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strangebird

04-22-2004, 06:57 PM Post subject: Flush draw

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: Sizzler

Posts: 553

Ok, this is the third time I have been criticized for making a flush on the river.

About an hour ago I was playing a NL $100 table at PP. This is the scenario:

I hold Ac Kc on the button I raise to 5 and 4 people call. Flop comes 2c 10c Jh everyone checks. I bet 7, everyone calls. Turn comes 6d. BB bets 4. I call everyone else folds. River comes 8c. BB goes all-in(only had $12 left). I call and win with flush. He had 10 J. Slow playing the top 2 killed him. If he raised me on the flop or turn I would have folded.

He argued that I am a fool for trying to make the flush. I feel if i can cheaply see another card, why not. I really dont know much about pot odds and all the math, but it seemed to me I made the right call.

What do you think?

Some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants won't help.
-- Calvin and Hobbes

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crazyeddie

04-22-2004, 07:25 PM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: VA

Posts: 97

Strangebird.

When you get a guy like this, just smile and nod. Maybe shrug your shoulders and say "got lucky, I guess."

You were a preflop favorite: 65/35
A little under even money on the flop: 42/58
You were a 3:1 dog on the turn: 25/75

You only had to call $4 to win $52 + whatever you could squeeze on the river if you hit, though. It was a good call.

If he wants to criticize you for calling a $4 bet on the turn, maybe he should think about his $5 call pre-flop.

Xianti

04-22-2004, 07:31 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Your call was absolutely correct. He was the fool for not betting, then not re-raising you on the flop with top two pairs when there were two clubs on the board.

Without knowing how many limped in pre-flop, I'm estimating that there was about $75 in the pot on the turn. BB only bet $4. $4 on $75 is only about 5%. He basically gave you a free card. Without even knowing the exact pot odds percentage, that's still an easy call.

Here's the actual figure:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html

You had a 19.6% chance of hitting your flush on the river. So you could have correctly called any bet up to 19.6% of the pot on the turn.

Again, he only bet 5% of the pot. He's the fool.

fishstick

04-22-2004, 08:15 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

he called a $5 pre-flop raise with TJ? deserves what he got!

geez, how much money are you making today??? 8)

strangebird

04-22-2004, 08:55 PM

#5 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: Sizzler

Posts: 553

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishstick

he called a $5 pre-flop raise with TJ? deserves what he got!

geez, how much money are you making today??? 8)

I'm up about $600 so far.

Some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants won't help.
-- Calvin and Hobbes

fishstick

04-22-2004, 08:58 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2004

Location: Carlsbad, CA

Posts: 1,405

could i interest you in the Fishstick United Poker College fund?

remember, a mind is a terrible thing to waste.

good job!

crazyeddie

04-22-2004, 09:11 PM

#7 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: VA

Posts: 97

Quote:

You had a 19.6% chance of hitting your flush on the river. So you could have correctly called any bet up to 19.6% of the pot on the turn.

Actually, Xianti, he has more outs and can therefore call more. It's 9 clubs minus the Jack of Clubs (which would give him the full house) plus the 3 other queens that can give you a straight= 11 outs.

/Detail Nazi

strangebird

04-22-2004, 09:32 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: Sizzler

Posts: 553

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishstick

could i interest you in the Fishstick United Poker College fund?

remember, a mind is a terrible thing to waste.

good job!

Thanks. I am on fire today!!!

I just got this in the mail.

CONGRATULATIONS! You won the following tournament and prize at PartyPoker.com:

Tournament Number : 3332026
Played on : 22-apr-2004 17:29 EST
On Table : Table 11239
Game Type : Texas Holdem
Total Prize pool: $500
Your Position : 1
You won : $250

Some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants won't help.
-- Calvin and Hobbes

04-22-2004, 09:37 PM

#9 (permalink)

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{This post has been removed}

Xianti

04-22-2004, 09:37 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyeddie

True that! Thanks for the correction, Eddie. Always appreciated.

strangebird

04-23-2004, 05:34 AM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: Sizzler

Posts: 553

Thanks everyone.

I should really do some more reading on odds.

Good thing it's all lister here on this site.

Some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants won't help.
-- Calvin and Hobbes

heatman

04-26-2004, 09:46 PM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2004

Posts: 312

I use this thumbrule to figure my odds of making my hand. I've never seen it posted, so if its redundant, I apologize in advance.

You have about 2X% chance of hitting where X is the number of outs you have. If there are two cards to come, the thumbrule is 4X%.

For example, for a flush draw with 9 outs you've got about an 18% chance of catching on the turn, and about 36% if you are staying to the end. Then I convert to odds by rounding which is about 4.5:1 (82%/18% is 4.55) and 1.7:1, respectively.

This isn't quite right, but it's quick, easy to remember and gives you the ability to figure your odds for multiple draws that end up with weird outs. In the above (11 outs), the thumbrule suggests you have a 22% chance of hitting, or about 3.5:1.

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