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Folding bottom set on river: Nitty laydown?

  
 
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Clar17y
Old 09-03-2008, 08:52 PM     Post subject: Folding bottom set on river: Nitty laydown? #1 (permalink)  
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My 50 NL game at the moment apparently has alot to be desired (speaking from the results i've been getting). Could these hero laydowns be why?

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

BB: $41.24
UTG: $57.61
Hero (CO): $86.46
BTN: $23.82
SB: $48

Pre-Flop: 2 2 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, BTN folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) 5 T 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $3

Turn: ($14.50) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $8

River: ($34.50) K (2 Players)
SB bets $31 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $34.50 Pot
SB mucked and WON $63.78 (+$46.78 NET)

Raise more each street? FWIW he insta called every time. Villain running 27/18 but haven't seen him show down anything at this table yet.

Clar
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bigspenda73
Old 09-03-2008, 09:00 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 your turn raise size could stand to be a lot bigger

river is meh
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badgers
Old 09-03-2008, 09:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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work out what odds you gave opp when you raised the flop.
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Clar17y
Old 09-03-2008, 09:11 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
work out what odds you gave opp when you raised the flop.
Villain needs to call $3 into a pot of $11.50, so giving him almost 4:1 on his money which i'd probably call on just a flush draw.
Fair enough i gave him odds to chase, the title wasn't "stupid noob chasers" but what's the right amount to bet so he comes along but at the right price?

Turn he's calling $8 into a pot of $26.50 which is 30% of pot. He hits his flush ~ 18% of time (9 outs x 2) or more specifically 19.6% of the time so his call on the turn is a bad one?

Clar
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bigspenda73
Old 09-03-2008, 09:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clar17y
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
work out what odds you gave opp when you raised the flop.
Villain needs to call $3 into a pot of $11.50, so giving him almost 4:1 on his money which i'd probably call on just a flush draw.
Fair enough i gave him odds to chase, the title wasn't "stupid noob chasers" but what's the right amount to bet so he comes along but at the right price?

Turn he's calling $8 into a pot of $26.50 which is 30% of pot. He hits his flush ~ 18% of time (9 outs x 2) or more specifically 19.6% of the time so his call on the turn is a bad one?

Clar
Bet-sizing is a key fundamental in improving your poker play, the reason the river is so tough for you here is because of your decisions on earlier streets.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-03-2008, 09:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 also, research "implied odds"
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Clar17y
Old 09-03-2008, 09:40 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
also, research "implied odds"
Yeah I know implied odds take into account how much you can get paid if you hit your draw. My friend rightly pointed out to me that it seems like I want villain to call too often so I don't bet enough to give them bad odds to call.

What would be a better bet size on the flop? A raise to $10?

This basically means we're playing for stacks asap right?

Clar
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bigspenda73
Old 09-03-2008, 10:03 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 $7.50 on the flop seems good

You're thinking correctly in that you want to deny their immediate odds to draw to a flush, however, you also need to think about:

1. Their implied odds, are you going to pay off a bet if the flush card hits, if so you'd like to charge them more on earlier streets.

2. The chances of getting paid on the river when the flush misses. Villain will probably check/fold the river, therefore we want to gain more value out of bigger bets on the flop and turn before he misses.

3. Gaining value from non-flush draw pair hands. Perhaps he will call the flop and turn and river with a hand like ATo but he might fold the turn or river if a 3rd spade falls. Therefore we want to be amounts to get value out of these types of hands before scare cards fall.

BTW, I call the river, it's a great card for him to bluff-shove and we only have to be right 1/3rd of the time. Plus, it's more fun than hitting the fold button.
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dalecooper
Old 09-03-2008, 10:31 PM #9 (permalink)  
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As played I'm fine with folding, but I would raise more on the flop and turn and make that a non-decision.
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Deanglow
Old 09-03-2008, 10:55 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 just bet more, as played fold on the river
 
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Alexos
Old 09-03-2008, 11:16 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 fold river is fine, BUT.. 8$ on flop, even more on turn, and you should already be all in before river
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