's post?
He hasn't made one yet but simply by asking that I know you've been cheating

hmmm, but my answers are diff from most others, although i admit i changed the first!

Edit: note P.S post script! doh!
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 03-09-2007, 04:55 PM #11 (permalink)  
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IowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enoughIowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enough
 Enough to the point where you're going to have to fold a lot to everyone of them except the 1/3rd pot bet.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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c-luvin
Old 03-09-2007, 07:53 PM #12 (permalink)  
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40, 80, 81
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cadmunkey
Old 03-10-2007, 11:54 AM #13 (permalink)  
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a) 60 - I call here tho if I have a decent hand with showdown value
b) 80
c) 90
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SmackinYaUp
Old 03-10-2007, 02:21 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Why no discussion?

This is very inaccurate without reads:

50%
66%
85%
He who drinks beer sleeps well.
He who sleeps well cannot sin.
He who does not sin goes to Heaven.
 
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biondino
Old 03-10-2007, 05:20 PM #15 (permalink)  
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You don't have reads, he's unknown. The problem is that unless you're playing a game with mostly regs, most of your opponents are unknown. I made this choice intentionally because it happens so often.

Thanks to everyone who's replied so far - a few more over the weekend and I'll do the maths, and THEN we can have the discussion
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gabe
Old 03-10-2007, 10:28 PM #16 (permalink)  
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not enough to fold
not enough to fold
not enough to fold
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