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flush over flush

  
 
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Pingviini
Old 02-17-2006, 10:35 AM     Post subject: flush over flush #1 (permalink)  
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I was about 80% sure he had the flush. Should I fold on turn, just call down or get the guy AI?

GIBBUS23 is at seat 1 with 434.20
McCall is at seat 2 with 767.00
PingZen is at seat 3 with 1025.70
bolad is at seat 4 with 171.64
Kraul67 is at seat 5 with 0.00

McCall posts the large blind 6.00
GIBBUS23 posts the small blind 3.00

GIBBUS23: --, --
McCall: --, --
PingZen: 8s, 10s
bolad: --, --

Pre-flop:

PingZen: Raise 18.00
bolad: Fold
GIBBUS23: Call 18.00
McCall: Fold

Flop (Board: Qh, Ks, 6s):

GIBBUS23: Check
PingZen: Bet 36.00
GIBBUS23: Call 36.00

Turn (Board: Qh, Ks, 6s, 3s):

GIBBUS23: Check
PingZen: Bet 54.00
GIBBUS23: Raise 108.00 (this screams like a flush, could be something else strong too)
PingZen: Call 108.00

River (Board: Qh, Ks, 6s, 3s, 10h):

GIBBUS23: Bet 114.00 (he has like ~180 or so left)
PingZen: ??
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gabe
Old 02-17-2006, 12:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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you definitely call.

you lose to Ax,Qx,Jx, and beat so many more!
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arkana
Old 02-17-2006, 12:20 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Very tough to fold it unless you know he wouldn't smooth call with 2/pair or set on a board that contains a possible flush draw. Flush over flush in a pot where only 2 people saw the flop is close to impossible to get away from IMO, however in a multiway pot you can find a fold. I would just call the river though.
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aislephive
Old 02-20-2006, 10:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I would push here. My reasoning is that he has committed a large portion of his stack already into the pot, and he will have to call off the rest most likely if he has something like two pair or a set since it's hard for him to put you on a flush draw given how the hand played out. Calling is OK, but I think you lose value long term by not raising the river. I would be very interested in the results.
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krimson
Old 02-20-2006, 11:28 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
you definitely call.

you lose to Ax,Qx,Jx, and beat so many fewer!
FYP.
9 remaining spades give 36 possible flushes for villain. 6 remaining low spades give 15 possible lower flushes. Thus if we assume that villain has a flush hero is more likely to lose than to win. If we take into account that villain is more likely to call pre-flop with big cards than low cards hero's chances of beating a flush are reduced further.
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gabe
Old 02-20-2006, 01:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
you definitely call.

you lose to Ax,Qx,Jx, and beat so many fewer!
FYP.
9 remaining spades give 36 possible flushes for villain. 6 remaining low spades give 15 possible lower flushes. Thus if we assume that villain has a flush hero is more likely to lose than to win.
pot odds are awesome, gotta call
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Miffed22001
Old 02-20-2006, 06:15 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
you definitely call.

you lose to Ax,Qx,Jx, and beat so many fewer!
FYP.
9 remaining spades give 36 possible flushes for villain. 6 remaining low spades give 15 possible lower flushes. Thus if we assume that villain has a flush hero is more likely to lose than to win.
pot odds are awesome, gotta call
yup
i cant see why going bust to a higher flush is so bad here.
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Pingviini
Old 02-20-2006, 07:16 PM #8 (permalink)  
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well I pushed, he had a J high flush.
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sunfunbunch
Old 02-20-2006, 07:32 PM #9 (permalink)  
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If you are going to only raise x3 BB with T8s then I don't see why one should bet almost pot on this board--> I guess you REALLY want a fold, eh?

I wouldn't bet this flop so strong.
Remember that the player that called you is the SB. "USUALLY" this means that he somewhat likes his hand.

On the flop, the SB either has something or he has nothing.
I think he easily folds to $26 as he does toa $36 flop bet. SB either has something he likes or completely missed.

He CALLS your large pot bet from the SB [warning sign!!!]. I think that if he had AKo, etc.. he would check RAISE, not check call. At this moment I'm not feeling to good about this hand. I rather the flop has been TXX by this point.

The way that THIS hand was played, I check the turn and call a river, or bet the river if he checks then.

The way the hand played out: he CHECK RAISED the turn .. I'm done with the hand. I don't care if I have odds to call or not. I think I know I'm beat by this moment--> this is why I check this turn card.
------ I may seem like I play passive, but in short handed games I raise so many hands that I HATE getting committed to hands when I'm not quite sure about my hand. There are so many more oportunities to exploit players, that I do NOT like losing my stack in a hand like this.
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krimson
Old 02-20-2006, 07:45 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
you definitely call.

you lose to Ax,Qx,Jx, and beat so many fewer!
FYP.
9 remaining spades give 36 possible flushes for villain. 6 remaining low spades give 15 possible lower flushes. Thus if we assume that villain has a flush hero is more likely to lose than to win.
pot odds are awesome, gotta call
Well I didn't change that part of your post, did I?
I interpreted your post as saying that hero beats more flushes than he loses to (which is incorrect), but I guess you did not.
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dsaxton
Old 02-20-2006, 07:49 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Call him down if you feel like gambling. This is such a marginal situation, you probably have about a 50% chance of winning.
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gabe
Old 02-20-2006, 08:03 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Call him down if you feel like gambling. This is such a marginal situation, you probably have about a 50% chance of winning.
and he only need to win about 25% to break even

i think
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dsaxton
Old 02-20-2006, 08:06 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Call him down if you feel like gambling. This is such a marginal situation, you probably have about a 50% chance of winning.
and he only need to win about 25% to break even

i think
On the turn he has to call $100 into a $300 pot, with the expectation of having to call an additional $200 on the river.

Now that I think about it more, in situations that are as marginal as this one, I think the correct play is to fold if your chances of winning are such that you basically expect to break even by calling down. The reason is that folding is a break even play which involves no volatility, while calling down is a break even play that involves high volatility. If two decisions each have the same expectation, and one involves higher volatility, you're better off selecting the lower volatility option, which in this case is folding.
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gabe
Old 02-20-2006, 10:58 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Now that I think about it more, in situations that are as marginal as this one, I think the correct play is to fold if your chances of winning are such that you basically expect to break even by calling down.
your expectation is + if calling down. if he has a lower flush only 1/3 of the time its a good call on river.
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