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How much do you bet on this turn?

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Cocco_Bill

12-25-2006, 07:22 AM Post subject: How much do you bet on this turn?

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Sweden

Posts: 1,254

Villain is a 40/10 donkey. What type of hand do you put him on? How much do you bet the turn to maximize your expected profit?

Texas Hold'em $20-$40 NL (real money), hand #1,408,858,694
Table El Cajon, 24 Dec 2006 11:25 PM ET

Seat 1: dasstryne ($4,225.00 in chips)
Seat 3: T.Man17 ($1,493.00 in chips)
Seat 5: 1best1 ($1,733.70 in chips)
Seat 6: evilbutt ($2,206.50 in chips)
Seat 7: lesaint_1 ($4,838.45 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero [ :Jd: , ] ($1,730.00 in chips)
Seat 9: ritoznojc ($4,721.00 in chips)
Seat 10: ladoga ($319.45 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
dasstryne posts blind ($10), T.Man17 posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
1best1 calls $20, evilbutt folds, lesaint_1 folds, Hero bets $100, ritoznojc folds, ladoga folds, dasstryne folds, T.Man17 folds, 1best1 calls $80.

FLOP [board cards

,:Kd:,

]
1best1 checks, Hero bets $140, 1best1 bets $400, Hero calls $260.

POT $1000
TURN [board cards

,:Kd:,

]
1best1 checks, Hero bets ?

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Fnord

12-25-2006, 07:30 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I figure $1k in the pot with about 1.3k behind.

We clearly want all of the money in the pot and it's probably going there.

Shoving all-in right now looks kinda like we're shoving a scare card in his face and makes it plainly obvious all of the money will probably go into the pot if he continues.

Half now, half on the river puts him on an installment plan and creates a little hope that showdown doesn't cost his stack. Does he quit when he's out of chips, hence does the threat of going broke threaten him more than the money does? Does he understand that calling half the money on the turn mean that the rest probably goes in? Would he see a smaller bet as a sign of strength or weakness?

Also, I think if we go with less than a shove, we pretty much have to stick the rest in on any river card.

IMHO, this comes down to a judgement call as to what gets him to put more money into the pot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Genitruc

12-25-2006, 12:47 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 4,463

Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point

either :
-all in (so he can call with a bad king ("omg he would never bet a flush that strong!")

-400 (completely pot-commit villain to any river)

The line I like the least is 2/3-3/4 pot since it looks so standard and so strong and leaves basically nothing in either stack for the river

when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?

Cocco_Bill

12-25-2006, 12:59 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Sweden

Posts: 1,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

I really like this reasoning and its exactly how i think in these situations. Notice also that I raise J9s to isolate a fish limping UTG and would instafold against any strong player limping in.

Heres the rest of the hand:

TURN [board cards 4D,KD,5C,3D ]
1best1 checks, Hero bets $400, 1best1 calls $400.

RIVER [board cards 4D,KD,5C,3D,KH ]
1best1 bets $833.70 and is all-in, Hero calls $830 and is all-in.

SHOWDOWN
1best1 shows [ KS,9H ]
Hero shows [ JD,9D ]
1best1 wins $3.70, Hero wins $3,487.

SUMMARY
Dealer: ladoga
Pot: $3,493.70, (including rake: $3)
dasstryne loses $10
T.Man17 loses $20
1best1 bets $1,733.70, collects $3.70, net $-1,730
evilbutt loses $0
lesaint_1 loses $0
Hero bets $1,730, collects $3,487, net $1,757
ritoznojc loses $0
ladoga loses $0

Genitruc

12-25-2006, 01:08 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 4,463

nh bill

Did you know I offer coaching at a reasonable price?

when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?

Cocco_Bill

12-25-2006, 02:00 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Sweden

Posts: 1,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

nh bill

Did you know I offer coaching at a reasonable price?

you are a good player, i bet many would be interested if you really offer coaching

12-25-2006, 02:29 PM

#7 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 1,855

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How much do you bet on this turn?

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