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arkana
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11-24-2005, 10:25 AM
Post subject: Giddy up
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Game has recently become 3-handed, villain and hero both have about $200. The villain is a average player, reasonably tight preflop but nothing special post flop. Blinds are $1/$2.
Hero gets dealt J 5 on the button and raises to $6, villain (BB) reraises to $15 (prob a big pair). Hero calls (admittedly a mistake but I wanted to establish an image that would allow me to take control of the table, 3-handed is a tough cookie).
Flop: J T 2
Villain bets $30 into the $31 pot, whats your line?
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Pingviini
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 1,090
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Do you think he would be able to fold an overpair here given your image? You have to think about folding equity before raising. Obviously you arent going to fold. If he has KK with K of clubs you are only 44.2-55.8 dog. I am not sure how big your folding equity should be to justify pushing considering the stacks. Calculating the folding equity here would be extremely need if anyone is able to do that. This is something I have been thinking about lately and I would really apreciate if anyone is able to make any nice calculations here..
I am not sure what would be the best line here, if you just call he will be afraid if you hit the third club or a J. Perhaps AI against opponents at this level would be the best play. This is an interesting hand, especially because this is so common!
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"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Board: Js Tc 2c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.7980 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { Jc5c }
Hand 2: 50.2020 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { AhAd }
Board: Js Tc 2c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.2424 % [ 00.44 00.00 ] { Jc5c }
Hand 2: 55.7576 % [ 00.56 00.00 ] { AdAc }
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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im looking at this and thinking i have a godzillion outs and a chance to stack the opp. im all in here. You called the reraise ( i like the thinking behind it) now you have the flop thats desired. Do we really want to fold this here even though we are probably behind already?
Could we also put opp on AK here that missed (as well as a big PP) as pingu says this situation occrs a lot especially 3 handed so i guess i look for stacks here,
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Yes I wasn't going to fold, I called the raise to hit this flop. My question is what is the best way to continue with this hand. Pushing seems like such a big overbet which will lose value from some of the hands I beat but if I smoothcall then villain might not pay me off if the flush card comes. Problem with just raising is that if he just calls and I miss the turn then my chances of winning drops significantly and I don't know if i can justify calling a big bet on the turn. Pushing will do wonders for the image though...
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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I pushed he called me with red aces and I made the flush. Im looking for a line that will improve my folding equity.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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look, it's incredibly obvious that he has a top pair with a strong kicker or an over pair here. Short handed you just won't be able to get him to fold, period. You should just call, you have a good 12-14 outs. It will be obvious what your hand is but there really is no way to conceal it in this specific situation.
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SmackinYaUp
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: B N L
Posts: 1,725
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Id raise his flop bet the usual amount for me - 3x. Make it $90 and call a push. If you just call his flop bet, you're gonna miss enough on the turn that you're gonna give up a lot before the river. If you hit a club on the turn, it scares him. If you hit a 5 or a J on the turn and raise it up then, its gonna scare him. Raise it up, give him a chance to fold, and if you're gonna play a big pot, at least give yourself a chance to win his entire stack if he calls.
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