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Jager
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02-14-2008, 06:20 PM
Post subject: Flopped flush facing big action
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 754
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No real reads, I just sat down. Am I ever good here? Or can I ever get away?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP ($206.70)
Hero ($292.60)
SB ($298.10)
BB ($223)
UTG ($366.80)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5 , 3.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $7, BB calls $6.
Flop: ($24) 8, K, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $290.1, BB calls $215 (All-In), Hero calls ??
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think call. It's close though because of equity disadvantage when your ahead compared to when you're not.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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id fold pretty fast
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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yourfather
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: In your fridge
Posts: 603
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Looks like hes protecting a set, no?
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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i don t think it s a bad fold
but I bet you were ahead here!
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I would call pretty fast.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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i think its a fold. when your ahead your not ahead that much and when you are beat you are fucked.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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lol how is this ever a call? You have little invested and one of them has a flush at least like 70% of the time.
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Deuce Blue
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Sportsbook $5.50 & $11 S&G's
Posts: 295
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I'm cussing and folding. One of the two left has the nuts.
Now if you had the 5-6d I might have to call on principal alone. 
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noble007
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: London
Posts: 531
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close, depenends on your table selection.
If I went to table with a high vpip and avg pot, I would expect there to be a couple of donks & so I would call here with 100bb starting stack.
SB is unlikely to be shoving made flush imo (power to him if he is, 1 on 1 I'm calling 100% without reads), so its only bb to worry about and if he's a donk (at my level anyway) Ad, AK, are in his range as well as set.
I think the ranges are something like this at my level
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
800,961 games 0.031 secs 25,837,451 games/sec
Board: Kd 8d 4d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.881% 43.88% 00.00% 351473 0.00 { 5d3d }
Hand 1: 19.025% 18.97% 00.05% 151952 432.00 { KK+, 88, 44, AKs, 7d6d, AKo }
Hand 2: 37.093% 37.04% 00.05% 296672 432.00 { KK+, 88, 44, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 7d6d, AKo, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs }
Occassionaly SB might be shoving baby flush but 345d are already
accounted for so only 67d could be in his range generally I think.
But most responses are fold, so I could be way off here. (Alot more weak players at 25nl obv, maybe at 200Nl people shove raise big flushes more often)
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Currently thinking of a new quote/signature... Some sort of prayer to the Poker gods for enlightment etc..
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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1st shove doesnt mean shit but u have to assume bb has a set or flush and he cant have kk so there are only 6 combos of sets where youre 70% and a ton of flush combos where youre <1% so foooooold
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Fold seems marginally better. You are sometimes good, but not often enough since you are dead when you are behind. Even if you are ahead, but one has a higher diamond and the other has a set, then you only have about 45% equity.
So you might have 1% equity 50% of the time and around 50% equity 50% of the time.
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minSim
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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If BB never has anything worse than AdK, it's a fold.
If he can have AdQx AdJd it CAN be +EV, depending on how many made flushes are in his range. But BB is still there as well so a fold is very likely your best option.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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hmm interesting. i was thinkin to snap but apparently thats wrong. What're the worst hands we call with? 88, 97dd?
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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is it wrong thinking that we would rather call with a 88? because there is basically the same chance we are ahead as 3d5d, and have good chance to suck out if were behind, whereas with the worst flush, we are either ahead (but good chance to get sucked out) or basically drawn dead.
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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pretty easy fold i think...change your hand to 9dTd and its closer
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