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Easy fold...or call for one more card?

  
 
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Chopper
Old 11-25-2006, 01:26 AM     Post subject: Easy fold...or call for one more card? #1 (permalink)  
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Location: St. Louis, MO
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Chopper
Villain has been in my grill all game and seems to be semi-loose and aggressive. should i make a stand here or cut bait w/ the over and flush draw on the board?

i want help understanding where i am +EV to call (prolly not here) in a 6max game (iow, how often does QQ win/hold up here?), or when it is not even right to call a "maniacal" player that seems to have me pegged for a nit (future table image?). bottom line is i have no problem "re-popping" him, but cant confidently put him on the draw. i figure it 50/50 that he has K-rag.

in a fr game, i get away from this 95% of the time...with no regrets. how different is 6max post flop?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
HERO: $9.80
UTG+1: $14.95
CO: $11.05
Button: $7.65
SB: $8.80
BB: $4.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is UTG with Q Q
HERO raises to $0.4, UTG+1 raises to $0.7, 4 folds, HERO raises to $2.4, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 6 K 9 ($4.95, 2 players)
HERO checks, UTG+1 bets $1.9, HERO??

i figure i established initiative pre-flop...and he leads out anyway?! should i have led out on the flop, and folded to a raise, or was the pre-flop 3bet good enough to know i am beat here?
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Harry
Old 11-25-2006, 02:56 AM #2 (permalink)  
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c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
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andy-akb
Old 11-25-2006, 04:55 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
Are we value betting or bluffing? Do we really need to protect against a flush in a 4bet pot?
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Chopper
Old 11-25-2006, 06:45 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
Are we value betting or bluffing? Do we really need to protect against a flush in a 4bet pot?
so, you are saying villain has a K?

i guess my original question is: Is it a better than 50/50 shot he has the K and i am way behind? if he has the K, i am an 85/15 dog here. if he has the draw, i am only 50-60% to win the hand.

if i got this correct, that makes me about 25-33% to win the hand if i cant get the correct read. because if i am right, and he has the K, i win 1-2 times out of 10. if i am wrong, and he has the draw, i win 5-6 times out of 10. given the 2 biggest possibilities that he could hold, i would win 6-8 times out of 20...therefore, he wins more than half the time, and the correct move is to fold...yes?

does that make sense?
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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andy-akb
Old 11-25-2006, 04:14 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
Are we value betting or bluffing? Do we really need to protect against a flush in a 4bet pot?
so, you are saying villain has a K?

i guess my original question is: Is it a better than 50/50 shot he has the K and i am way behind? if he has the K, i am an 85/15 dog here. if he has the draw, i am only 50-60% to win the hand.

if i got this correct, that makes me about 25-33% to win the hand if i cant get the correct read. because if i am right, and he has the K, i win 1-2 times out of 10. if i am wrong, and he has the draw, i win 5-6 times out of 10. given the 2 biggest possibilities that he could hold, i would win 6-8 times out of 20...therefore, he wins more than half the time, and the correct move is to fold...yes?

does that make sense?
Im not entirely sure I follow what you are saying. Are you saying that he either has a draw or a king?

I was just trying to say that I dont really see the point in betting the flop. If he has a K, he isnt folding. Chances of him having a draw are very slim so we shouldnt need to bet to protect against it. If he has an ace he is drawing to 3 outs, so again, there isnt really a need to protect against it. C/C is fine on this flop, on the turn it is more read dependent but I am c/cing most turns and giving up on most rivers unimproved.
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gabe
Old 11-25-2006, 05:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
Are we value betting or bluffing? Do we really need to protect against a flush in a 4bet pot?
its like a blocking bet---not really for value or a bluff
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Chopper
Old 11-25-2006, 06:40 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Chopper
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chopper
Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry
c-bet here. He is not "leading out" if you check to him.
Are we value betting or bluffing? Do we really need to protect against a flush in a 4bet pot?
so, you are saying villain has a K?

i guess my original question is: Is it a better than 50/50 shot he has the K and i am way behind? if he has the K, i am an 85/15 dog here. if he has the draw, i am only 50-60% to win the hand.

if i got this correct, that makes me about 25-33% to win the hand if i cant get the correct read. because if i am right, and he has the K, i win 1-2 times out of 10. if i am wrong, and he has the draw, i win 5-6 times out of 10. given the 2 biggest possibilities that he could hold, i would win 6-8 times out of 20...therefore, he wins more than half the time, and the correct move is to fold...yes?

does that make sense?
Im not entirely sure I follow what you are saying. Are you saying that he either has a draw or a king?

I was just trying to say that I dont really see the point in betting the flop. If he has a K, he isnt folding. Chances of him having a draw are very slim so we shouldnt need to bet to protect against it. If he has an ace he is drawing to 3 outs, so again, there isnt really a need to protect against it. C/C is fine on this flop, on the turn it is more read dependent but I am c/cing most turns and giving up on most rivers unimproved.
the point i was trying to illustrate (prolly not well) was that his 2 most likely holdings, i thought, were the K or a flush draw. sure, he could have anything else from a set to complete trash, but i put him in the range of K/draw. so, i was trying to calculate the best play. i figured half the time he has a draw, my outcome is this, and the other half, my outcome is this. therefore, do i win enough money enough times when i am right/ahead (on the draw) to overcome the money i lose when i am wrong/behind (K).
i am prolly not very clear still...sorry.

i dont agree with the fact that he isnt likely to be on a draw because the pot was 3bet pf and he bet on the flop...after i showed weakness. i think the nut draw is likely to do this with a pair (As6s) or a suited overcard (AsJs). remember this guy is semi-loose and aggressive...and has been in my face in almost every pot i've been in (original read). i think you have to consider that he is trying to "hit the homerun" against me here w/ the flush. i guess he could have played 66 this way pf, too. i think he was hoping i had AK or AA and couldnt get away from the hand, but i cant rule out the "chasing." in my experience, people will chase draws HU (and raise them) more often in 6max than fr. i used to c/r and rr my nut draws over at party almost without fail...because i knew i would get paid when they hit, as the villains thought i couldnt possibly play a draw that way, and therefore, put me on TP or a set. this especially works when you check off the flush card when it hits on the turn...but i digress.

i appreciate the discussion b/c i am trying to adjust my game to 6max, and have not been doing well as of late. i would like to blame variance, but have to think my textbook TAG style in fr is getting the crap knocked out of it in SH post flop play, too.

i will continue to post hands and, hopefully, you guys can help me get my head screwed on straight for 6max play, too.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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