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Originally Posted by Fnord
Originally Posted by minSim
About hand 2: What exactly was you turn plan when you called flop?
My plan for the hand was to not fold the flop unless it came something just terrible. His turn bet looked pretty FoS so I pulled the trigger. After pulling the trigger on the turn I realized that I was committed to shove a lot of river cards.
After pondering this hand for a while, I think my biggest mistake in the hand was not paying more attention to what a 2nd barrel from this particular player on this particular board meant.
Here are my thoughts about postflop, with a remark that I’m just a 50NL player:
On the flop you’re ahead of his range, so c/f-ing isn’t really option, this deep, reasonable villain, etc.
Check/call flop
A c/c to me seems to be the best option only if you are (reasonably) sure villain isn’t barrelling with air on non A/K turns often. (him barrelling A/K often and not others obviously is great for you c/c line). With this knowledge you can c/f turns you missed.
As quite a lot of players do this, this isn’t such a terrible line imo.
The turn hit your range pretty good. I assume a villain on this level knows this and therefore my estimation of his turn barrel is like T9+, possibly with some combo draws in there, but very little air.
(please comment on this range if it’s way off)
Therefor your turn c/r, although it seems strong, hasn’t got much FE in a vacuum. Combined with like perfect river push or c/f play against his range it might be +EV. (I haven’t done the math, but in general you always seem to have FE on the river against certain parts of his range, depending on the river card)
With the above arguments, I think a c/c flop, c/f this turn line is very reasonable.
Check/raise flop
First and foremost with a c/r you’ll be folding out a large part of villains range that you’re ahead of and a certain part that gives you implied odds. (the part that remains probably has some reverse implied odds in it).
Also with this being COvsblinds your flop c/r probably contains quite some air/draws….so imo it more or less establishes that:
- you’ll get 3bet/pushed of your hand by villains best hands
- you’ll get 3bet/pushed of your hand by some of villains draws
- villain calls with draws or TP type of hands
If we assume that, then c/ring and not continuing on turns makes no sense in this situation with this hand. So you probably will continue on any non-heart turn with a big bet to fold out certain parts of villains flop calling range… being mostly draws that do not get enough implied odds, or the weaker made hands.
With this line you seem to have to make a lot of assumptions. (although this could also mean I’m just not being good enough to know for sure, maybe you are). And it seems to throw away a lot of the value AK still has on the flop. C/ring with air kind of seems better.
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