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going along with all the folding posts...2 pr

  
 
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benny999
Old 03-19-2007, 02:45 AM     Post subject: going along with all the folding posts...2 pr #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 27/7, and has been real quiet for the 100 or so hands i've played here.
i've been fairly aggressive pre flop, ~28/20, but pretty much solid/tag post flop. i haven't played many big pots and have folded quite a few times in small pots.


on the flop he paused a little while, then the rest of his actions were instant. i'm pretty sure he thinks i have a good hand on the turn.

Hand #40567819-6146 at Hutchinson (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 18/Mar/07 22:29:22

GIONNIBGOOD is at seat 0 with $191.85.
River_Rez2687 is at seat 2 with $265.45.
johnyj4444 is at seat 3 with $68.35.
Joe LaPaire is at seat 4 with $217.85.
Hero is at seat 5 with $335.70.
The button is at seat 5.

GIONNIBGOOD posts the small blind of $1.
River_Rez2687 posts the big blind of $2.

GIONNIBGOOD: -- --
River_Rez2687: -- --
johnyj4444: -- --
Joe LaPaire: -- --
Hero:

Pre-flop:

johnyj4444 folds. Joe LaPaire folds. Hero
raises to $7. GIONNIBGOOD calls. River_Rez2687
calls.

Flop (board: 5s 7c 3c): POT=$21

GIONNIBGOOD checks. River_Rez2687 bets $5.
Hero raises to $24. GIONNIBGOOD folds.
River_Rez2687 calls.

Turn (board: :Ks: POT=$69

River_Rez2687 checks. Hero bets $48.
River_Rez2687 goes all-in for $234.45. Hero
folds.

i've been running real bad lately, but had a bad feeling. is this weak with the draws out?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 03-19-2007, 04:01 AM #2 (permalink)  
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benny999
Old 03-19-2007, 04:49 AM #3 (permalink)  
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ya thanks. after thinking about it again, i definitely like how i played. he prob wouldn't to do this without at least 2pr much if ever.
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nutsinho
Old 03-19-2007, 02:03 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I call this one. You don't think he has Kxcc?
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griffey24
Old 03-19-2007, 02:35 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I call this one. You don't think he has Kxcc?
This is what I was thinking too, a K with two clubs. The weak bet on the flop, and then calling your big raise seems to be a flush draw to me.

I feel like his push on the turn is tryin to get you out, as opposed to milking you, which he would probably wanna do with a turned top two pair.
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gabe
Old 03-19-2007, 04:08 PM #6 (permalink)  
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dont think id fold AA here
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Ash256
Old 03-19-2007, 04:43 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I call this one. You don't think he has Kxcc?
I was thinking 7sXs (prolly As)
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zenbitz
Old 03-19-2007, 07:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I don't think he has a draw becaause of the probe-call on the the flop, then c/r turn.
Whatever he has, he really likes it. Worst is AcKc (although you think he would play flop differently). Maybe AA (since he's not a 3-bettor). But I think sets are a large part of his range.
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griffey24
Old 03-19-2007, 08:18 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
I don't think he has a draw becaause of the probe-call on the the flop, then c/r turn.
Whatever he has, he really likes it. Worst is AcKc (although you think he would play flop differently). Maybe AA (since he's not a 3-bettor). But I think sets are a large part of his range.
Someone tell me if my logic is flawed here: but I often don't fear sets that much on boards where I flop two pair (since its unlikely that they'll have a set with any of the cards I have two pair with), so that leaves one set that i'm really worried about (ie: in this case, a set of 3's)

I don't think villain's bet on the flop was a "raise me bet", as he probably would have come back over when he got raised. It was probably just some donk lead.

I think we see a set of 3's or a K high flush draw pretty often here.
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Genitruc
Old 03-19-2007, 09:25 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 NH unless he's a tool he has 333 here almost always.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 03-19-2007, 11:18 PM #11 (permalink)  
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shit...now im re-rethinking the fold. running bad could effect my thinking, and KcXc makes about as much sense as 33. figured he'd take some more time on the turn with Kxcc but that's not definite.

kinda surprised nobody mentioned the nuts yet though (64s).

fwiw here's a pokerstove calculation:

Board: 7c 5c 3s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.818% 36.82% 00.00% 162 0.00 { 7h5d }
Hand 1: 63.182% 63.18% 00.00% 278 0.00 { 33, As7s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, 6c4c, 6s4s }

meh, even with the semibluffs it looks close. i still like the fold. i think he expected me to raise the flop and was too passive to not have a big hand most of the time.

btw griffey- i don't thinke ur logic is flawed, but still when someone who seems passive puts their stack in the chances have to go up of 777 or 555.
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