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first semi-tough 200nl decision.

  
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-08-2007, 02:42 PM     Post subject: first semi-tough 200nl decision. #1 (permalink)  
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 Opp was unknown, but i noted he had lost a few showdowns where considering what i thought he held he was spew betting OR calling too much.
Preflop is a discussion point for sure. I think it could be a fold regardless. When the turn hit, i just thought he was FOS, dont ask me why it was just a spidey-sense thing. Im pretty much putting him on AK therefore should i c/r all in on turn (is he going to call anyway) or do i just c/c and let him stick it all in on any river?
If my reads good, then hes put $130 in with ace high anyway right so he cant profit?
Sorta think i put myself in an ugly spot preflop, so if everyone wants to post that then cool.

Texas Hold'em $2-$4 NL (real money), hand #164,494,944
Table Macao, 8 Apr 2007 2:22 PM ET

Seat 1: balsner ($183.05 in chips)
Seat 2: jelczyk ($40.85 in chips)
Seat 4: pkgus77 ($70.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Jenskr00 ($215.85 in chips)
Seat 10: loloBUSTO [ QS,AS ] ($284.45 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Jenskr00 posts blind ($1), loloBUSTO posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
balsner calls $2, jelczyk folds, pkgus77 folds, Jenskr00 folds, loloBUSTO bets $6, balsner bets $22, loloBUSTO calls $16.

FLOP [board cards 2H,QC,10S ]
loloBUSTO checks, balsner bets $33, loloBUSTO calls $33.

TURN [board cards 2H,QC,10S,6D ]
loloBUSTO checks, balsner bets $55, loloBUSTO ???
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 04-08-2007, 03:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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did you just reraise a limp-reraise UTG with AQs? i fold preflop after that reraise.

i CR the flop and go from there.

as played, i think putting him all in on the turn is a lot better than pushing any river, if you want to get all in. at least if he does have AK instead of AA/KK/QQ, then he might be able to fold his gutshot.
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 04-08-2007, 04:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I agree, fold pf so it doesn't get this yucky.
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sauce123
Old 04-08-2007, 06:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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fold PF

As played I C/C every street most likely and C/F a king

I fully expect you to get crushed by AA KK here more than enough to make PF flop and turn bad, but that being said once I flop TPTK in a 3bet pot I basically dont fold barring extraordinary circumstances.
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-08-2007, 07:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 don't call pre unless you've either a. seen him do this before or b. you've been raising him everytime he limped.
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c-luvin
Old 04-08-2007, 08:39 PM #6 (permalink)  
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he has AA KK and his turn bet says i wanna get it all in on the river, hes not double barelling here this small with anything you beat imo
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Miffed22001
Old 04-08-2007, 09:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c-luvin
he has AA KK and his turn bet says i wanna get it all in on the river, hes not double barelling here this small with anything you beat imo
95% of the time i agree whole heartedly. On this occasion i dont. His range here is 99+ and AK for sure. But he was a spew-monkey, and for whatever magical reason im 80% sure he has AK on the turn.
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c-luvin
Old 04-08-2007, 09:05 PM #8 (permalink)  
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trust your read then and push and profit
the bet just looks really scary because it looks like he wants a call and he left himself like a half pot bet for river that you have to call with tp type hands
what happened?
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Miffed22001
Old 04-08-2007, 09:52 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c-luvin
trust your read then and push and profit
the bet just looks really scary because it looks like he wants a call and he left himself like a half pot bet for river that you have to call with tp type hands
what happened?
I went with my read and let him spew $130 in with ace high, for the magical jack to hit the river. Pot odds suck.
I read good he sucks out better i guess.
If i push the turn he leaves $70 on the table, which is a waste. So trusting my read i call the turn hoping hes going to put the rest in on the river regardless, unless he sucks out a 7 outer ofc...

Texas Hold'em $2-$4 NL (real money), hand #164,494,944
Table Macao, 8 Apr 2007 2:22 PM ET

Seat 1: balsner ($183.05 in chips)
Seat 2: jelczyk ($40.85 in chips)
Seat 4: pkgus77 ($70.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Jenskr00 ($215.85 in chips)
Seat 10: loloBUSTO [ QS,AS ] ($284.45 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Jenskr00 posts blind ($1), loloBUSTO posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
balsner calls $2, jelczyk folds, pkgus77 folds, Jenskr00 folds, loloBUSTO bets $6, balsner bets $22, loloBUSTO calls $16.

FLOP [board cards 2H,QC,10S ]
loloBUSTO checks, balsner bets $33, loloBUSTO calls $33.

TURN [board cards 2H,QC,10S,6D ]
loloBUSTO checks, balsner bets $55, loloBUSTO calls $55.

RIVER [board cards 2H,QC,10S,6D,JD ]
loloBUSTO checks, balsner bets $71.05 and is all-in, loloBUSTO calls $71.05.

SHOWDOWN
balsner shows [ AH,KS ]
loloBUSTO shows [ QS,AS ]
balsner wins $364.10.

