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zook
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08-01-2007, 07:53 PM
Post subject: Flopped 3rd nuts, facing AI
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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UTG is a bad maniac (like 50/20-ish), UTG+1 has standard tagg stats, no history, no specific reads.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $2/$4 - 6 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $736
UTG+1: $398
CO: $768
Hero: $400
SB: $408
BB: $390
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 7  6
UTG raises to $12, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.
Flop: T  8 9  ($50, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $16, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $90, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises all-in $386, Hero...
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Man this sux. If I'm you am going to tilt after I see the results either way.
I call. 2:1 on your money before UTGs decision and you could be up against TP+Draw, set, lots of 2 pair combos. I am not surprised to see UTG+1 flip up JQ though. He played it like you might play the nuts on a dry board, so I wouldn't fault you for a fold. Heads up I instacall, but 3 ways makes this tough.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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well, really only QJ has you beat, but it's possible its a set. The hand is too strong to fold IMO considering only 1 realistic hand has you beat. besides, obviously we have runner runner outs
i doubt hes pushing the nuts like that, but i think a set might here
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,166
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I can't see getting away from this unless we have a great read that UTG+1 is trapping with the nuts. Maniac UTG probably has a set or T9 here.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Silly String
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: KC, MO
Posts: 1,434
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Remember people do stupid things in big pots.
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Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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yawn marginal i think calling is a little better than folding
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I Like Pie
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Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 399
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Does someone with TAG stats usually call a raise in 2nd position with QJ or J7?
I don't think I'm folding this.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I'm trying to figure out what hand a decent player calls a tiny c-bet with on a drawy board, then pushes over a big raise. Is a tagg with a set or two pair really giving cheap cards to two players with this board?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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These numbers look right? Color me surprised.
28,710 games 0.040 secs 717,750 games/sec
Board: Ts 9h 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.135% 32.09% 01.04% 9213 300.00 { 7d6d }
Hand 1: 66.865% 65.82% 01.04% 18897 300.00 { TT-88, QJs, T9s, 98s, QJo
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I'm also surprised I'm that far behind that range. If I had put him on all those hands I would have insta-called (when in fact it's barely a call). But I'm wondering if a good player (and I don't have a read that this guy is one) ever plays 2 pair or a set like this. The flat call of a $16 bet is so weird with those hands...
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Knytestorme
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 562
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Could UTG+1 be running a squeeze here with something like JJ?
He coldcalls the pfr, then cold calls a small bet on the flop but then you raise and UTG just cold-calls and he comes over the top to rep the nuts knowing you can only really call with one hand (and since UTG only called your raise rather than re-raised he can't have a really strong hand) and he still has outs if you call?
Of course UTG is also an issue still as even if you call here, he still has to act and has taken a really weird line.....it's all very strange.
I doubt UTG has air but most likely has something like AK/AQ (with AQ most likely for the overcards + gutshot) while QJs is a real possibility for UTG+1 I guess if he is also running stats on UTG and has him as a maniac.
I'd felt it here, but I have a hard time getting away from hands like this so YMMV 
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