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I Like Pie
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08-08-2007, 03:46 PM
Post subject: Flopped three 8s facing a shove
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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No read on Villain, he is 30/22/2 over 57 hands
Quote:
GAME #620694542: Texas Hold'em NL $1.00/$2.00 2007-08-07 21:00:42
Table "TURBO" Montgomery
Seat 1: TapMyToe ($217.80 in chips)
Seat 3: carlos199252 ($170.55 in chips)
Seat 5: faaruk ($145.79 in chips) DEALER
Seat 6: Turntable ($195.00 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($264.80 in chips)
Seat 10: sparrowroad ($145.53 in chips)
Turntable: Post SB $1.00
Hero: Post BB $2.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8h7h]
sparrowroad: Raise $4.00, TapMyToe: Call $4.00, carlos199252: Call $4.00, 2 folds, Hero: Call $2.00
*** FLOP *** [9s 8d 8s]
Hero: Bet $12.00, sparrowroad: Raise $24.00, TapMyToe: Call $24.00, carlos199252: Fold, Hero: Raise $40.00, sparrowroad: Fold, TapMyToe: Raise $189.80, Hero:...
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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fold in the end, im not sure exactly what the bets sizes where but did you raise 40+24=64 which is a tiny bet??
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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that HH format is little weird,
ur calling 150 into 470 pot right ? = 32%
his range:
A8s,QhJh,JhTh,T8s,8h7h,6h5h (i think he may do it with TT too puting u on a draw that changes the equity in ur favour even more)
ur equity : 50%
why play those connectors if trips are not good enough... well i know not to face shove but still 
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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The iPoker HHs are a garbage I agree. I tried to clean up the HH too since I can't find a converter.
I'll make it easier:
Flop ($17)
Hero bets $12, sparrowroad raises to $24, TapMyToe calls $24, 1 fold, Hero raises to $52, 1 fold, TapMyToe raises to $213.80, Hero...
I have $208.80 left
I just usually think when someone smooth calls a raise on the flop then pushes over a re-raise he's got a monster.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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yes but whats a monster here. if he pushes a boat then he is idiot.
i think he is pushing a strong draw while he has odds so he dont have to make decision on turn if he miss (he may not get correct odds at all on turn in fact).
but by ur minraise he may actually put u on a draw and protect his 8. so a monster here would be 8 with better kicker.
we should include 6h8h into his range if we put T8 there aswell.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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+notet on he smooth calling: actually i'd say he is on BIG draw and wanted big 4 way pot.... but as he saw 2 other ppl folding to ur minraise he pushed his draw... class dismissed
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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On i-poker this is a call. He has to have a big pair AKs or overs/fd/straight draw combos to do this here. Id never fold this.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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So we have to call $208.80 to win $301.80?
That means we need 41% equity to make a call profitable.
If we assume his range is 99,A8s,89s, but then say that he'll play AA like this "sometimes" (17% of the time) and TT like this "sometimes (33% of the time) we almost get there.
Board: 8s 8c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.201% 36.89% 01.31% 2922 103.50 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 61.799% 60.49% 01.31% 4791 103.50 { AcAh, TcTh, TcTs, 99, A8s, 98s }
Assuming that he'll make this play with the straight-flush draw "sometimes" i.e. just JT gets us pretty much what we need
Board: 8s 8c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.741% 39.56% 01.18% 3525 105.00 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 59.259% 58.08% 01.18% 5175 105.00 { AcAh, TcTh, TcTs, 99, A8s, JsTs, 98s }
So Id say it goes by how donkish he seems. If youve seen him show down something slightly retarded Id call it (putting AA/maybe KK, TT + some semibluffs) in his range. If you havnt seen him show down much Id say he has a monster alot more than a big pair or TT/semibluff and Id fold it. It a fold more often than a call against most players but its reasonably close against this guy.
edit: forgot AKs which pushes it more to a call.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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id insta call here against most donks but ur biggest mistake is the tiny re raise on the flop which should allow him to play perfectly
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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ipoker is a huge joke call.
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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I wanted to raise $40 more on the $24 not the $12. The raise button on iPoker fucks me up. I incorrectly assumed that hitting raise $40 I would actually raise $40.
Anyways, I should have made it $75, regardless, I looked thought my PT and I see anything donkish from this guy. 26/20 over 194 hands and he showed down 9 hands, all fairly standard. I did notice he cold called raises with 77 and 88. He's running good over those hands too, 94.79 BB/100 hands.
I folded, I'd bet he had A8 or better.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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i like pie:
then u should rethink why u play SC's if u fold trips.
u think u always trap with them or command the hand against draws ?
pelion: ur bet sizes,pot are wrong and ur ranges dont make any sense
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crazycrazy
pelion: ur bet sizes,pot are wrong and ur ranges dont make any sense
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He changed the bet sizes in his second post since the first one screwed up. Are you saying im still wrong cos I got a little confused when I was trying to work out the sizing.
As for my ranges not making sense Im not saying this is the range he has. Im pointing out how close to breakeven it is if his range is basically every concievable hand that beats us and only 1 hand that we beat.
I dont think he has T8 here. He stats are loose but they arent crazy loose. I also left out 78 because we have it but I should have left it in since we have equity in the split pot.
My point is that since there are only three 9s left, and only one 8 left in the deck, he doesnt have to raise with worse hands here that often since there are so many more combinations of worse hands that he could have.
