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How abvious is my hand?

  
 
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Irisheyes
Old 12-26-2006, 10:44 PM     Post subject: How abvious is my hand? #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($1836.45)
MP ($554.85)
CO ($653.40)
Button ($1739.86)
Hero ($604.20)
BB ($669.06)

Preflop: Hero is SB with x, y. Hero posts a blind of $3.
3 folds, Button raises to $22, Hero (poster) calls $19, BB raises to $60, Button folds, Hero calls $44.

Flop: ($154)
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Genitruc
Old 12-26-2006, 11:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 if you have AA/KK vnh

If you have 55-99 your hand is not very vell disguised.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 12-27-2006, 01:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 id dump anything but AA/KK here, perhaps not QQ against a known aggressive who plays AK hard.
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Harry
Old 12-27-2006, 04:39 AM #4 (permalink)  
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You have PP lower than JJ
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Irisheyes
Old 12-27-2006, 05:14 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
id dump anything but AA/KK here, perhaps not QQ against a known aggressive who plays AK hard.
The 13x rule says I can call.
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aislephive
Old 12-27-2006, 07:22 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Some chat between me and Irisheyes about the subject ..

IrisheyesFTR (1:21:10 AM): ya
IrisheyesFTR (1:22:47 AM): http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...tmIrisheyesFTR (1:22:52 AM): talk to me
alaSkandevil81 (1:29:41 AM): im positiv
ealaSkandevil81 (1:29:47 AM): that you have a spade and a dimaond
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:14 AM): hmm....
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:18 AM): I dunno
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:23 AM): well you cant flop a flush
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:24 AM): fold
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:48 AM): lol
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:59 AM): nah if you have a small pair playing for set value here that sucks
IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): why? it's 13x
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): 13x not good enough
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:14 AM): also if i was BB
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:17 AM): your hand is face up
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:22 AM): and since you're a tag
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:44 AM): what is my hand?
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:28 AM): a pair
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:33 AM): small
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:53 AM): YAY obv
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:58 AM): ok
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:56 AM): id probably never stack off here with an overpair against you
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:02 AM): unless we have history
IrisheyesFTR (1:26:27 AM): now you're getting somewhere
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:36 AM): not only that, even against a range of AA/KK you dont have as great of equity as you think
IrisheyesFTR (1:27:06 AM): what do you mean?
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:59 AM): ok when you flop a set against AA/KK
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:02 AM): you figure
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:07 AM): hey im a 90% fav
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:09 AM): right
IrisheyesFTR (1:27:34 AM): k
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:21 AM): the problem is
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:26 AM): take 22 vs AA
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:29 AM): pokerstove
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:31 AM): or something
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:39 AM): flop is 2c xx
IrisheyesFTR (1:28:03 AM): 80%
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:48 AM): your equity is 81
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:49 AM): yes
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:21 AM): so that means when you flop a set against AA/KK assuming you never fold fearing a higher set (very reasonable) you lose 1/5 the time
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:37 AM): instead of the 1/10 times you thought you would
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:49 AM): because you'll get set over setted and stuff
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:01 AM): thats when his range is just AA/KK
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:14 AM): although we're not folding 22 on AK2 flops
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:21 AM): for the sake of the argument
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:29 AM): because nobody folds a set
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:32 AM): ina RR pot
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:46 AM): now when you add AK/AQ
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:00 AM): and stuff like any pp
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:21 AM): but overall still a tight range lets say TT+/AK
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:36 AM): now when you flop a set you dont always get paid off
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:13 AM): because TT isnt stacking off usually on almost any board, and obviously one overcard is likely
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:38 AM): now AK/AQ is almost never getting stacked when we hit a set
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:43 AM): because they have to hit too
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:51 AM): and that doesnt happen often
IrisheyesFTR (1:32:16 AM): wait wait stop for a sec
IrisheyesFTR (1:32:28 AM): I get all that you're saying
alaSkandevil81 (1:39:19 AM): k
IrisheyesFTR (1:33:41 AM): consider this
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:00 AM): BB is a solid TAG
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:08 AM): my hand is face up
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:27 AM): Here is my real point
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:51 AM): I can c/r any flop and push the turn, and he folds all of his hands
alaSkandevil81 (1:41:43 AM): here is the problem with that
IrisheyesFTR (1:35:05 AM): as a bluff
alaSkandevil81 (1:42:20 AM): one, being that even though i said id fold any overpair there if you c/r assuming no history, a lot of players would still felt an overpair there
IrisheyesFTR (1:36:16 AM): ok
alaSkandevil81 (1:43:04 AM): two, you have almost no outs when called, and assuming he has a tight range, he'll call way too often for it to be a profitable bluff
IrisheyesFTR (1:38:01 AM): hmmm...
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gabe
Old 12-27-2006, 07:37 AM #7 (permalink)  
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depends on what you think of bb and button AND how good you are
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Genitruc
Old 12-27-2006, 07:40 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point
 I agree with everything aisle is saying here.

