|
Numbr2intheWorld
|
11-30-2006, 05:20 AM
Post subject: How many hands needed to get a sense of your winrate?
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
|
|
In FR it seemed like 15k hands was good enough, but in 6-max there's a lot more varience. I was making like 20BB/100 over like 10k hands in 6-max while my brother who is just as good if not better than me was down after 15k hands! How many hands do you have to play in 6-max before you get a sense of what your winrate in the long run will be?
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
|
|
The long run is really long and your Win Rate is as much a function of table/seat/game selection as anything else.
|
|
|
|
Irisheyes
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
|
|
100k
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
100k
|
lol
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
really hard to say as you're constantly playing in different games, against different players, while your game is adapting (and your opponents as well).
Lots.
|
|
|
|
Numbr2intheWorld
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
|
|
Wow, i didn't think i'd get an answer like that... haha.
|
|
|
|
Numbr2intheWorld
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
|
|
How about if you are a winning player? After how many hands should you most definitely be up if you play 200NL or less and your good enough to run 6 BB/100 in the long long run.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
42.
|
|
|
|
Margin Of Error
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 254
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by euphoricism
42.
|
The answer is obviously 69.
|
|
She looked at me and said youz a baby right?
I told her, I'm 18 and live a crazy life
Plus I'll tell you what the 80's like
And I know what ladies like
|
|
Zeraw30
|
|
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1
|
|
I played 500k hands of poker and I had run of 100k hands break even and 50k hands at 10bb/100.
So honestly, you can never say for sure what's your "real" winrate is.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Here's the problem.
Say you play 50k hands. Whats your winrate? Say its 6bb/100.
Now you play another 50k. Expect it to be 6bb/100? Havent you gotten better since then? Have you changed stakes?
Play another 50k. Are you the same player as you were during the first 50k? Are you playing the same stakes?
So if you look at the time period before your first hand of poker, and 200k hands later, youre not the same person. Youre not playing the same people, and hence your winrate is entirely meaningless.
I often wish PT had just thrown that little box out of the code.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Zeraw30
I played 500k hands of poker and I had run of 100k hands break even and 50k hands at 10bb/100.
So honestly, you can never say for sure what's your "real" winrate is.
|
Welcome to the boards sir
|
|
|
|
jyms
|
|
Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
|
|
I like the other box better. TRUE HOURLY WINRATE $$/HR that's how I know when I can quit my day job.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
You do realize that fluctuates as much as your winrate, right?
|
|
|
|
jyms
|
|
Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
|
|
yea but every time it's at $100/hr I think about calling in sick the next day.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
I like the way you think.
|
|
|
|
Irisheyes
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
100k
|
lol |
Sorry Imissed a few zeros...
I ment infinity.
|
|
|
|
Numbr2intheWorld
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
|
|
Everytime i look at my PT stats i wonder why i'm in college....
|
|
|
|
elipsesjeff
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Massimo
Everytime i look at my PT stats i wonder why i'm in college....
|
So you can understand those PT stats.
I'm glad to see this question is asked as much in this forum as it is in LHE. Frankly, I'm tired of answering.
|
Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com
More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
|
|
aislephive
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Downswinging holla!
Posts: 1,523
|
|
There is no real answer to this question since it fluctuates so often.
|
|
|
|
johnny_fish
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
|
|
95% confidence interval: winrate +/- 2*(standard deviation)/sqrt(#hands)
Make sure to get the units right.
|
|
|
|
Numbr2intheWorld
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
|
|
That's just a typical math law, right?
can you get the standard deviation through PT?
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
You can, but I dont remember where.
|
|
|
|
euphoricism
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
|
|
Found it.
Sessions tab, more detail, its in the white box on the bottom of the screen that pops up.
|
|
|
|
johnny_fish
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
|
|
It's usually around 40 bb/100.
|
|
|
|
jo
|
|
Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 166
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by johnny_fish
It's usually around 40 bb/100.
|
That seems kinda low to me.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
Linear Mode
