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How bad is this?

  
 
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TheLeakyFaucet
Old 04-08-2009, 06:24 PM     Post subject: How bad is this? #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is fairly tight but has shown that she can lead a somewhat wide range... 21/15ish overall, spazzes sometimes is not that good in general

Basically on the river I can definitely check back but I feel like I may as well bet to get her off of most 2pr and maybe even a 8 sometimes?
Of course I am good occasionally but I feel like this bet is still +ev because I can rep a K so easily and I think she triples a K a ton of the time... thoughts?

EDIT: I should mention that I feel like Jenn is not a very good handreader either... so take that fwiw

PokerStars Game #26863261583: Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2009/04/08 12:05:01 ET
Table 'Golson III' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Jenn415 ($637 in chips)
Seat 2: dragons1974 ($531.90 in chips)
Seat 3: niahoo ($294.90 in chips)
Seat 4: Jamie217 ($1327.05 in chips)
Seat 5: JasonOfHell ($600 in chips)
Jenn415: posts small blind $3
dragons1974: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jamie217 [Ad Jd]
niahoo: folds
Jamie217: raises $12 to $18
JasonOfHell: folds
Jenn415: calls $15
dragons1974: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [9h Td Jc]
Jenn415: bets $36
dragons1974: folds
Jamie217: calls $36
*** TURN *** [9h Td Jc] [2h]
Jenn415: bets $86
Jamie217: calls $86
*** RIVER *** [9h Td Jc 2h] [Qc]
Jenn415: checks
Jamie217: bets $226
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-08-2009, 06:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 i mean you're basically trying to bet off a set or like 87. But you have a crapload of K's in your range, and your line is totally plausible. There are players who will fold those hands here and if your read is she's one of them go ahead. Even if you get called its pretty good for your image.

I'd definitely bet pot on the river if i'm doing this though.
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meeloche
Old 04-08-2009, 08:21 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I pretty much agree with your assessment of her. The problem is I don't know how much she folds the river here. I'd imagine she has some 2pr in her range as well.



 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 04-09-2009, 04:49 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I'd fold the turn.

But as played I kinda like it. Your hand by the river is KK/KJ a solid amount of the time.
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Alexos
Old 04-09-2009, 05:02 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I like this, and I like the sizing. I guess it all depends on how stationny she is, given description i wouldn't be surprised if she calls with 8x (always) or sets/2pair (sometimes) so meh but vs a lot of regs this is v.good.
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