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griffey24
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01-06-2007, 08:08 PM
Post subject: Facing push..Is this close.. or auto fold?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Villain is at 25/14/2.2 over reasonably small sample, only about 200 hands...
Villain is on a few of my tables, and has probably noticed me raising quite a bit, and then folding to players pushing back over me, or raising over my raises.
I put villain on an over-pair, or over cards (AK). I don't see him pushing a set in this spot.
Is this a close call?.. auto-call? or fold?
(oh and yes I realize Im playing short in this hand, I had just lost the previous hand and didn't get a chance to top up before this hand started)
Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $116.75
UTG+1: $100
CO: $111.75
Button: $206.75
Hero: $66.75
BB: $96
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with  
3 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero calls, BB folds.
Flop:    ($7, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4, Hero raises to $12, Button raises all-in $203.75, Hero ?? ($51.75 to call, with $82.75 in pot already)
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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I put villain's range at 44 and 66+. If this is the case, according to Pokerstove your equity is 35%. Though you did say you didn't think a set would push, I added it anyways because you never know. If you are adament on him not having a set, then you are still only at 36% equity for 88+. Your allin would be 63% of the pot. I believe this to be a fold. I'm not smart but thought I'd give it a shot anyways.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.
btw, if you think he might raise a lead from you with garbage, it would've been better to lead then 3bet all in. or if he's weak/passive you could just check-call.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Yeah...knew I forgot something...thanks, benny.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.
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When I said I had 51.75 to call in a 82.75 pot, the 82.75 actually included villains call, and villain's raise up to 51.75 (which is all that I can meet). So assuming that this is the case, am I no longer priced in to call? (51.75/134.5 = 0.38)
I was pretty sure that any 8,3 or 5 were safe outs for me (10 outs), so I figured I had about 40% chance of hitting, hence I was wondering how thin a call would be here..
Thanks for the help so far guys!
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Harry
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Philly
Posts: 722
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I fold.
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PSU Class of 2011 weeeeeeee!
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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don't check raise flop
calling or folding to the push is trivial
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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don't check raise flop
calling or folding to the push is trivial
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Why don't you c/r the flop?
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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don't check raise flop
calling or folding to the push is trivial
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Why don't you c/r the flop? |
because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Quote:
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don't check raise flop
calling or folding to the push is trivial
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Why don't you c/r the flop? |
because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no. |
Hmm... am I missing something here? I think I would/might check raise a set here! Are you saying that we should lead a set, as opposed to check raising a set?
You're claiming that a check raise seems weak, whereas I would associate a check-raise out of position as a strong play ....
I'd appreciate a further explanation, since my logic is clearly the opposite of a few posters so far.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with
I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all worse hands and scarcely fold better hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds
Edit: oops, i wrote part 2a backwards
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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benny999
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,567
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Quote:
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when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with
I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds
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very good post imo.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,339
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
very good post imo.
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The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often.
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
Quote:
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when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with
I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds
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very good post imo. |
I agree, very well explained nutsinho. I guess I often c/r flops to regain control of the betting, but in this case I'd probably be better off getting to showdown or the river as cheaply as possible.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
very good post imo.
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The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often. |
So how do we get into these spots less often? Leading the flop? so we can be the player that pushes, as opposed to villain?
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