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Schiplt
Old 07-04-2008, 03:46 AM     Post subject: first day at 200nl #1 (permalink)  
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no notes, but dude runs 28/8/2.4/200. Is this even a cbet? should I be b/f turn and c/f blanked river, or c/c and c/f a blank? This might takes some serious range forming, which I need some help on, and then need to decide what line is best. Bet Sizing...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($119.05)
BB ($203)
UTG ($357.85)
Hero ($207.75)
CO ($257.10)
Button ($216.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, CO calls $7, Button calls $7, 2 folds.

Flop: ($24) T, Q, T (3 players)
Hero bets $18, CO calls $18, Button folds.

Turn: ($60) A (2 players)
Hero bets $44, CO calls $44.

River: ($148) 3 (2 players) hero?
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asdpikas
Old 07-04-2008, 04:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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C-bet seems fine, u have outs, and cant just give up on the flop like that. villains cant really continue with most PPs or SCs.
Turn card is nice, but river is scary.
blocking bet should be done imho, fold to a raise.
His range pf is PPs and SCs mostly, including some high cards such as JTs, QTs, QJs, KQ, KJs

He just calls on flop which tells us nothing, he could be drawing to clubs/straight, just have Q, or have a monster and dont want to lose button by raising. We can eliminate all PPs lower than 99 and SCs without clubs or T. High cards are still there

On turn he just calls, if he had a monster like QT or AT, once the button is gone, he should raise, as the board has probably hit you big, and you have bet both streets. Better to raise there than risk a cooler coming on the river freezing action. The A is a good place for him to bet.

As played, Ax of clubs is a big possibility
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BankItDrew
Old 07-04-2008, 04:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 i can't think of any hands that want to put more chips into the middle on the river, that you also beat.


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Galapogos
Old 07-04-2008, 04:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Probably c/f river. Not a lot of hands he should be betting that we beat if we c/c. And not a lot of hands should be calling that we beat if we bet.

You really should have some reads on this guy after 200 hands.


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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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Marshall28
Old 07-04-2008, 04:40 AM #5 (permalink)  
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value bet river. fold if he jams cuz he has a flush. cant just check the river cuz it means u r giving up on the hand and are forced to fold to any aggression at all. if you are merging often enough u should be getting looked up by worse aces or Qx occasionally.
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silu73
Old 07-04-2008, 05:10 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I like a small value bet on the river but I would to a shove.
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asdpikas
Old 07-04-2008, 05:24 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
i can't think of any hands that want to put more chips into the middle on the river, that you also beat.
KQ, AJo with Ac??, QJo with Jc??, 9d8d...
those might call a blocking bet (98 would fold), fold to big bet, bet us out if we check...
no reads makes this hard. I think b/f makes it easier on the river.
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will641
Old 07-04-2008, 05:57 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 i would only bet this river if i thought he looks me up with Ax thinking hes chopping. not that theres really any Ax's in his range anyways. i think this is c/f. i mean he is called two streets on a super drawy board, and the flush hits.

this is definitely one of those boards that i would not cbet. we have a lot of tainted outs far too often. especially into two people. if you had a club blocker it would prolly be closer.

lets think of all the hands that beat us that call/shove the river: AQs, AQo, ATs, ATo, QTs, QTo, KJs, KJo, JTo/s, T9 o/s, any fd he may have, etc.

hands that likely call a small bet that we beat: AJ o/s, KQ o/s, QJ o/s, Q9 o/s.

i dont see how betting here could be +EV.
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asdpikas
Old 07-04-2008, 06:40 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by will641
i dont see how betting here could be +EV.
what about being bet out of the pot if we have the best hand? How could we take that into account?
sure, most of his hands beat us, but the blocking bet may win us the whole pot if we do have the best hand, whereas we lose relatively small if he shoves and we fold. By checking i think we're telegraphing we give up, and he will fire a lot and we cant call.
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Galapogos
Old 07-04-2008, 07:24 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by will641
i dont see how betting here could be +EV.
what about being bet out of the pot if we have the best hand? How could we take that into account?
sure, most of his hands beat us, but the blocking bet may win us the whole pot if we do have the best hand, whereas we lose relatively small if he shoves and we fold. By checking i think we're telegraphing we give up, and he will fire a lot and we cant call.
What did he call 2 streets with that bluffs this river?


