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gamble it up for 220bb?

  
 
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benny999
Old 02-24-2007, 05:29 AM     Post subject: gamble it up for 220bb? #1 (permalink)  
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this happened soon after winning my biggest ever pot with the nuts vs 2nd nuts (different villain).

i have been pretty active in small pots especially in LP, 28/20ish, but showing big hands in every large pot.
SB is a pretty good tag, 19/16, and has reraised me with a SC before. he cbet then shut down on a dry Q high board. he hasn't been reraising a lot this session though.

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1./$2.
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:


UTG: $159.90
CO: $193
Hero: $926.35
SB: $434.60
BB: $228.45

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 5 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, SB raises to $34, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 4 3 2 ($70, 2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero raises to $144

what do you think? would you ever just fold pre flop, or on the flop?
I thought calling would suck since I wouldn't do that with a big hand, and didn't feel like folding, so I raised about the same size as the recent pot i had the nut str8, thinking I'd be comitted if he pushed.
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Genitruc
Old 02-24-2007, 08:31 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 My feeling is that he can call you down much lighter overpair hands on this board than a dry one.

I can see him making a crying call with JJ/QQ here whereas they'd be pretty basic folds on different boards (since you can obv be playing XcYc aggressively here).

Also, since you only have 10 outs vs an overpair I tend to draw a line somewhere. It's one thing to get it in aggressively flipping for stacks when you have fold equity. It's another to look at getting it in as a 20% underdog for 220 bb's (this is a significant hit you're taking in EV).

However, it's not clear that villain only has QQ-AA type hands. You may be leading here vs big cards. Or you may be getting great implied odds to call.

Here's why I'd call :

-if villain has big cards, he's only 22% to win the hand. It sucks when we flat-call and he hits a KQ type hand on the turn, but oh well.

-We are obviously betting any ace or any 6. Sometimes the ace hitting will kill our action (vs other overpairs) but the odd time he has AA and we spike the 2 outer, it'll be very very hard for him to put us on a 5 and laydown top set.

We're also very likely getting paid off by other overpairs when the 6 falls. A 5 is a sick card, but we'll be in position to deal with it when/if it falls.

Despite all this, I probably play the hand the same way you do in the heat of the moment. NH. Btw you're not folding to a push I hope...
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 02-25-2007, 02:47 AM #3 (permalink)  
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for some reason I didn't really consider the hands he'd fold...just that he would fold SOME times and I'd have 25-40% to win other times. but your right, he's mostly folding hands I already beat, like SCs or AK.

the thing that bugs me is if I call, it's easy to put me on like 55, medium overpairs, or maybe bare clubs. and if the turn is a 6 or ace, and I put in a big bet, he probably folds. I guess that's debatable though, so calling sounds better than I thought at first. still not totally sure I like it better than folding, but now sounds better than raising vs this guy.

btw- ya i called his push, which was almost an insta shove, and made me tank since I didn't have odd against his AA. he held up - doh. kind of sad but funny that I won a ~$900 pot, then gave it right back a few hands later. not next time though...
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Genitruc
Old 02-25-2007, 03:16 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 meh no big deal live and learn

and you're right that calling makes your hand very transparent.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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gabe
Old 02-25-2007, 05:11 AM #5 (permalink)  
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you playd it fine
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Renton
Old 02-26-2007, 05:11 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 i did this for 200bb one time when i was almost sure that he would call.

I was stuck like 1k at 2/4 that day and i was on semi-tilt, so i took at 40/60 for 800 dollars to try to come unstuck. Obviously i lost the hand gg.
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Genitruc
Old 02-26-2007, 05:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i did this for 200bb one time when i was almost sure that he would call.

I was stuck like 1k at 2/4 that day and i was on semi-tilt, so i took at 40/60 for 800 dollars to try to come unstuck. Obviously i lost the hand gg.
blackjack next time?
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Renton
Old 02-26-2007, 05:21 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i did this for 200bb one time when i was almost sure that he would call.

I was stuck like 1k at 2/4 that day and i was on semi-tilt, so i took at 40/60 for 800 dollars to try to come unstuck. Obviously i lost the hand gg.
blackjack next time?
it was really weird. we were 200bb deep together, and he made an oversized raise pre with what looked like a big hand (i put him on AA a good% of the time), then i flopped a 654 board with my 77. He overbet the pot again on the flop and i thought SURELY, IF I RAISE HERE, CONSIDERING HOW OBVIOUS IT IS THAT HE HAS A BIG HAND, HE MIGHT ACTUALLY FOLD!?!?!!!1

So obviously i commit/called.
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Genitruc
Old 02-26-2007, 08:56 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 hey Rent I'll post it here just in case you don't check sauce123's 101010 hand again where I mentioned this :

any chance of a linky to the hand where you flopped JJJ on KJ10 (2 diamond I think) board OOP multiway? There was a discussion about leading vs c/r and gabe made what I thought was an awesome post. Not sure if you remember this or not but if you do, any chance of linky-linky?

thx

edit : sry for hijack benny
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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benny999
Old 02-26-2007, 09:11 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I don't remember the hand you mentioned but it reminds me of a 2+2 post - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=5354245

one of the most helpful parts imo..

Quote:
Dead Money:

This again is VERY important and a point overlooked regularly. You want to take the line that traps the most dead money in the pot. E.g. Let’s say that UTG raises, and gets 3 callers, you call in the SB with a suited connector, BB fold. You flop an OESFD. If you lead out, and the PFR raises, then the 3 callers inbetween will all fold. If, however, you check, the PFR bets, then hopefully a few of the players inbetween will call with a draw/weak TP or whatever, and when you then C/R, you trap all of their money in the pot.

The opposite of this is also true. I.e. you call the button’s raise in the SB and 3 others also call it, then it’s best to lead out, as you trap the most dead money in the pot that way.
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Genitruc
Old 02-26-2007, 09:33 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 benny I think the problem with this line is that if you're only doing this w monsters then you're ending the action right there vs thinking players

edit : forget what I said, OP specifically mentions doing this w big draws rather than monsters, notably against donks.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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