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Fnord
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01-13-2006, 01:32 PM
Post subject: Fnord moves to 100 6 max: Top set on draw board vs TAgg
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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UTG looks pretty TAggy and my table image really sucks.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
BB ($153.90)
UTG ($138.30)
MP ($90.85)
Fnord ($101.35)
Button ($36)
SB ($114.20)
Preflop: Fnord is CO with T , T .
UTG raises to $4, MP calls $4, Fnord calls $4, 3 folds.
Flop: ($13.50) T , 3, 9 (3 players)
UTG bets $11, MP folds, Fnord raises to $97.35...
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fade177
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 144
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The only hand you are getting called with is a flopped flush which I don't think he'd bet out on, it looks like he's protecting his hand. However, as of now you have 7 outs to make the full house, 10 by the river, and your top set could easily be favorite over his 4 card flush. I think the tough thing about a reraise here is what amount. My instincts say pump it up to $45 here, but that only leaves you with $50 for a turn bet? And if he calls both, you're behind based on your read. I think your move is all you got, and that you have the best, if he has a lower set, I don't think he would have bet out here, but then you have set over set with only 1 out to worry about, I think your in a good situation here.
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We are the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fade177
The only hand you are getting called with is a flopped flush.
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Against a random, you're so wrong. Not sure about this guy...
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RHCNNN
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 152
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ummmm... I don't get it. Are you not happy with the way you played this hand?
As far as I can see (which admittedly may not be very far) the TAG might have an overpair with one club, so he'd have 11 outs against you (2 for set +9 for flush) if he decides to call. But And even if he has a flush already you have 7 outs right now for the board to pair or hit quads, and the turn will most likely bring you another 3 outs for a boat.
So if he calls with a flush you still have a decent amount of outs, and if he calls with an overpair with a club you are a small favorite right? I think that more frequently this guy would have an overpair with a club rather than flopping a flush too...
For me this is an automatic push... what makes it post worthy? what am i missing?
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by fade177
The only hand you are getting called with is a flopped flush.
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Against a random, you're so wrong. Not sure about this guy... |
Wouldn't be suprised if an over pair called. Wouldn't be suprised if A10, K10 called. Wouldn't be suprised if Ac or Kc calls here.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by RHCNNN
if he calls with an overpair with a club you are a small favorite right?
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He's ~2.5:1 favorite against an overpair with a club.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Fnord, I really respect your playing but this play makes no sense to me. Explain.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Fnord, I really respect your playing but this play makes no sense to me. Explain.
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what do you think the best play is?
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thirteen
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 235
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I like this line.
Hero is tight and likely holds an overpair, possibly with a club, so he's drawing also. Pushing here gives you some fold equity against JJ-KK with a club. Plus you still have outs even if villain has/makes a flush.
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Robert
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Kokkedal, Denmark
Posts: 1,109
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looks to me like you are representing a flush draw, so a lot of thinking players will call with TP or an overpair putting you on a draw. And for the players that dont think - they just call with TP or better 
Am I right, or just plain wrong?
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twosevoff
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Flush
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 526
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thirteen
I like this line.
Hero is tight and likely holds an overpair, possibly with a club, so he's drawing also. Pushing here gives you some fold equity against JJ-KK with a club. Plus you still have outs even if villain has/makes a flush.
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I don't think want folding equity here against those overpair/club hands--you'd rather have him call the rest of his stack off drawing at 11 outs and not getting correct odds. Though there is something to be said for taking down the pot without a showdown when there's a decent amount of money in the pot and your opponent has a pretty good chance of sucking out on you.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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The "fake all-in semi-bluff" also looks like a legitimate scared bet or raise with a vulnerable hand that beats an overpair. For that reason a tight player may still be able to get away from his hand facing a play like this.
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