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Muzzard

04-08-2008, 11:21 PM Post subject: EV calculation

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2006

Location: Cheshire, UK

Posts: 1,843

Hey, I'm kinda struggling with EV calculations. I want to know if the turn cal is +EV assuming I stack him everytime I hit my outs.

If he has a set I'm 22%, KK 30% and AA 22%. Can someone show me how to o the calc? 12.7 left in the stack after turn call.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Profiles and Stacks:

UTG ($25.00) 20.0/6.7/3.0 (15)

Hero ($30.40) 15.8/11.2/0.8 (196)

CO ($28.15) 20.9/6.1/1.5 (196)

BTN ($14.00) 57.6/10.6/1.1 (132)

SB ($26.55) 30.8/5.1/1.1 (78)

BB ($98.15) 49.5/12.8/5.8 (196)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1

UTG raises to $1, Hero calls $1, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop:

($5.1, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $3.6, Hero calls $3.6, 2 folds, BB folds

Turn:

($12.3, 2 players)
UTG bets $7.7, Hero calls $7.7

[Results Hidden]

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ThelVlaster

04-09-2008, 02:17 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 222

Ok let me try

According to pokerstove
Board: Tc 7d 3d Qc
Dead:
equity win tie
Hand 0: 22.727% 22.73% 00.00% { AdJd }
Hand 1: 77.273% 77.27% 00.00% { 33 }
---
equity win tie
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% { AdJd }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% { AA }
---
equity win tie
Hand 0: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% { AdJd }
Hand 1: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% { KK }
--

I think it would help to consider what his holdings are, and how often he is holding them? I won't consider that, for sake of simplicity

I don't know if you should include your bet in the denominator or not, so I put both down below
7.7/(7.7+7.7+12.3+12.7) = 19.06% equity needed

7.7/(7.7+12.3+12.7) = 23.55% equity needed

Another calculation:

Ev = .7727(-7.7) + .2273(40.4) = -5.94979 + 9.18292 = +3.23313 EV

Ev = .7727(-7.7) + .2273(32.7) = -5.94979 + 7.43271 = +1.48292 EV

Like I said I don't know whether to include your call in the total winnings or to exclude it

Obviously assuming that you win his stack everytime you hit is a BIG assumption... sorry for being unsure on my calculations

ThelVlaster

04-09-2008, 02:21 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 222

Ok I thought this one over and I want to recalculate it...

First I'm going to set up some assumptions:
1.) If you hit your flush, villian will call all-in 60% of the time
2.) If you hit your gutshot, villian will call all-in 80% of the time
3.) If you hit your ace, you are good 40% of the time (and decided to call/value bet AI)
4.) Villian has a set 25% of the time (for redraw calc)

Obviously the following calculations are largely dependent on the above, and if you would like to tweak them, let me know
Edit: While crunching through the calculations, I created a spreadsheet which will allow for easy manipulation of the above assumptions, and quickly find total EV

You have 7 flush outs that don't pair the board, 46 cards unknown, 7/46 = 0.152
EV = (.152 x .6 x 32.7) + (.152 x .4 x 20) = +4.203
EV = (villian call AI) + (Take pot on river)

2 flush outs that pair the board, 2/46 = 0.043
EV = (.043 x .75 x .6 x 32.7) + (.043 x .75 x .4 x 20) + (.043 x .25 x -20.4) = +0.679
EV = (calls AI w/o FH) + (Take pot) + (Lose turn and river bets vs. FH)

3 non diamond Kings, 3/46 = 0.065
EV = (.065 x .8 x 32.7) + (.065 x .2 x 20) = +1.967
EV = (villian call AI) + Take pot on river)

3 Aces, 3/46 = 0.065
EV = (.065 x .4 x 32.7) + (.065 x .6 x -20.4) = +0.055

You brick everything and fold, 1 - (15/46) = 0.674
EV = (.674 x -7.7) = -5.189

Total EV = +1.71
Everytime this exact scenario plays out, you can expect to earn $1.71

badgers

04-09-2008, 03:19 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2007

Location: Spewing

Posts: 3,372

12/46 ~ 3:1 you're getting about 2.5:1 so call for implied odds.

Every time you hit you need to make up the extra 0.5:1 so you need to make $3.50 on the river on average.

That's how I'd do it in game which is hopefully useful.

3k post - Return of the blog!

Ash256

04-09-2008, 05:19 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: UK

Posts: 1,760

ThelVlaster, meet www.holdemranger.com

Listen to my music

reprisal

04-09-2008, 05:50 PM

#6 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2008

Posts: 106

hold'em ranger looks pretty sweet

ThelVlaster

04-14-2008, 03:52 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 222

Nice find, Ash... I had been using pokerstove, so this should be a nice transition. I will have to play around with it when I get a chance.

While I don't think it is an end-all-be-all of poker math or EV calc, (what is) I do think it will help cut down time and enable more analysis than previously available.

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