www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

gutshot?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

pgil

11-06-2006, 03:50 PM Post subject: gutshot?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,103

I think that I played this fairly well, but would like some feedback on it. especially the lines of thought used during the hand. I think I calculated my implied odds correctly here, but would appreciate someone checking that for me as well.

I have been playing pretty tight, but have recently had a run in with the villain in this hand. I called him pf, then called his obvious c-bet on a K-high board, we both checked the turn, and then he called my 1/2 pot river bet with 4th pair, when I had 5th pair. not well played really by me, but it sets up the hand in question.

villain has been raising a little too much for my liking, and has shown a willingness to min raise on flush draws (has done it twice in about 45 minutes).

~110 BB effective stacks, 50NL.

I don't have the hh, but the relevant info is 99% correct.

Villain is button, raises to 1.75 (standard thanks to the 'bet pot' button)
I call from the BB w/

- pot = 3.75

flop

I lead for 2.50 thinking he hasn't hit this, and he minraises me, I call. He could have the flush draw, nothing, or a 2pr/set type of hand. I figure he most likely has a flush draw, and I am not that far behind (perhaps even ahead) if he does, but I don't want to build a huge pot w/ an ace high and a gutshot. The J should raise more to chase me out, and I plan on checking any turn to him to see how much he bets.

pot = 13.75

turn blank

I check, he bets 4, I call based on implied odds. I figure a flush draw should check behind as I have shown to him that I am willing to call him down with crap, and could possibly be setting up a C-R. I put him on a set/2pr, with the set being most likely. This gives me 4 outs, the 3 non-diamond ones being the big ones, with him thinking I may be chasing the flush or could have some sort of 1 pair hand.

pot = 21.75

river

bingo

I check, he bets 7, I raise to 21, and he pushes over. He shows his 22 and I take the pot.

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

gabe

11-06-2006, 04:08 PM

#2 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: trying to live

Posts: 7,964

gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

if someone is raising alot of hands, that means they are more likely to have nothing when you are in a pot with them. that means you dont have implied odds. you got lucky they happened to have a set.

pgil

11-06-2006, 04:43 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,103

you don't think he has a hand after the "please don't fold" turn bet?

If not, please correct my line of thinking throughout the hand, I would like to learn where I have gone astray in my analysis.

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

Ravageur

11-06-2006, 04:49 PM

#4 (permalink)

Official Montreal SwampRat
Full House

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Montreal, Canada

Posts: 1,242

Yeah what gabe said. You and villain both played this bad. Check/call the flop if you think you're ahead and lead the turn if you think you still have the best hand I guess.

Also I don't really like defending my blind with these type of hands as they seem to only get you in trouble than good.

Family Cruise IMO

benny999

11-06-2006, 04:51 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,567

I was always a little bit fuzzy on implied odds math, but I don't think you had very high implied odds with only an 8%ish chance with one card left to make ur hand.

Can someone tell me if this is a way to calculate the amount to win on the river to make calling on the turn profitable?

take $4 and divide by .08 to get 50.
Then subtract the 21.75 turn pot from 50, and you get about $28 that villain needs to put in on the river.

benny999

11-06-2006, 04:54 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,567

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgil

you don't think he has a hand after the "please don't fold" turn bet?

overall it's probably a sucker-u-in bet, but u can't be totally sure....it could also be a "where am I at? please raise so I know to fold" bet. or even a ridiculous semi bluff.

ThelVlaster

11-06-2006, 05:20 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 222

Quote:

Originally Posted by benny999

Heres my makeshift calculations:
Stack sizes start at $55 - 1.75 - 5 = $48.25 before the turn action.
The pot is $25.75 with his $4 bet, leaving him with 44.25 behind.

If he has a set/2pr and you hit a non diamond 3 (On the turn chance to hit: 3/46=0.0652),
and you win his whole stack + pot =$70 (I don't know if the $4 you put in on the turn should be added here or not, I left it out.)
Expected value = 0.0652 * 70 = +$4.57

If you hit a diamond 3 (1/46 =0.0217), lets assume you win the pot, plus a 1/2 pot sized bet on the river. The pot would be $29.75 + called river bet of 15 =$44.75
Expected value = 0.0217 * 44.75 = +$0.97

If you brick on the river you only lose $4.

Total EV = 4.57 + .97 - 4 =+$1.54

But there are a lot of assumptions there. You can see how your EV would fall drastically if he only stacks off 85% of the time, or he folds the 3d river, etc.

I really like your analysis to his holdings, during the hand - the question being at the time of the hand, did you factor all that in, or just hope that this move was +ev.

gabe

11-06-2006, 06:49 PM

#8 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: trying to live

Posts: 7,964

fwiw, i like the flop bet

johnny_fish

11-06-2006, 07:09 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee

Posts: 2,186

Would you c/f or bluff a

river?

pgil

11-07-2006, 04:51 AM

#10 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,103

i would c/f a diamond river about 85-90% of the time here as I don't think he's letting go of his hand often enough to warrant a bet any more than that.

"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce

Latest Poker News
Bbickes	06-02-2012, 08:10 PM Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
In an effort to perhaps keep players from moving to the new Revolution Network setup by the former Lock Poker, Merge Network has taken drastic steps to respond to their player base's requests to impro ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 05:01 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Short-Handed NL Hold'em

gutshot?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...