Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

Short-Handed NL Hold'em

  > 

Flush Odds correct ?

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Toasty
Old 04-27-2004, 10:47 AM     Post subject: Flush Odds correct ? #1 (permalink)  
Toasty's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
Toasty
Am i right in thinking that sutied cards will only flop a flush just under 3% of the time ?

Heres what i done, I calculated the odds of not hitting a card on the first two flop cards.
no of outs non outs
hit miss 0.78 11 39/50
40% 60%(.78*.78) 0.78 11 38/49

I assumed that you would only ever hit 1 card on the first two as the odds should be close with any 2/3 flop cards.

Third flop card (to make our FD)

hit miss outs non outs
21% 79% 10 38/48

Odds of getting a flush draw =(40/100)*(21/100)

Which gives us 8.4% chance of flopping a FD.

catching on turn / river we all know is 35% with a FD so this brings us down to (8.4*0.35)=2.8%

A 2.8% chance fo catching a flush from a starting hand, this seems very low to me but believeable from my exp with these cards. I have already tried to endevour to release Kxs and A6-A9 suited as they dont make straights. This is for my Rock Solid play, tight tables I loosen up.

Can someone please correct / confirm this for me as with those %s the odds you would need to make it a +ev seem really bad, a $1 call with A6s would need to win around $70 to make it break even (STRICTLY FROM WINNING VIA FLUSH) of course there's pairs /2 pairs /trips / straights and bluffs that you can get with this hand.


What y'all think ?
Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
 
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
crazyeddie
Old 04-27-2004, 02:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
crazyeddie's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: VA
Posts: 97
crazyeddie
Toasty, according to Mike Caro's Odd Page,

If you begin suited and stay through
seven cards, three more (But not
four or five more!) of your suit
will turn up:

5.77% (16.3:1)

Keep in mind that this is for 3 but NOT four or five of your suit, so the odds are actually higher.
Reply With Quote
crazyeddie
Old 04-27-2004, 02:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
crazyeddie's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: VA
Posts: 97
crazyeddie
By the way, in reviewing your math, you have excluded the possibility of

A) Flopping a complete flush
B) Flopping only 1 flush card but making your backdoor flush
C) Flopping a complete flush AND getting more flush cards to come (in case you have Ace only)


My suspicion is that the true number is somewhere around 7-8% (including 4 and 5-card flush boards)
Reply With Quote
crazyeddie
Old 04-27-2004, 04:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
crazyeddie's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: VA
Posts: 97
crazyeddie
Found the answer for ya'

According to this site....

"The odds of taking two suited cards to the river to make a flush are 15:1 (6.4%) "
Reply With Quote
Toasty
Old 04-28-2004, 08:23 AM #5 (permalink)  
Toasty's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
Toasty
thx for the speedy reply and with the odds kxs looks like a real poor hand...
Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
 
Reply With Quote
Toasty
Old 04-29-2004, 10:18 AM #6 (permalink)  
Toasty's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
Toasty
ok sussed it

Flush on the flop - 0.8% chance
Flush Draw on the flop - 10.9% chance
Back Door Flush on the flop - 49.6% chance

Backdoor flush making a flush on the turn/river.

4.2% Chance or a 23:1 dog of making your flush.
Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
 
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
Bbickes Old 06-02-2012, 08:10 PM    Merge Network 6.0 Looks to Retain Current Player Base
In an effort to perhaps keep players from moving to the new Revolution Network setup by the former Lock Poker, Merge Network has taken drastic steps to respond to their player base's requests to impro ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 08:21 AM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.