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Get inspired.

  
 
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aislephive
Old 06-13-2006, 01:59 AM     Post subject: Get inspired. #1 (permalink)  
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aislephive
First 16k hands at 200nl, talk about a roller coaster. The straight plunge at around 3500 hands was cool, having lost AA to KK all in PF / Set over set / Top two vs bottom set all in the matter of one minute at various tables. I like the 6 buyin upswing in the last 1k hands though, that's what should inspire most of you who have ran bad at a limit that it can happen to anybody and to just keep playing and you'll eventually fight through it.

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aislephive
Old 06-13-2006, 04:13 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Haha, this thread went well.

Well, at least I don't look like a douchebag ..

..........
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CavemanWins
Old 06-13-2006, 04:14 AM #3 (permalink)  

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Looking at this leads me to believe it is hard to tell if you are an overall winning player untill maybe 50K+ or maybe even 100K hands.
The variance seems to be so high!

Anyone know any better?
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johnny_fish
Old 06-13-2006, 05:00 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Standard deviation per 100 hands is about 40 ptBB. Assuming a longterm winrate of 3 ptBB/100, you will be between -500 ptBB and +1100 ptBB with 95% probability after 10K hands.

After 30K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [-500,2300]

After 50K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [-300, 3300]

After 100K hands the 95% confidence interval is: [500, 5500]

Assuming 5 ptBB/100, these ranges are respectively
[-300, 1300]
[100, 2900]
[700, 4300]
[2500, 7500]
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Robert
Old 06-13-2006, 12:13 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Always nice to see a fellow ftr'er doing good! Good job dude!
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