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Numbr2intheWorld
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10-12-2007, 12:28 AM
Post subject: Given that this villain is aggro and possibly good...
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Is this ok? He can only rep KQ? AK seems unlikely... but possible.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
BB ($209.95)
Hero ($363.95)
MP ($191)
CO ($200)
Button ($205.30)
SB ($200)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q , A .
Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, Button calls $7, 2 folds.
Flop: ($17) 4 , Q , A (2 players)
Hero bets $11, Button calls $11.
Turn: ($39) J (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button calls $30.
River: ($99) T (2 players)
Hero bets $69, Button raises to $157.3 (All-In), Hero calls $88.30.
Final Pot: $413.60
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
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This is a call if he's spewy and bad, not if you think he might be good. This is such a terrible spot for him to bluff unless you guys have history and he thinks you can make big laydowns. Your range is mostly made up of two pairs/sets/straights, with a couple of bluffs thrown in. Such a bad range to bluff against. I think he has AK/KQ/KJ/KT 95% of the time here.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
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The interesting question here is bet/fold or check/fold imo.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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Well i really think it's b/f given that i think he has a K very little on the river.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
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Reagan's Kid
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lol this could be a very sick value shove with 4-4.
You can't say for sure that he couldn't be holding A-K preflop, or that he would play K-Q like this.
It's tough to give him credit for those hands, but what else could he be holding? I wouldn't assume he planned to bluff the runner runner 1 card straight draw.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools
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zook
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Well, c/f'ing probably saves you money b/c it's so hard to imagine him betting without a K. I guess he might turn Ax into a bluff. And you're not getting value from much by betting... AJ is all I can think of.
What do you put him on after he calls the turn? And after he pushes the river?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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nh.
44 isnt a sick vshove, its a pretty easy one. Unless opp is a nit.
I just can't put him on a king, there's just no way, if he shows up with a king he's bad unless this is a rare AK hand.
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will641
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if he is aggro, wouldn't he have 3 bet pre, and if not raised the flop with AK?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
44 isnt a sick vshove, its a pretty easy one. Unless opp is a nit.
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A good player raises the the flop or turn with 44 almost 100% of the time.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I just can't put him on a king, there's just no way, if he shows up with a king he's bad unless this is a rare AK hand.
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I think AK is unlikely, but I don't see why KQ/KJ/KTs can't get here. All are flop floatworthy and all improve on the turn (albeit slightly for KQ/KJ).
Quote:
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Originally Posted by will641
if he is aggro, wouldn't he have 3 bet pre, and if not raised the flop with AK?
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I don't think AK raises the flop here since it's way ahead or way behind on a dry board.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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I just meant that if anyone has 44 and get to the river the way they did its a pretty easy vbet.
I think KJ, KT are pretty bad calls pre, KQ could play it this way but certainly you'll see people fold the turn.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
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Massimo & ISF: Care to put villain on a range after turn and again after river?
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pocketfours
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Interesting hand, it's clear that villain has played his hand in a nonstandard way, whatever he has. I think a call is reasonable because the odds are good and a king just seems so unlikely. My favorite line on this river would still be c/f.
If he is any good, he simply can not call the turn here without at least AT (ruling out KQ and KJ). The only draw possible is a gutshot and nobody solid would call with that.
I would rule out KT because of flop call, this isn't a good flop to float against UTG range. AK also seems unlikely but not completely impossible.
What else is here that beats us: 44/JJ. I don't think these can be completely ruled out, although a river vshove is thin.
We also need to think what he can have that we beat. We can't assume that he called two streets on this board just so he can bluff river. He could have: QJ/AJ/AT/A4s. Would he really turn these into a bluff on the river? I don't like it because we can't offer villain bad odds and because a king is not really in our range at all.
I think he had one of these hands: AK/44/JJ/QJ/AJ/AT/A4s. On this river, if hero raised, I would shove AK/44/JJ, but fold QJ/AJ/AT/A4s. If hero checked, I would bet AK/44/JJ, but check the rest. This is why I would c/f river.
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Deanglow
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After staring at this HH for 10 minutes, I can only put him a worse two pair. He raises 44 by the turn at least. KQ makes some sense, but it just seems unlikely. AQ raises somewhere. I think this is AJ or A10
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
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Yea but if he has AJ/AT he's turning his hand into a bluff in a spot where bluffing is pretty bad IMO.
Also, you're getting like 4:1 on your river call, I think that in itself makes it much closer.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Massimo & ISF: Care to put villain on a range after turn and again after river?