SUMMARY
Dealer: pkgus77
Pot: $367.10, (including rake: $3)
balsner bets $183.05, collects $364.10, net $181.05
jelczyk loses $0
pkgus77 loses $0
Jenskr00 loses $1
loloBUSTO loses $183.05
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 04-08-2007, 10:17 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 I think this is one of those times where you say i know he has AK, he showed up with AK so your like wow must've been really sure but in reality this is AA/KK a lot.
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Genitruc
Old 04-08-2007, 10:42 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point
 If you're continuing here then I think check-call is best.

Also check any river card.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-08-2007, 11:45 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I think this is one of those times where you say i know he has AK, he showed up with AK so your like wow must've been really sure but in reality this is AA/KK a lot.
agreed. i wouldnt normally even take AQ to a flop here
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 04-08-2007, 11:50 PM #13 (permalink)  
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i don't see how you can call that river bet if you're sure the guy has AK.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 04-09-2007, 12:01 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
i don't see how you can call that river bet if you're sure the guy has AK.
Yea, you're reasoning has been AK the entire hand. Why call the river now? What hand do you expect him to show up with now?
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-09-2007, 12:23 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 If you think he has AK and if you are going to follow through with your read, push the turn because he's calling and making a mistake.
Check out my blog http://suited-aces.com
 
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mcatdog
Old 04-09-2007, 02:13 AM #16 (permalink)  
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IF you're going to play pre-flop and flop like this, you really need to check-push the turn. He still has 7 outs and there's not enough money left in his stack for it to be worth giving him a chance to spew the rest on the river. Some good players have said calling is better so I'll defend pushing with some math.

1. Assuming he has AK 100% of the time and will fold to a check-push on the turn, you win $108 when you shove, lose $183 when he rivers you 16% of the time, and win $181 * x when he misses, where x is the probability that he sticks the rest in on the river. The EV of check-calling turn and river is
(.16)(-183) + (.84)(181)(x) = 152x - 29. In other words, he needs to bluff the river 90% of the time to make calling superior to shoving, which just isn't realistic IMO. A lot of the time he's just going to give up on the river because he doesn't have enough left to make a bluff likely to succeed. Thus making a turn shove +EV.

2. If you shove and he makes a tilt call some of the time with AK, that makes shoving an even more attractive option.

3. Obviously he doesn't have AK 100% of the time. Sometimes he has KK or AA. If he has these hands, shoving is clearly better than calling because you're getting stacked either way on a blank river but your 2 or 5 outs are very obvious so he might check behind or fold to an open-shove if you river him. On the other hand, he's clearly calling if you shove the turn so you'll win his whole stack when you river him.

Quote:
I went with my read and let him spew $130 in with ace high, for the magical jack to hit the river. Pot odds suck.
I read good he sucks out better i guess.
I think you played the turn bad and this comment is rationalizing a bad decision by blaming it on getting sucked out on.
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sauce123
Old 04-09-2007, 03:35 AM #17 (permalink)  
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mcatdog- vn post and I agree completely, specially when coupled with OP read that villain's range is heavily weighted towards AK.
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-09-2007, 09:10 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 the idea behind calling the turn was that he was taking an AA/KK type of line when i was pretty certain it was AK he had.
If for a moment we assume my read is good, i c/c the turn because i WAS certain he would spew the rest of the chips in on any river regardless of improving.
Simple put, my read > his attempt to represent a big pair.

However, having seen mcatdog's arguemnt over pushing i think it was the better option, but certainly i wasnt trying to rationalise getting sucked out as a reason to play a bad turn. As noted, i thought my turn call was good because he auto spews all in on any river because he cant win without betting if he has AK and blanks the river anyway.
I think there may a discussion point as to whether this is a 100% certainty if the board blanks or is a Q, afterall after putting $130 in on two streets and with a pot of $260 in the middle are you going to tell me hes going to check behind with AK? (assume he has ace high not a big pair at this point) At the very worst he may think he can push me off AK if he thinks i have that and not AQ.
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Rondavu
Old 04-09-2007, 12:16 PM #19 (permalink)  
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LOL at river call.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Galapogos
Old 04-09-2007, 01:40 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 People can learn so much by reading mcatdog's posts. You always do an excellent job of explaining the what and why of situations.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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Genitruc
Old 04-09-2007, 07:25 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point
 7 outs = 14% equity for his AK so 85% of the time he's still got nuthin on river.

+ We can usually value-bet vs KK if we hit a Q and AK if we hit an A (not like he's gonna easily fold when we improve IF he has KK...)

+ Based on OP's read, villain was capable of spewing w AK unimproved on river.

If we can fold the river most of the time when it's a J then I think the turn call is optimal.
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-09-2007, 07:48 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
LOL at river call.
Agreed, but someone would have noted the pot odds arguement versus a solid read. I also wanted to spend 70 to know i was right
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mcatdog
Old 04-10-2007, 04:48 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
People can learn so much by reading mcatdog's posts. You always do an excellent job of explaining the what and why of situations.
Thanks, but very good at math and logic + being mediocre at hand reading = never getting over the hump as a player. In other words a lot of times I realize the right decision when thinking about it afterwards but I don't apply it that well in real time.

Miffed if you're sure he's going spew the rest on the river, calling is obviously fine, but it just seems unlikely to me to assume that he'll always do it. People fire two barrels and give up on the river all the time.
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