but if you don't know he's a very good player then call getting 13x. He won't fold overpairs enough to make your call unprofitable.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Irisheyes
Old 12-27-2006, 08:06 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Some other chat on the sublect:

IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): Sup where were you?
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): watchin superman
IrisheyesFTR (1:32:14 AM): eh.. why?
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): rented it
IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): lolo you could have at least said it was a bad christmas present
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): lol no a friend rented it
IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): oh... girl?
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): no
IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): you're gay
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): sorry


or something along those lines anyway.
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Renton
Old 12-27-2006, 02:57 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 if the button is loose you need to stop calling here with small pairs to begin with
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Renton
Old 12-27-2006, 02:57 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 as in, folding to the first raise
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-27-2006, 04:32 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 JJ
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Alibi
Old 12-27-2006, 04:49 PM #13 (permalink)  
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swiggidy
Old 12-27-2006, 05:16 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alibi
OBVIOUS
Please fix the spelling in the title
(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-27-2006, 05:30 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 It's a pocket pair right?
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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Irisheyes
Old 12-27-2006, 08:10 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
if the button is loose you need to stop calling here with small pairs to begin with
I doubt it. I just need to reraise a little bit.
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Warpe
Old 12-27-2006, 08:18 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alibi
OBVIOUS
Please fix the spelling in the title
he types with an Irish accent
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Irisheyes
Old 12-28-2006, 02:29 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
Originally Posted by swiggidy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alibi
OBVIOUS
Please fix the spelling in the title
he types with an Irish accent
Haha hey this is a serious thread!
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Genitruc
Old 12-28-2006, 02:50 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point
 If button is aggressive and c bets a lot of flops, c/raising any flop is pretty sexy (unless it's like AKQ monotone none of your suit lol). He'll have a tough time putting you on JJ.

As played you're gonna find yourself in one of those beatiful marginal situations where, without a strong read, it doesn't really matter what you do. Just call and reevaluate the flop depending on texture, Villain's apparent strength etc...
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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dsaxton
Old 12-28-2006, 06:38 AM #20 (permalink)  
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The stuff aisle said is not entirely accurate. Your equity against {A-A, K-K} when you're holding 2-2 is not 80% when the flop comes 2, 5, T.
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aislephive
Old 12-28-2006, 07:04 AM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
The stuff aisle said is not entirely accurate. Your equity against {A-A, K-K} when you're holding 2-2 is not 80% when the flop comes 2, 5, T.
Your equity against that range on a 2c xy flop is 81%. Obviously if x and y are never A/K then that changes things. My point is you're never folding a set when you hit one for the sake of the argument even if his hand is KNOWN to be AA/KK (meaning we don't fold 22 on an AK2 flop even though his range is AA/KK).
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Thee One
Old 12-28-2006, 02:48 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aislephive
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
The stuff aisle said is not entirely accurate. Your equity against {A-A, K-K} when you're holding 2-2 is not 80% when the flop comes 2, 5, T.
Your equity against that range on a 2c xy flop is 81%. Obviously if x and y are never A/K then that changes things. My point is you're never folding a set when you hit one for the sake of the argument even if his hand is KNOWN to be AA/KK (meaning we don't fold 22 on an AK2 flop even though his range is AA/KK).
Why not? isn't that -EV?
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aislephive
Old 12-28-2006, 03:34 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thee One
Quote:
Originally Posted by aislephive
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
The stuff aisle said is not entirely accurate. Your equity against {A-A, K-K} when you're holding 2-2 is not 80% when the flop comes 2, 5, T.
Your equity against that range on a 2c xy flop is 81%. Obviously if x and y are never A/K then that changes things. My point is you're never folding a set when you hit one for the sake of the argument even if his hand is KNOWN to be AA/KK (meaning we don't fold 22 on an AK2 flop even though his range is AA/KK).
Why not? isn't that -EV?
It was just for the sake of the argument, if the flop comes K25 you can't get away, because he could have AA. If we add stuff like smaller overpairs and AK/AQ then their range is more accurate in real life, and it's harder to extract value from that range, and it's also a lot less defined. My point was that even when they have AA/KK, your going to lose when you flop a set 1/5 the time, either to a set over set on the flop or the turn / river a high set or some wierd straight/flush.
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Lukie
Old 12-28-2006, 03:59 PM #24 (permalink)  
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 your hand is pretty abvious (i lol'd ) looking like a small-mid pair. Against a typical opponent's 3-betting range, there's virtually no difference after the second raise.