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Well, on the river his range is polarized to a bluff or a K. On the turn his range is Ax (including A4), and some K hands depending on on how tight/floaty he is.
Quote:
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I guess he might turn Ax into a bluff
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This is what i thought were his bluffing hands.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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I don't doubt that he is dumb and is raising AT/AJ.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
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would opp absolutely 100% 3bet QQ/AA preflop here. I agree with the bluff or K range, but what about big pairs preflop also into his range or is he too aggro to have not 3 bet the button with those?
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Numbr2intheWorld
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I'm pretty sure he almost always 3-bets the button with QQ-AA, AK.
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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seems like a good player is very capable of turning a 2 pr type hand into a bluff since it s a good spot for you to rep AK...
so I like the call
if that doesn't make sense... you fold your bluffs and there s a chance you fold all better non-K made hands (in an aggro's mind)
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
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what about just betting 30, maybe full pot on the river? i think 69 induces bluffs more.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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results?
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gabe
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lots of wrong stuff said in this thread
i looked through the first couple posts and didnt see anything said about villian, which is so important here
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
i looked through the first couple posts and didnt see anything said about villian, which is so important here
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plz elaborate.
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gabe
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Moderator
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how can i elaborate on that? what else is there to it? info on villian is really important .
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
lots of wrong stuff said in this thread
i looked through the first couple posts and didnt see anything said about villian, which is so important here
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Obviously it's important! I'll say everything i knew at the time but some of this i didn't take into consideration while deciding.
- He was probably a reg cause he was multitabling and i had about 300 hands on him. I don't know how many tables he was at, it could've been as low as 4 or as many as 8. I'm guessing towards the low since Full Tilt is harder to multitable than stars.
- He ran about 20/15, his AF was around 3.
- I had no written notes on him, but he seemed like a good player because he was aggro and didn't have any retarded plays to his record so far.
- People have seen me bet/fold for with that little behind before, i'm not sure if he has or not.
- He took a little time before he shoved.
- he seemed like a tight 3-bettor but it's possible i could have missed some of them.
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gabe
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i think you guys are overestimating the number of hands villian would push riv with, either for value or bluff.
i like check calling riv. i dont think there are enough hands we can get value out of vs a good player (hes not calling with QJ, and probably not AT, he usually will raise anything that beats AT before the river)
c/c lets u still pick off those bluffs you guys think he is so capable of
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
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yea i think check/call is a lot better
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Renton
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Straight Flush
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long thread im just going to respond to op
I don't understand the point of betting the river here. It just seems logically unsound.
I like a c/c or a c/f, leaning definitely toward a c/c vs this player.
Also, he can have a king.
I guess once you bet you must call, but i think the bet in the first place is completely valueless. He doesn't fold a better hand and he doesn't call a worse one (MAYYYYBE AJ or something). He only shoves, and then you have to deal with that.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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I understand what you guys are saying, Although c/c is kind of annoying in this spot since he's not bluffing that much (but i don't think he's betting very much either because of what i stated earlier).
He had AK, btw.
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gabe
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if he never bluffs when checked to on river why the hell are we bet calling riv
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
if he never bluffs when checked to on river why the hell are we bet calling riv
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sometimes there are rivers I won't bet when checked to, but I'll raise the same rivers when opp makes a bet that seems strange
edit : I wasn't villain... 
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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gabe
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yea i do the same thing, but if we have some read that he won't bluff river much when checked to then it makes no sense to hope he is gonna raise a bet
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
yea i do the same thing, but if we have some read that he won't bluff river much when checked to then it makes no sense to hope he is gonna raise a bet
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I said i don't think he's bluffing much, but i don't think he's betting much either (since i think a K is a very small part of his range up to the river). So, for example, if he bets 5% of his range on the river, and bluffs 1% of it, that means he's bluffing 20% of the time he bets. That's what i mean by i don't think he's bluffing much but i don't think he bets much either.
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gabe
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ok given that, what are hands hes calling you with?
if you have good history then he'll call with QJ and AT, but if only played a little bit with him he probably folds QJ
the more i think about it, his calling range and his betting range are really small, and since betting puts us in a tough spot i like checking
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
ok given that, what are hands hes calling you with?
if you have good history then he'll call with QJ and AT, but if only played a little bit with him he probably folds QJ
the more i think about it, his calling range and his betting range are really small, and since betting puts us in a tough spot i like checking
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Ok yeah i understand, and agree.
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