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How do I calculate my equity here? - 25NL

  
 
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 07-10-2008, 10:47 AM     Post subject: How do I calculate my equity here? - 25NL #1 (permalink)  
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 I have a general idea but would like to know how to get a more accurate answer myself.

Villain is 28/13/1.05 3bet: 3% over 124 hands.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players

Stacks:
UTG Missjune23 ($25.00)
CO dajobstl ($21.35)
BTN wazier ($44.50)
SB carmo88 ($27.10)
BB Hero ($36.95)
[Missjune23 posted $0.25]

Pre-flop: ($0.60, 5 players) Hero is BB
Missjune23 checks, dajobstl calls $0.25, wazier raises to $0.75, carmo88 calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50, Missjune23 calls $0.50, dajobstl calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.75, 5 players)
carmo88 checks, Hero bets $2, 3 folds, carmo88 raises to $6, $4 to Hero ($34.2)?

Based on PF action, I don't put him on TT+. The hands I put him on are 33, 55, 99, 35, 95, 93, 9T+. So using pokerstove, this is what I inputted:

Board: 3s 5s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.532% 46.77% 01.76% 31484 1188.00 { 9s6s }
Hand 1: 51.468% 49.70% 01.76% 33460 1188.00 { 99, 55, 33, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 95s, 93s, 53s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 95o, 93o, 53o }

So basically its a coin flip. I'm not completely sure if this is the proper way to calculate equity so any advice on this would be appreciated.

Say I think villain's FE is very low if I re-pop flop and push, what would be the best course of action to take? I'm thinking calling flop, see what turn brings and if I miss, fold to a over half pot sized bet?
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Fnord
Old 07-10-2008, 10:58 AM #2 (permalink)  
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More or less.

I've shoved this spot, I've flat called this spot. I don't think it matters much either way but I prefer a call just because this looks like a set.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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FlyingSaucy
Old 07-10-2008, 01:05 PM #3 (permalink)  
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That's a weak raise for a set on a kinda drawy board. He's giving you an opportunity to draw so I'd flat.

But is it possible he's CRing a strong flush draw?
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
Old 07-10-2008, 01:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Could be possible. Would someone with a Total AF around 1 play a draw so aggressively tho?
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bigred
Old 07-10-2008, 02:46 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I'm leaning towards set. Call and reevaluate.
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dalecooper
Old 07-10-2008, 02:50 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Looks like probably a set to me. I'd flat call and see what develops. If you make a flush, don't fold it. Pushing over here is better if villain isn't showing so much strength (so you have more fold equity, and also more equity if he calls, since his hand range would include more lone pairs and draws).
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dsaxton
Old 07-11-2008, 12:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I would push, since this is the play with maximum expected fun.
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kmind
Old 07-11-2008, 05:22 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Yeah I call and see a turn. His range is pretty tight. Also, not sure how you put 95/93 into his range
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