My stoved hands were to show how few worse hands he has to play like this for us to call. Hes is likely going to be looser than the range I gave him, and since the range I gave him was just about a call we can probably call.
edit: btw the AA (17% of the time) and TT (33%) of the time arent just arbitrary numbers. They are the numbers that allow me to put hands into pokerstove as a sometimes part of a range. You can combine AA/KK/QQ into the AA since they are essentially the same hand here and I dont think saying he plays each of those hands in a retarded way 5% of the time is unlikely given his stats.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crazycrazy
i like pie:
then u should rethink why u play SC's if u fold trips.
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So we should never fold trips if we play SCs? 
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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I've never played on iPoker, but I think normally villain's line = monster.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ash256
Quote:
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Originally Posted by crazycrazy
i like pie:
then u should rethink why u play SC's if u fold trips.
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So we should never fold trips if we play SCs? |
not on that flop when nothing bigger is obviously completed.
if u reason out he has 8 with better kicker thne u can reason out he has hihger flush when u have flush with SC too, i mean, u can always find better nuts in most spots. puting 30% more in pot or whatever is just too good to fold here.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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pelion: ok all i meant was u should not put boat there as nuts is rarely pushed on flop also over pairs there, i agree it is possible but its very unlikely. also i meant u should put big draw hands there more. look at my range up, but in anycase, our trips equity is definately good.
I think T8s is actually quite possible here villain was the third man in a minraised pot already... its like ideal hand in that spot.
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holdin2
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 279
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[quote="Pelion"]
If we assume his range is 99,A8s,89s, but then say that he'll play AA like this "sometimes" (17% of the time) and TT like this "sometimes (33% of the time) we almost get there.
Board: 8s 8c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.201% 36.89% 01.31% 2922 103.50 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 61.799% 60.49% 01.31% 4791 103.50 { AcAh, TcTh, TcTs, 99, A8s, 98s }
quote]
I'm curious as to why you have two specific versions of pockets 10s in there, only one of the AA combinations yet have all pockets 99s, A8suiteds and 98suiteds). Just want to know if its a different approach to figuring equity that I'm not doing normally?
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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I could only imagine some mega-donk playing AA like that and I highly doubt this guy is that bad.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
I could only imagine some mega-donk playing AA like that and I highly doubt this guy is that bad.
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you need to table selct better because theyre out there on that site at these stakes.
And pokerroom is worse.
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
you need to table selct better because theyre out there on that site at these stakes.
And PokerRoom is worse. |
I know they are out there, there is a reason I play at iPoker and Party. I see guys playing 81/6 and 60/40 all the time, I just can't say I've even seen AA played that way.
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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are u saying that ipoker/ongame are softer than party ? how much hands u played on all three to say that ? maybe i give it a look
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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[quote="holdin2"]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
If we assume his range is 99,A8s,89s, but then say that he'll play AA like this "sometimes" (17% of the time) and TT like this "sometimes (33% of the time) we almost get there.
Board: 8s 8c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.201% 36.89% 01.31% 2922 103.50 { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 61.799% 60.49% 01.31% 4791 103.50 { AcAh, TcTh, TcTs, 99, A8s, 98s }
quote]
I'm curious as to why you have two specific versions of pockets 10s in there, only one of the AA combinations yet have all pockets 99s, A8suiteds and 98suiteds). Just want to know if its a different approach to figuring equity that I'm not doing normally?
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He usually raises AA preflop so he doesnt have it as often here.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
I just usually think when someone smooth calls a raise on the flop then pushes over a re-raise he's got a monster.
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Why doesn't anyone else think this? I have yet to see someone call and 4bet on the same street without a huge hand.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
He usually raises AA preflop so he doesnt have it as often here.
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Sorry if I missed it, but how do we know this?
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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TapMyToe
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1
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I remember this hand! Missplayed it thou, my line is too strong. But my stats on hero is very nittish over a good sized sample, so i really tought he was going with the hand. I had 98o.
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Anosmic
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 999
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by I Like Pie
The iPoker HHs are a garbage I agree. I tried to clean up the HH too since I can't find a converter. |
True. I ended up writing my own PC-based one. Feel free to try it:
http://www.gonesoft.com/FTRConvSetup.msi
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gingerwizard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,815
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
I've never played on iPoker, but I think normally villain's line = monster. |
ipoker and pokerroom villains line is nearly always an overpair.
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This is not my signature. I just write this at the bottom of every post.
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TapMyToe
I remember this hand! Missplayed it thou, my line is too strong. But my stats on hero is very nittish over a good sized sample, so i really tought he was going with the hand. I had 98o.
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Nice!
It's good to know I made a good fold and saved some money.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
He usually raises AA preflop so he doesnt have it as often here.
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Sorry if I missed it, but how do we know this? |
We know it because we dont. Most people raise AA preflop so if say 75% of people raise AA preflop then we have to assume an unknown raises AA preflop 75% of the time.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gingerwizard
Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
I've never played on iPoker-Network.php] iPoker[/url], but I think normally villain's line = monster. |
iPoker and PokerRoom villains line is nearly always an overpair. |
that's just really hard to believe. i used to play on pokerroom too before the legislation. i have yet to see a line like villain's that isn't the nuts or near-nuts.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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