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Genitruc

11-27-2008, 03:13 AM Post subject: Exploitability

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 4,463

Genitruc is an unknown quantity at this point

Toughest spot from a long session today.

Villain is a straightforward, winning reg.

We haven't had any crazy history over a few K hands of play together up uptil a bunch of preflop spewing today (I 4-bet folded once where he claimed to have KQ, then he 5 bet shoved 22 and held over my AKs)

Eff stacks are 100bb's at nl500

I raise from CO w AJo, he calls from SB

Flop is

He checks, I think and bet 24 into 37, he quickly raises to 65.

I think for a long time and consider folding then I call with

for BD FD

turn is an offsuit 5 he checks, I check quickly behind.

River is

board is now

He thinks and checks, I bet 120ish into 160ish, he instashoves for 300 more...

Help.

when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?

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technician

11-27-2008, 03:44 AM

#2 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 70

personally i think thats how he would play if he had the Q9 but from what you say what do u think the odds are of him seeing the flop with Q9?

possible he has a PP and has the full house?

not likely but even possibly he has the AJ also.

i would be finding hard to call he going by what you saying.

but then what do i know i play micro stakes lol

Numbr2intheWorld

11-27-2008, 05:54 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 3,561

Numbr2intheWorld will become famous soon enough

-He's probably not c/r bluffing the flop that much especially since he can't have the nfd.
- it's a small jam, and FE seems slimmish to an online regular

But:

-you have a J.
- he could maybe possibly have a worse J since it seems profitable to shove KJ here.
- You have the top of your range so you're making a ridiuclously explotable bet if you fold.
- He has shown the ability to get his stack in light.

I mean if you have really never seen him river c/r in thousands of hands i'd lean towards a fold. But i probably call cause its the mega-top of your range

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Genitruc

11-27-2008, 06:28 AM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 4,463

thx max.

u r good at online pokerz and I'm encouraged that your post mirrors my conflicted thought process during the hand.

The thing that really bothered me was "if I fold this hand, wtf do I call with?"

when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?

Irisheyes

11-27-2008, 07:44 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: over there

Posts: 3,708

I agree with max but I ant to add that betting this flop is a pretty big mistake given that you had to think for a long time when he check/raises.

Also if you fold the river no one I play with will exploit that but lets not open that can of worms.

nutsinho

11-27-2008, 07:55 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt

Posts: 3,280

bet/call or check the river its as simple as that.

My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.

griffey24

11-27-2008, 01:27 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2006

Location: Toronto'ish

Posts: 4,611

From villain's perspective, b/f this river doesn't come across as exploitable I don't think. Every single draw that you could have been b/c flop with, missed, so as far as he knows you can easily be b/f missed draws here and not AJ.

As for the hand in question, if the turn was a J and he c/bombed you I'd be much more likely to fold. The board is so draw heavy, that I wouldn't expect someone to get tricky here that often on turn by checking strength.

(side note: I know this particular villain very well, and I think he has you here a very high percentage of the time)

Genitruc

11-27-2008, 02:22 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Posts: 4,463

ya Irish I had check back vulnerable 1 pair hands in pos a few times in a row so I decided to "mix it up" by betting the flop... which lead me to elect the call after he CR me. Should've included this in OP.

when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?

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