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Lukie
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12-19-2006, 05:24 PM
Post subject: how bad is this
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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5/10, 5 handed, hero and SB have 1k, CO covers.
First hand at the table.
Unknown CO opens to 40, good TAgg regular who's range isn't crazy or nitty here makes it 150, I push in the BB with   . Thoughts?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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a lot of taggs ive seen generally threebet lighter from the button, and not so light from the blinds. However, your have IS 30% equity vs QQ+ AK, which he doesn't always have obviously, and he does fold a fair bit.
If you think he folds more than 2/3 of his reraising range to your shove, then its plus ev.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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This really needs an actually EV calc.
I'm assuming both players are folding everything except AA, KK.
range of the CO... he's an unknown, i'll put him on a (possibly conservative) range of :
78s-AKs, 77+, QJ+.
The SB, i'll put him on AQ, AK, TT-AA.
ok, so now how do you calc the odds. I want the odds the CO had AA or KK. Then the odds the SB has AA or KK. Then the combined odds.
Looking at it right now, you're putting in 1000 to win 225. approx 4.5:1 odds. i'm pretty sure the odds (someone check me on this) that the SB is 5:2 or 2.5:1 he has AA or KK. however, if he has KK you aren't a terrible dog, still looks like it's -EV. And that's disregarding the CO.
So yeah, bad...
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CTS
Let's do some of the math behind preflop 4-bet shoving. I will be using PokerStove for most of the analysis. It's really nice free software, I'd highly recommend checking it out. Consider a 3/6NL game with $600 effective stacks. I open from middle position with A5 for $21. The button, an aggressive 22/17 player, reraises me to $77. I shove all-in for $600. Let's assume he will call me with { QQ+, AKs, AKo }. Against this range my equity is right at 30%. Actually, against just about any sane calling range I have around 30% equity with a suited ace.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.1525 % 28.99% 01.16% { A5s }
Hand 2: 69.8475 % 68.69% 01.16% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So when my 4-bet shove is called my expectation is
0.30 * (600 + 21 + 6 + 3) - 0.70 * (600 - 21) = -$216
When he folds to my 4-bet shove, I win
77 + 21 + 6 + 3 = $107
Then if he folds to my 4-bet shove 2/3 of the time, the play is roughly neutral EV with A5 in this situation (2*107 - 216 = -$2 in EV). His calling range of queens or beter and ace-king is precisely the top 2.6% of hands. So for him to fold to my 4-bet shove more than 2/3 of the time and make my shove profitable, he needs to be reraising me with more than 7.8% of his hands. The top 7.8% of hands is the range { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AQo+ }. When I have a loose, wild image, players are 3-betting me light with all sorts of stuff, including suited connectors and small pairs, most of which they will have to fold to a push so the shove shows an immediate positive expectation.
My opponents see that I am 4-bet shoving with a loose range and they may try to adjust and start calling me more frequently. The problem for them is that I'm also shoving with my monsters (aces, kings, and ace-king), so by calling me with say TT they will be a huge dog a significant portion of the time. This style of play is difficult to adjust to and I frequently got absurd amounts of action when I shouldn't have:
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Excellent quote renton. Linky?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,992
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cts's blog on cardrunners
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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nh. I'd obv prefer if there was a bit more of an active history between the players though.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($21.75)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($80.85)
UTG ($48.70)
MP ($58.30)
CO ($53.95)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 , A.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $2, Button calls $2, Hero raises to $49.5
Villain #2 (btn) actually called me with 44 and I won the flip. And now I'm getting allll sorts of action.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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its a terrible hand given you know nothing about how they have been playing up until the hand
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($21.75)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($80.85)
UTG ($48.70)
MP ($58.30)
CO ($53.95)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 , A .
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $2, Button calls $2, Hero raises to $49.5
Villain #2 (btn) actually called me with 44 and I won the flip. And now I'm getting allll sorts of action.
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This isn't the same situation. Lukie was 4-betting to pick up a reraised pot. You just pushed over one raise and risked much more to win much less (relatively and absolutely). If you did this with the intent of showing, that's fine. You have less of a chance of getting called anyway.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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meh
without reads it's not all that gross or that great imo
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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original caller thought and called with kings, 3-bettor insta-folds, board A57TK, HYACHACHACH HE 2-OUTED ME THAT SONOFABITCH. I'm not really worried about the original raiser though because he's wrong to call here against my range without KK/AA (I think?), it's the other guy that worries me. If he's 3-betting a typical range though but won't call a push without KK+, then I like my bet.
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