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flush on paired board 100nl

  
 
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Da GOAT
Old 01-30-2009, 09:55 AM     Post subject: flush on paired board 100nl #1 (permalink)  
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This probably isnt a tough one to answer.

Opp is about 35/24 over a fair amount of hands. his AF is about 40% but no alarming aggression on any particular street. Opp isnt a good player.

In hindsight im thinking that simply leading river is way better than c/r'ing but Id like to hear opinions. My c/r size is also too big but i added on some $ since i figure he is a bit of a stationy bad player.

On river is this an easy fold or call?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG elkam ($123.60)
UTG+1 BaxterRS ($165.70)
CO Barney_Gamble5 ($100.00)
BTN polarni ($100.00)
SB Hero ($104.40)
BB Gsus4 ($125.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB
elkam calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, elkam calls $3

Flop: ($9, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, elkam calls $6

Turn: ($21, 2 players)
Hero checks, elkam checks

River: ($21, 2 players)
Hero checks, elkam bets $12, Hero raises to $42, elkam raises to $72, $30 to Hero ($52.40)?
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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Silly String
Old 01-30-2009, 01:31 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Based on pot odds I think you have to call if you think he'll slow play/shove trips Ks here evar. I don't think most villains will wake up on a flushy river w/ trip K's though.
Couple things come to mind here even though I think we're beat:
*Be sticky in big pots
*You only have to be right 1 of 4.5 times.

I would prefer b/c or b/f depending upon his raise size. I think your CR line on the river of a paired board is questionable because you invite this uncomfortable situation.

Finally, given his line(before river) and the likelyhood of a river bluff being the only additional money villain will put in I think c/c might even be in order.
Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
 
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bode
Old 01-30-2009, 01:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 you cant really fold now getting 4.5:1. I bet river for value here almost always, and i don't really like a c/r because i doubt hes calling you w/ a J/T high flush. He could think trip K's is good if he's that bad, but idk how many kings he's opening limping with those stats. I also bet turn here because he's going to be peeling a decent amount of flops on a board like this.
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Da GOAT
Old 01-30-2009, 01:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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sure we are getting 4.5:1 odds, i still have to be right in that they are good odds though. Pretty much nobody will raise a cr with a K here like ever.
Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
 
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CasalRoyal
Old 01-30-2009, 02:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board. -- I´d doubt a pocket KK by Elkam, or he´d be more agressive - nevertheless, I´d be afraid he´d be carying an Ace of spades, and here carefully playing ´coz afraid of a possible KK on your hand. But it´s most likely you have the best hand...

Let´s know the result.
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BigPapi
Old 01-30-2009, 03:17 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Any single king hand would have to bet turn I think... his river line is so strong, but yeah if he can show up here with just a king or lower flush (any worse hand, even bluff) 1 in 5 times it should be a call.

if you feel noone raises a c/r with a worse hand ever, then it's a fold i'm also leaning on this thought considering the action...
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jimmy44
Old 01-30-2009, 03:58 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 I feel that a raise to $32 on the river is way better due to stack sizes.
If he bet/3bet-shove river, then out pot odds would be: 3-1 and we can fold. Mainly because he didn't bet the turn, which he would a fair amount with a K.
As played, getting 4.5-1 odds vs a 38/25 player, I call here.
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bode
Old 01-30-2009, 03:59 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CasalRoyal
Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board.
wat? we only have like the eleventeenth nuts here, plenty of hands are beating us.
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drmcboy
Old 01-30-2009, 04:15 PM #9 (permalink)  
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ATOTHEC101
Old 01-30-2009, 05:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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lol brazilaments, and I prefer just betting the river strongly myself. you have to call as played.
"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
 
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CasalRoyal
Old 01-30-2009, 06:08 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bode
Quote:
Originally Posted by CasalRoyal
Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board.
wat? we only have like the eleventeenth nuts here, plenty of hands are beating us.
Yep! I´m ashamed! Sorry for that! And thanx!
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