assuming you're just trying to spike a set, villain in the hand appreciates the donation.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 12-28-2006, 06:05 PM #25 (permalink)  
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 You have a Pocket pair.
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Irisheyes
Old 12-28-2006, 07:22 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
your hand is pretty abvious (i lol'd ) looking like a small-mid pair. Against a typical opponent's 3-betting range, there's virtually no difference after the second raise.

assuming you're just trying to spike a set, villain in the hand appreciates the donation.
Read the AIM chat and comment then please.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-28-2006, 08:31 PM #27 (permalink)  
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 reading the AIM chat I think calling is correct if you have reads. good point.
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Lukie
Old 12-28-2006, 11:01 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
your hand is pretty abvious (i lol'd ) looking like a small-mid pair. Against a typical opponent's 3-betting range, there's virtually no difference after the second raise.

assuming you're just trying to spike a set, villain in the hand appreciates the donation.
Read the AIM chat and comment then please.
I skimmed through it very briefly, but you cannot expect people to read through that very long dialect in detail.

You have to understand that upwards of 1/5 of the time that you flop a set, you will lose the pot to a bigger overpair, any halfway decent tagg will squeeze here with AK pretty much every time (and more then just AK/big pair if he's any good). Plus you have to consider that an overcard to a big pair will kill your action a lot of the time, and that bluffing generally sucks in these spots because it's a lot to win a little and nobody folds big 1-pair hands in reraised pots.
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gabe
Old 12-28-2006, 11:06 PM #29 (permalink)  
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Warpe
Old 12-29-2006, 01:21 AM #30 (permalink)  
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your play depends on what you think of them, what they think of you, what they think you think of them, and your cards
I like that.
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Irisheyes
Old 12-29-2006, 01:35 AM #31 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
your hand is pretty abvious (i lol'd ) looking like a small-mid pair. Against a typical opponent's 3-betting range, there's virtually no difference after the second raise.

assuming you're just trying to spike a set, villain in the hand appreciates the donation.
Read the AIM chat and comment then please.
I skimmed through it very briefly, but you cannot expect people to read through that very long dialect in detail.

You have to understand that upwards of 1/5 of the time that you flop a set, you will lose the pot to a bigger overpair, any halfway decent tagg will squeeze here with AK pretty much every time (and more then just AK/big pair if he's any good). Plus you have to consider that an overcard to a big pair will kill your action a lot of the time, and that bluffing generally sucks in these spots because it's a lot to win a little and nobody folds big 1-pair hands in reraised pots.

My argument is that because my hand is so face up, I can make a solid villian (the BB) fold almost any hand post flop because he will be 100% sure that I have a set.

This thread is not about implied odds.
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Miffed22001
Old 12-29-2006, 02:23 AM #32 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
your hand is pretty abvious (i lol'd ) looking like a small-mid pair. Against a typical opponent's 3-betting range, there's virtually no difference after the second raise.

assuming you're just trying to spike a set, villain in the hand appreciates the donation.
Read the AIM chat and comment then please.
I skimmed through it very briefly, but you cannot expect people to read through that very long dialect in detail.

You have to understand that upwards of 1/5 of the time that you flop a set, you will lose the pot to a bigger overpair, any halfway decent tagg will squeeze here with AK pretty much every time (and more then just AK/big pair if he's any good). Plus you have to consider that an overcard to a big pair will kill your action a lot of the time, and that bluffing generally sucks in these spots because it's a lot to win a little and nobody folds big 1-pair hands in reraised pots.

My argument is that because my hand is so face up, I can make a solid villian (the BB) fold almost any hand post flop because he will be 100% sure that I have a set.

This thread is not about implied odds.
isnt it horribly difficult for opp to fold an overpair here if he c-bets any street and we c/r all in ?
Pot is $140 on flop. Even if opp checks behind and bets ~$100 on turn and you c/r all in he has ~$400 left to call into a pot of $800.
Thems good odds even considering the action

I dont disagree with your arguement but how often is opp going to talk himself into you donking off into him with say QQ/KK or just isnt able to fold for those pot odds?
Of course, if you call and open push.... (but that gets called right because it looks so much like a bluff (depsite some possible nth leveling?)
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