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how bad is this river c/r bluff?

  
 
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benny999
Old 05-07-2007, 12:31 AM     Post subject: how bad is this river c/r bluff? #1 (permalink)  
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I think it might be bad since even though the river bet left a lot behind, he must have a decent hand to bet with. i just figured it prob wasn't a flush, and really didn't want to call and lose to AK or something.
or do you think it actually a decent play to try to get the same hand or 2pr to fold?

reads--
i don't know a lot about villain, except he hasn't done anything weird, is a 25/15 multitabler, and insta called the turn (that's why i didn't think flush).
i've been mostly nitty/tag.

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2./$4.
5 players
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Stack sizes:
Hero: $1022.90
CO: $180.40
Button: $453.15
SB: $261
BB: $413.70

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $14, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 4 A J ($34, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $26, Hero calls.

Turn: 8 ($86, 2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button calls.

River: 2 ($186, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $95, Hero raises all-in $932.9
$268 to call
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 05-07-2007, 01:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 interesting...
Check out my blog http://suited-aces.com
 
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gabe
Old 05-07-2007, 01:30 AM #3 (permalink)  
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if you dont know alot about villian, wouldnt you want to play the hand in a really straightforward way (like by betting the flop?)
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benny999
Old 05-07-2007, 01:57 AM #4 (permalink)  
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i thought to check the flop since i was starting to pfr and c-bet more lately so concerned a little of getting bluff raised or something, and it seems to induce bluffs often.
and i like it if ppl know i check good hands after pfr sometimes (3 ppl were regulars including the villain).
also i experiment more if i've been running good lately...

anyway do you mean you wouldn't do this without knowing more of villain?
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griffey24
Old 05-07-2007, 02:21 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I'm not disagreeing that he might not have a flush here, but I guess I don't get the point.

What worse hands are gonna call your push?

(none.. but thats fine since you're not pushing here for value I wouldn't think)

but what BETTER hands are folding your push? Are you trying to get a possible two pair to fold here? Cause if not, your hand has showdown value. If you don't think he has the flush, why not just check-call?
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Genitruc
Old 05-07-2007, 03:27 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 love it
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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minSim
Old 05-07-2007, 07:56 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
I like it more with air.
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mcatdog
Old 05-07-2007, 11:28 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minSim
Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
I like it more with air.
Nope, he pretty much never has the best hand here.
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griffey24
Old 05-07-2007, 11:56 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by minSim
Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
I like it more with air.
Nope, he pretty much never has the best hand here.
Based on what fact? The fact that villain is somewhat value betting this river on a scary board, instead of checking through?

reads on villain would help narrow his range for betting this river, thats for sure!
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I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
 
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gabe
Old 05-07-2007, 12:57 PM #10 (permalink)  
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the guy could have KdQ or KdT, but what else is pure bluff
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 05-07-2007, 03:06 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
if you dont know alot about villian, wouldnt you want to play the hand in a really straightforward way (like by betting the flop?)
But this also implies that villain doesn't know a lot about him, which makes this a flush a ton in opps opinion.
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gabe
Old 05-07-2007, 03:31 PM #12 (permalink)  
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nah, dont assume villian is as smart as us
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benny999
Old 05-09-2007, 06:11 AM #13 (permalink)  
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thanks for the thoughts so far. c/r on the river as a bluff is a relatively new strategy for me so i appreciate any ideas on important aspects/times to do it.

so if we assume villain has at least AQ here, but prob not a flush, and is capable of making reads/laydowns, does anybody else think it's a good idea to try and get him to fold?

or lets say you are the villain, does my line look too weird for a flush?
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zenbitz
Old 05-09-2007, 05:14 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I would think that a c/r river bluff would work better if you set it up with a c/r for value on the river.... question is, is he making "hero" calls with 2p/sets.
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