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I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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asdpikas
Old 07-04-2008, 07:29 AM #11 (permalink)  
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the same hands we beat?
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Schiplt
Old 07-04-2008, 07:44 AM #12 (permalink)  
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-the only two hands that I could see him getting here with that we beat are KQ and QJ, maybe Q9 (no flush) and he prbly folds these to any river bet besides something like 1/3 pot, which by then Im in so deep Im almost commited to call if he shoves.

-him holding any ace that we beat other than another AK seems highly unlikey to me, with him calling the flop with the button stll to act and all, so there is no value there.

-and i still dont get how we can block this river, I have a pot size stack, and for sure am not b/f it, and his turn call seemed kinda strange to me, idk what hes really doing that with.

-and, he might even check behind hands that are gonna snap call river bets, T9, AQ.

that being said, wouldn't c/f have to be the best option?
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BigPapi
Old 07-04-2008, 09:29 AM #13 (permalink)  
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I agree on b/f being the best, but not in this case. We have a potsize bet left and I dont see any amount that we could b/f with.

I dont think checking necessarily telegraphs giving up if we've shown we're capable of c/r river bets.
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Galapogos
Old 07-04-2008, 03:10 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
the same hands we beat?
You expect him to turn QJ/KQ into a bluff on this board? What's the point? And every other hand that he calls two streets with now beats us. So you want to put money in on the river while his range is now crushing us in the hopes that he's betting a hand he shouldn't be betting?


Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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asdpikas
Old 07-04-2008, 03:28 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
the same hands we beat?
You expect him to turn QJ/KQ into a bluff on this board? What's the point? And every other hand that he calls two streets with now beats us. So you want to put money in on the river while his range is now crushing us in the hopes that he's betting a hand he shouldn't be betting?
wow, chill dude...
i dont expect anything, I was asking and discussing options
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will641
Old 07-04-2008, 03:47 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by will641
i dont see how betting here could be +EV.
what about being bet out of the pot if we have the best hand? How could we take that into account?
sure, most of his hands beat us, but the blocking bet may win us the whole pot if we do have the best hand, whereas we lose relatively small if he shoves and we fold. By checking i think we're telegraphing we give up, and he will fire a lot and we cant call.
lol, i doubt this guy is that smart. i dooubt hes capable of turning anything into a bluff on this board, with the pot this big.

and also i dont even think he takes QJ/KQ this far, and most certainly will NOT be bluffing this river.
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will641
Old 07-04-2008, 03:59 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schiplt
-him holding any ace that we beat other than another AK seems highly unlikey to me, with him calling the flop with the button stll to act and all, so there is no value there.
the only Ax combo's he has are AcXc, and guess what, that just made the flush. its conceivable that he has AJ, but unlikely, and i dont think he calls a bet.

Quote:
-and i still dont get how we can block this river, I have a pot size stack, and for sure am not b/f it, and his turn call seemed kinda strange to me, idk what hes really doing that with.
we can block this river, but i think its stupid. you can get away with folding pretty easy if he shoves.

Quote:
-and, he might even check behind hands that are gonna snap call river bets, T9, AQ.

that being said, wouldn't c/f have to be the best option?
yes it is.
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Galapogos
Old 07-04-2008, 03:59 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galapogos
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
the same hands we beat?
You expect him to turn QJ/KQ into a bluff on this board? What's the point? And every other hand that he calls two streets with now beats us. So you want to put money in on the river while his range is now crushing us in the hopes that he's betting a hand he shouldn't be betting?
wow, chill dude...
i dont expect anything, I was asking and discussing options
Umm, for the record, I never get heated on message boards, and was simply discussing the situation as well. ?'s do not equal !'s.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-04-2008, 04:00 PM #19 (permalink)  
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 Cbet, bet turn, c/f river. Now if the 3 isnt a club the decision is pretty tough.
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dsaxton
Old 07-04-2008, 09:34 PM #20 (permalink)  
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I don't see much value in betting this river, and I also don't see many worse hands betting if you check, so a check-fold seems appropriate.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 07-05-2008, 05:13 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 I would c/c the turn but that's a little picky. He's not floating any Ax hands besides AJ and i'd find it hard to believe that he calls any Qx here or worse. If he checks behind the turn you can safely v-bet a lot of rivers.

This is a river c/f as played.
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nutsinho
Old 07-05-2008, 06:02 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Massimo
I would c/c the turn but that's a little picky. He's not floating any Ax hands besides AJ and i'd find it hard to believe that he calls any Qx here or worse. If he checks behind the turn you can safely v-bet a lot of rivers.

This is a river c/f as played.
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