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How low should we go? (discussion on exploiting unbalanced ranges)

  
 
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surviva316
Old 04-20-2010, 07:09 AM     Post subject: How low should we go? (discussion on exploiting unbalanced ranges) #1 (permalink)  
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 so i've been playing a fair amount of HU lately, and it's led to a lot of contemplating on spots where regs' ranges naturally become very very unbalanced at small stakes.

So let's say for this spot, villain is a standard 100nl reg: like 20/16 over a 150 hand sample, 5% 3b with his resteal being around 7%. he's 4/10 folding to flop cbets so far and has raised 1 of those 10 cbets. let's say for the heckuvit, we've seen him showdown with some kinda weakish implied odds hand in an ATS spot before like Q9s or something.

so, in this hypothetical spot, even without a huge DB on this villain or any kind of soul reading notes on him or anything, we assume that villain's range for a c/r is going to be retardedly unbalanced 'cause he never has KK, almost never has AK, and i very very rarely see described villain c/r TPGK for value, and obv there are all sorts of combos of draws.

also, his sizing weighs us a bit toward it NOT being value 'cause his sizing is pretty small to be doing it for value on such a wet board.

so the question is: what's the worst hand we wanna call with without any more reads or any bigger sample than what is given here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($143.50)
BB ($100)
UTG ($439.60)
MP ($100)
CO ($58.50)
Hero (Button) ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with XxYy
3 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 7, 4, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($30.50) K (2 players)
BB bets $18, Hero calls $18

River: ($66.50) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
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oskar
Old 04-20-2010, 01:04 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Draws are a huge part of his range. If you have a high cb% in LP (when you have a wide opening range) and don't like folding, he might be adjusting by c/raising Kx as well. But it's up to you to figure out if he makes that kind of adjustment. If he doesn't, then I peel the flop with 7x+. Bluffcatcher is a bluffcatcher.
The lower the highcard on the flop, the better I'd want my bluffcatcher to be because of overcards he can hit both to bluff you off and improve on the turn and river. OOP I'd want tpnk+ as well.

I would always supergayvaluebet the river with any pair - something that he might hero call with A high.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 04-20-2010, 04:02 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'd call with at least QQ+ just because 87 has a better chance of getting sucked out by fd with over cards. You could very well call the flop and turn with AQ or better though.
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surviva316
Old 04-21-2010, 03:02 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 cool.

so let's say we have no relevant reads on bet sizing, and instead villain makes it 14.50 on the flop and 28->36 or so on the turn leaving behind a 2/3 PSB shove on the river. how much does this affect our continuing range?
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